This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
College Baseball Betting: Golden Spikes Award Futures and Conference Champion Bets
It's happy days for JohnnyVTV. Not only because the College Baseball season returns on February 16th, but sportsbooks are finally opening up the futures markets for the sport. Over the last few years, it's primarily been "Team to Win CWS," but now there are some goodies out there. I've already previewed "Team to Win/Make CWS," so let's look at the more intriguing ones like the Golden Spikes Award and Conference odds.
Check out the latest college baseball odds at Caesars before the season starts. If you don't have a Caesars account, you can sign up with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for up to $1,000 on your first bet with code ROTO1000.
Best Bets to Win the Golden Spikes Award
Before I list who my top bets are, it's worth noting I did some extensive research into this market as it is the first time in history a sportsbook has ever published in this market. Although they limit you like a high school kid who's afraid to lose a nickel, everybody say thank you to FanDuel for being the trailblazer on this. I have requested this market on DraftKings, but until that happens, there's only one book to shop at. Guidelines for betting the Golden Spikes Award.
- Try to stay away from pitcher-only guys. Since 2010, only two pure pitchers have won, and one of them was Trevor Bauer (Kevin Kopps the other). Paul Skenes just concluded one of the best college seasons of all time as a pitcher and didn't even win. Pitchers have their own award with National Pitcher of the Year, so it's like in the MLB when a pitcher wins the MVP. It's not impossible, but rare. There's one arm I would sprinkle, and I'll get who and why later.
- Avoid Non-Power 5 players. Since 2011, only two of these players have won, and one of them was Kris Bryant (the other being Kyle Lewis). It takes a huge effort from a mid-major player to dethrone a Power 5 guy. The only player in this description who might have a shot is Northeastern's OF Mike Sirota (+3700) since he already has a lot of hype surrounding his top 10 draft stock in July.
- Target players who have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Since 2007, only two players have won the Golden Spikes and missed the tournament, excluding 2010 Bryce Harper (played at a JUCO). Winning makes a huge impact on the voting, sort of like the NFL MVP.
- Target draft-eligible players. Since 2000, only three winners were not draft eligible/didn't get drafted. It's a lot more difficult for underclassmen/younger players to win. Because they're already at a disadvantage, it takes a monster season to be a real contender and winner.
- Bet a player who has a good chance of dominating statistically. After you sift past all of the above criteria, you still need to pick a player who will put together one heck of a season.
After taking a look at this, you have narrowed down your search a ton. Let's see which of the players who fit these criteria make my list.
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Jac Caglianone, TWP, Florida +250
Not trying to brag, but I believe I was the first one to tweet out the odds for this award when they first dropped. At the time, the list was a lot smaller, so the odds were different. Over time more players were added to the market. The favorite is and has been none other than the two-way phenom from Florida, Jac Caglianone. At the open, I dished out 5/1 for 1.5 units simply because he's the best player in the country. He broke the single-season homerun record (33) and had 87 K's in 74.2 IP a season ago. The number inflated to +650 briefly, but has since plummeted to the current number. While I believe Cags will certainly be in the mix, the number is too low to bet at this current price.
JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia +800
Wetherholt is one of my favorite players in the country. I was extremely vocal last year regarding his Golden Spikes snub. Although he led the country with a .449 average to go along with 36 steals, 24 doubles, and 16 boppers, he wasn't even a finalist. I thought he was more deserving than the actual winner, Dylan Crews. Nevertheless, this is a good number on a player who is drawing serious steam to be the number one pick in the 2024 draft after converting from 2B/3B to shortstop. If he even comes close to replicating his 2023 season, it'll be hard to deny him two years in a row. Bet on Wetherholt.
Vance Honeycutt,CF, UNC +1500
In my opinion, there is no better bang for your buck in this market than Vance Honeycutt. After blazing on the scene as a freshman in 2022 with a 25 HR/29 SB season, his production took a major dip last year. Coming into the 2023 season, he was drawing a lot of attention to be the top pick in the 2024 draft. Because of a bad sophomore campaign, a lot of people have fallen out of love with him as even a top 10 pick. I think Honeycutt has a monster season in '24, one that will have him contending for this award. If he can come close to that freshman year and move that average from .296 to about .325, he'll have a great chance to win. One of the best athletes in the nation, 15/1 is too big of a number to not hit. He's my next generation Trea Turner.
Golden Spikes Longshots
Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M +4000
LaViolette's name is being discussed as a potential number-one pick in the 2025 draft. The 6'5" 228lb sophomore is dangerous. In his rookie campaign, he mashed 21 homers and 63 RBI's with 18 steals and a .287 average. You're probably wondering why I have an underclassman on here after reading number four on my list up top. LaViolette is one of the few players I believe can contend for the Golden Spikes despite being younger. If he is able to broach a 25 HR/25 SB season and flirt with a .325 average, then his name will be in the mix. The main reason I have him on the list is because originally his 75/1 price was outrageously wrong. Once I hit that number and tweeted it out, it was slashed to 40/1 within 48 hours. The current price is still too long to not sprinkle. My fair number is about 27/1.
Tyson Neighbors, RP, Kansas State +10000
Tyson Neighbors is another exception to my rule. As one of the best pitchers (and best closer) in the country, I thought it wouldn't hurt to sprinkle the potential first-rounder. While it is extremely difficult for a pitcher to win the award, my reference for his path is that of the 2021 winner, Kevin Kopps. Neighbors' outstanding 2023 featured a stat line of a 1.85 ERA, 5-1 record, 11 saves, and an 86 K/16 BB ratio across 48.2 innings. When Kopps won, he had a silly 12-1 mark with 11 saves, a 0.90 ERA, and a 131 K/18 BB ratio in 89.2 innings of work. Obviously there's a big disparity here. However, I think the K-State closer is an interesting flier in the event he is able to flirt with the type of season Kopps had. While it's not likely, I still think he has a chance to come close to it. At the current number, a little taste isn't a bad idea.
Sports betting is coming to North Carolina in March and those in the Tar Heel State can see the latest info on expected North Carolina betting promos here at RotoWire.
Power 5 Conference Winners
I tweeted out my favorite Power 5 Conference Winners bets but I will go into further detail here.
SEC: Arkansas +425/Tennessee +750
The Razorbacks are the team I'm all in on in 2024. My College World Series pick should be destined for greatness. The pitching is elite behind Friday night guy, Hagen Smith. It's a pitching staff that's about seven great arms deep. The key will be how well their hitting gels after losing five of their top bats from a season ago. Arkansas brought in a few good freshmen and transfers, so I'm not worried about the lineup. Despite playing the best conference in the sport, they are the class of the SEC. This number has moved significantly after I gave it out as a two-unit play at +550 a couple weeks ago. Nonetheless, +425 is still enough value to fire a full unit on this team.
Tennessee has been one of the best programs in College Baseball over the last three seasons. It's usually not a bad idea to back them in the futures markets. The Vols have been famed for their pitching, which took a hit in the offseason after losing stars Chase Dollander (Rockies top pick in 2023) and Chase Burns (transferred to Wake Forest). The team still flaunts JR Drew Beam, who now assumes the Friday night role.
UT will call on their other talented arms and transfers to step up. Offensively, it's a team that will be much improved from '23 with the additions of Billy Amick and Cannon Peebles via the portal. I gave this out at +825, but the now-+750 is definitely playable. Look out for the Vols to make some noise this year.
ACC: Virginia +650/Duke +900/Florida State +1600
UVA is coming off a trip to Omaha. It's a program that consistently turns out elite talent. Even after losing two of their best players in C Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof, the Cavs still sport some great hitters like SS Griff O'Ferral, C Ethan Anderson, and 3B Casey Saucke. The pitching also took a hit when a few of their top arms left, but they have some good hurlers filling the void. With so many people drooling over Wake and their now -110 price, they're forgetting some of the better teams in the nation. I think Wake Forest is heading for a down year, which puts UVA in prime position to usurp the crown.
The best bang for your buck in the ACC is definitely the Duke Blue Devils. After losing to Virginia in the Super Regionals last year, they're ready to compete once again. The offense lost a couple key players, but often finds different combinations to get the job done. The team is known for their deep pitching staff led by potential first rounder, Jonathan Santucci and top reliever Fran Oschell. They welcome two-way freshman Kyle Johnson to the mix, who is expected to be an elite producer. Because Duke has one of the best staffs in the NCAA, they will be a real threat to win the ACC. I gave them out as a half-unit play at +1250, but +900 is still too big of a number.
Florida State may be a longshot sprinkle for me at this number, but I really like the Seminoles in 2024. 2023 was a disaster 23-31 season in former Notre Dame skipper Link Jarrett's first year, but that was expected for the young team. Jarrett is a winning coach, who engineered the Irishmen's big 2022 run to the College World Series after thwarting the wagon that was the Vols in the Supers. This team has three legit boppers in Cam Smith, James Thibbs, and Jamie Ferrer. They also brought in a couple good pitchers to bolster the staff. FSU will need the pitching to improve on their team ERA of 5.75, but this program is prime for a turnaround 2024. A lot of people are sleeping on them, but don't be surprised to see them show out in the ACC.
BIG 12: TCU +300/Kansas State +700
The biggest threat to the Cinderella Horned Frogs is most likely the Texas Longhorns (+450). After a magical run to Omaha last year, I love TCU to build on that success in 2024. Although they lost their best player in Braden Taylor, this team still has enough offensive firepower to score runs this year. The biggest improvement was grabbing two good transfers in Ben Hampton and two-way Payton Tolle. It's a squad that has a great quartet on the mound in Kole Klecker, Tolle, Hampton, and Ben Abeldt. I had TCU down at +375, but 3/1 is a solid number. I have the Frogs making it back to the College World series this year.
One of my sleepers this season is the Kansas State Wildcats. They were snubbed by the committee last year, so they'll have a fire in their belly. You've heard me talk about Tyson Neighbors, but yet to hear about their best bat INF Kaelen Culpepper. It's a team that should be able to score some runs. At the end of the day, it will come down to the starting rotation, but I believe it's a team fueled by rejection that finds its way to the College World Series. With many involved in the fight between TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma State, they're sleeping on the Wildcats.
BIG 10: Indiana +250
Few teams in any conference have moved more aggressively than Indiana has in the past 10 days. I grabbed the Hoosiers at +700 while Iowa was being talked about as a CWS sleeper. The dramatic price cut still doesn't matter to me because the Big 10 will come down to Indiana and Iowa. The Hoosiers are led by OF Devin Taylor coming off a stellar freshman season. It's a good program that has a nice balance of pitching and hitting talent. The most effective way to attack this particular market would be to heavily bet both teams since it's about an 85% chance one of the two win. If that happens, you'll come out with a profit.
PAC 12: Oregon State -110/USC +2000
Another aggressive mover would be the Oregon State Beavers. I dished them out as a two-unit play at +175, but that's long gone. I'm still not opposed to lay it at -110 though. The Beavers have one of the best lineups in the nation, led by projected top five pick Travis Bazzana. This offense has legitimately six really good bats. One of the other reasons I feel confident in this team is because of how weak the conference is. It's likely a down year for the PAC 12 and with OSU playing only two teams in Stanford and UCLA, they should skate to at least 45 wins. The pitching is a bit of a concern considering they don't have a legit Friday night starter and the team ERA was north of 5.00, but OSU has several veterans in this staff. The Beavs should steamroll through the conference in their last year as a member of it.
The USC Trojans are an interesting team for me this season. They put together a solid 2023 campaign that featured a 17-13 conference record. 34-23-1 is not bad by any stretch, but there's optimism to improve on that in '24. Although USC lost two weekend starters, they return their gem in Friday night guy, Caden Aoki. The Trojans get back a couple other arms I like as well. Not to mention, their best offensive weapon is back too. OF Austin Overn is a name to watch this year after he racked up an absurd 14 triples as a freshman. One of the bugaboos about this team is they will be traveling about an hour for their home games while their new digs are being built. I like USC to at least contend this year, so 20/1 is too big of a price to not sprinkle.
Bonus- Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina +200
You've seen my love for the Chanticleers in 2024 in my College World Series best bets piece. After breaking my heart in the Regionals a season ago, I have forgiveness in my heart for them. Coastal has been one of the best mid-major programs in the last two decades under Gary Gilmore. With Gilmore retiring after the season, I love this team to pull "one last ride" like Dominic Toretto for their skipper.
The Sun Belt is probably the top mid-major conference, but it's definitely Coastal's to lose. They have an elite offense despite losing two of their best players. The weakness is the pitching, but there's reason to believe they improve this year with a lot of returning guys coming back a year older. The Chants are one of my College World Series teams, and for that to happen they'll need to likely win the conference to be a hosting seed again.
The price is good, but an interesting way of betting this is similar to the BIG 10. It probably comes down to Coastal and the popular sleeper, Troy (+400). I'd say it's about an 80% chance of those two teams winning, so if you bet them both, you would turn a profit if it comes to fruition.
