The Wheelhouse: Closer Watch

With approximately one-quarter of the MLB season now in the books, it's time for the first in-season Closer Watch of 2017.

Let's begin with a skills/stats table, which is displaying stats for each pitcher over the past calendar year. The rankings are tiered, and the overall rank among all closers is noted in the second column on the left.

Aroldis Chapman is still in the table since his return could take place within the next three or four weeks. Zach Britton has been omitted (for now), but he would currently place in the lower portion of the fourth tier given the expected duration of his absence and the nature of his injury. Cam Bedrosian is also left out, though he could usurp Bud Norris in short order once he's back from the DL.

Tier 1

Prior to hitting the DL, Chapman would have ranked second only to Kenley Jansen on this list. Now Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are alone in the top tier. Last season, a quick return from a knee injury likely played a role in Kimbrel's career-worst full-season walk rate, and that problem has been non-existent in 2017 as he's surged back near the top of the strikeout rate leaderboards while cutting his walk rate to a tidy 0.96 BB/9 (3.1%) through 18.2 innings this season.

In most formats, Jansen and Kimbrel should return top-50 overall players via trade.

Tier 2

Greg Holland is near the top of the list of things I was completely wrong about for this season. His seemingly underwhelming showing during an offseason showcase while he was working through free agency left me to wonder if he was ever going to be the elite closer we saw during his time in Kansas City. Moreover, I expected Adam Ottavino's late-season success in the ninth inning to prompt the Rockies to make Holland a setup guy initially. Holland has looked excellent, showing elite swing-and-miss stuff, getting a lot of his outs on the ground, and keeping the ball in the yard through his first 18 appearances for Colorado.

Health is still a lingering concern with Wade Davis, but so far, so good. I like him slightly more than Seung Hwan Oh right now, as Trevor Rosenthal has vultured the occasional save chance from Oh.

Roberto Osuna has moved passed his spring health scare, and while his velocity is down slightly from the last two seasons, his strikeout rate and walk rate have both improved, giving him a career-best 28.8% K-BB% through 16 appearances.

Any notion that the Indians don't need Cody Allen seems misguided. The Cleveland rotation is loaded with arms that are prone to the five-and-fly, and the usage of Andrew Miller in front of Allen has been consistent. The only red flag with Allen is a slightly higher than desired walk rate, but everything else looks good, and unlike many of the other second-tier closers, there isn't an injury cloud to worry about at the present time.

Mark Melancon returned from the DL sooner than expected. His status as a top-10 closer has more to do with his job security and home park than his skills. The Giants are eight games below .500, but their inability to pile up runs makes them more likely to play a lot of close games. Fortunately, we now have clarity regarding the next-in-line option for save chances in San Francisco, as Derek Law filled in capably while Melancon was sidelined with an elbow injury. Prior to going on the DL, Melancon had allowed just one earned run in his last 10 appearances after a meltdown at Chase Field on Opening Day.

The uncertainty regarding Chapman's timetable makes it extremely difficult to price him right now. I'm erring on the side of optimism, which may be a mistake, but the skills continue to be so good that he may still yield a Top 100-125 overall player in a swap, despite being on the shelf.

Tier 3

Matt Bush is still on the rise, and it would hardly be surprising to see him 5-7 spots higher on this list in six weeks. The early-April shutdown due to a shoulder injury is getting further away in the rearview mirror, and the Rangers no longer seem spoiled for choice in terms of replacing Bush if he begins to falter.

Depending on where the Rays are at in two months, Alex Colome is one of many closers that could be shifted into a setup role for a new club. Along with Kelvin Herrera, Colome has been effective this season despite a significant drop in strikeouts. The past calendar year mark of 27.6% is getting dragged down by a 21.9% mark through 19 innings in 2017. Fortunately, the reduced strikeout rate has not been accompanied by a loss of velocity.

Since the joining the Mets in 2015, Reed has posted a WHIP below 1.00, with a combined 133:18 K:BB in 113.2 innings. Jeurys Familia won't return for at least three months, and he may not return this season at all. After taking the loss in Milwaukee in his first save chance since Familia went on the DL, Reed bounced back with two scoreless frames Wednesday in Arizona. Through 21 appearances this season, he still has not issued a walk.

On the surface, Ken Giles has taken a step forward from last season. He's done it despite a career-high walk rate (10.3%, 3.8 BB/9) and career-low strikeout rate (27.9%, 10.5 K/9). Fortunately, he's inducing more ground balls and keeping the ball in the yard, but the swinging-strike rate (12.6%, not surprisingly a career low) doesn't point to a surge in strikeouts on the horizon. Giles may be a very good closer for a long time, but perhaps he will always leave us wanting a bit more.

As noted above, Herrera has pitched well despite a significant drop in his strikeout rate this season. The Royals have taken all of the necessary steps to become sellers at the trade deadline, and Herrera is among their desirable assets. Imagine Herrera closing out games in D.C. for the final two months...it's easy if you try.

If Chapman's timetable extends beyond the early part of June, Dellin Betances could move up toward the top of Tier 2. His skills are surprisingly similar to Cody Allen, albeit with slightly more walks, and slightly more ground balls. At the very least, Betances could take Chapman's current place at the bottom of the group.

Tier 4

Raisel Iglesias has pitched more than one inning once in his last six appearances, and he's recorded all of the non-blowout saves since April 15. It will be interesting to see if the Reds dangle him at the trade deadline since he's owed less than $6 million annually through 2020. Thus far, Iglesias has worked through an increased walk rate by reducing the hard contact he's allowed, but his 12.4% BB% (4.22 BB/9) an issue.

Jim Johnson has been excellent thus far, and he was very cheap everywhere. I am, as they say, without shares. He still looks like a prime candidate to be dealt in July as the Braves are five games below .500 and eight back of the Nats in the AL East entering play Thursday.

Justin Wilson is more interesting than Jim Johnson, and his base skills could vault him into the second tier if he locks down the job in the coming weeks. If this is the end for Francisco Rodriguez, it's been a nice run.

Corey Knebel is getting the opportunity to replace Neftali Feliz in Milwaukee, and like many closers-in-waiting, his skills deficiency is an elevated walk rate. At a glance, his swinging-strike rate is too low, but that number has spiked from 7.7% to 12.7% this season as his fastball-curveball combo has been more effective than ever. If Knebel loses the job -- via injury or attrition -- it's easy to wonder if Jacob Barnes, Feliz, or Wily Peralta would be next in line. Peralta is very interesting as a reliever, since he has two very good pitches, and should see an uptick in velocity in short relief.

After trying to give Jeanmar Gomez another chance to begin the season, the Phillies quickly bounced from Joaquin Benoit to Hector Neris. Neris shouldered a heavy workload last season, and I'm keep an eye on his strikeout rate and home-run rate in the coming weeks, as those peripherals have been headed in the wrong direction this season. After dominating opposing hitters with his splitter a year ago, Neris hasn't been able to utilize that offering effectively through the first six-plus weeks of the season.

David Robertson has pitched well enough to garner interest from contending clubs via trade, but he's no longer the top-10 closer that he was during his peak. One other thing to keep in mind. Tommy Kahnle, who is the worst teammate LaTroy Hawkins ever had, might be the next man up if Nate Jones continues to battle arm injuries.

Tony Watson seems destined to work in a setup role for a contender by season's end, and even if he stays in Pittsburgh, he's continued to carry a suboptimal strikeout rate that has been accompanied by an increased walk rate this season (3.8 BB/9, 9.0%).

A.J. Ramos has done a nice job keeping the ball in the yard, but that's where the compliments end. His chances of closing elsewhere are slim, and like Watson, he has internal competition capable of taking away the job if he's not traded.

The Mariners' decision to remove Edwin Diaz from the closer role came as a big surprise. Entering the year, I saw a dominant young reliever with top-10 closer stuff. It's possible the demotion will be temporary, as the Mariners will turn to James Pazos, Steve Cishek, Nick Vincent, and the rest of their bullpen to figure it out while Diaz irons out a mechanical problem without the pressure of working the ninth inning.

Brad Brach is a perfectly capable late-inning reliever, but there are questions as to his level of job security while Zach Britton is on the shelf. He's fringy as a member of this tier as a result.

Tier 5

The extremely low strikeout rate continues to drive me away from Brandon Kintzler, but maybe that is a mistake? He's a ground ball machine, and he doesn't hurt himself with walks, which goes a long way in hanging onto a ninth-inning job when there is a short list of viable alternatives to push him in the Minnesota bullpen right now.

Norris is ranked this slow because of the uncertainty regarding his hold on the job once Bedrosian and Street are healthy. If Norris loses the job by virtue of Bedrosian returning from the DL, it won't be for lack of ability. Norris' full-time shift to the bullpen could lead another club to give him a chance to finish games down the road even if he's not the Angels' preferred option as the season progresses.

With Santiago Casilla, Brandon Maurer, Matt Albers, and Fernando Rodney, it's more about the next-in-line options than anything else.

Ryan Madson has been more effective than Casilla so far, and Sean Doolittle is hurt again, so Madson appears to be the handcuff of choice in Oakland.

Maurer was pitching well early on this season, to the point that Carter Capps' slow recovery from Tommy John was opening up the door for Maurer to have a longer hold on the job than expected. Capps has been throwing at extended spring training in Arizona after a disappointing stint with Triple-A El Paso. Brad Hand may be the next option up in San Diego if manager Andy Green makes a change, as the Padres have plenty of other lefties to use for matchup purposes.

If the over/under for Matt Albers saves from May 19 forward is 5.5, which side are you on? The questions is: How soon will the Nats pull the trigger on a deal for bullpen help?

Finally, with Archie Bradley working shorter relief outings now than he was providing at the beginning of the season, his ascension to the closer role in place of Rodney is imminent. Once that happen, Bradley could emerge as an immediate member of Tier 2.