This article is part of our Offseason Deep Dives series.
In dissecting how the Twins were able to cruise to the American League Central crown in 2023, the first place you're probably going to look is to their starting rotation.
The Twins' starters ranked first in the AL in ERA (3.82), second in the AL in FIP (3.73), second in the AL in SIERA (3.73), first in MLB in strikeout rate (26.3 percent) and first in MLB in K-BB (20.3%). They finished first in the AL in fWAR (16.5).
Sonny Gray finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting. Pablo Lopez finished seventh and was second in the AL with 234 strikeouts. Joe Ryan fanned 197 batters over 161.2 innings.
Then there's Bailey Ober, who was stellar in his own right but seemingly gets overlooked. Let's dive into how Ober broke out in 2023 and figure out whether he can repeat or even improve upon it in 2024.
When you look at Ober's 6-foot-9, 260-pound stature, you might assume he's a flamethrower who relies on blowing the opposition away. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. At 91.3 mph, Ober's average fastball velocity in 2023 ranked in the 13th percentile. And yet, that four-seamer is an incredibly effective pitch for the big right-hander.
Ober's four-seamer was easily his most-used offering last season at 45.7 percent, and it produced an xBA of just .210 and xwOBA of .306. His whiff rate on the four-seamer came in at an impressive 27.7 percent, which was the 11th-best mark in baseball among
In dissecting how the Twins were able to cruise to the American League Central crown in 2023, the first place you're probably going to look is to their starting rotation.
The Twins' starters ranked first in the AL in ERA (3.82), second in the AL in FIP (3.73), second in the AL in SIERA (3.73), first in MLB in strikeout rate (26.3 percent) and first in MLB in K-BB (20.3%). They finished first in the AL in fWAR (16.5).
Sonny Gray finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting. Pablo Lopez finished seventh and was second in the AL with 234 strikeouts. Joe Ryan fanned 197 batters over 161.2 innings.
Then there's Bailey Ober, who was stellar in his own right but seemingly gets overlooked. Let's dive into how Ober broke out in 2023 and figure out whether he can repeat or even improve upon it in 2024.
When you look at Ober's 6-foot-9, 260-pound stature, you might assume he's a flamethrower who relies on blowing the opposition away. That couldn't be further from the truth, however. At 91.3 mph, Ober's average fastball velocity in 2023 ranked in the 13th percentile. And yet, that four-seamer is an incredibly effective pitch for the big right-hander.
Ober's four-seamer was easily his most-used offering last season at 45.7 percent, and it produced an xBA of just .210 and xwOBA of .306. His whiff rate on the four-seamer came in at an impressive 27.7 percent, which was the 11th-best mark in baseball among pitchers with at least 200 batters faced.
Ober's 6-foot-9 frame helped him rank in the 98th percentile in extension, which creates the illusion that his fastball gets on a hitter much quicker than its modest velocity would have you believe. Check out the image below from Baseball Savant which tracks the Perceived Velocity minus Pitch Velocity of four-seamers. Ober is among the standouts.
Additionally, as you can see from the chart below, Ober lives at the top of the zone (and out of the zone) with his heater. Because he throws from more of a three-quarters arm slot and elevates the ball relentlessly, it makes for a very difficult angle to square up.
There are drawbacks to throwing so many elevated four-seamers, of course. Ober is an extreme fly ball pitcher (49.6 percent, per FanGraphs) who gives up a lot of home runs (22 over 144.1 innings in 2023, 46 across 292.2 career frames). It's going to lead to some rough outings and rough stretches when the right-hander's command isn't quite there.
One of those rough stretches occurred last July and August, when Ober served up 11 long balls and posted a 5.85 ERA during his first eight outings after the All-Star break. It actually led to a brief demotion to Triple-A St. Paul, although workload management undoubtedly factored into that decision as well. Ober returned after making just one start for St. Paul and then held a 2.08 ERA and 26:3 K:BB over 21.2 frames in four September starts.
In addition to his unique four-seamer, Ober's changeup is a terrific offering. He upped its usage from 15.6 percent in 2022 to 28.0 percent in 2023, and the pitch garnered a .225 xBA, .263 xwOBA and 29.8 percent whiff rate. In terms of Statcast's Run Values, the changeup was Ober's highest-performing pitch at plus-8. The changeup helped to keep left-handed batters at bay, as they slashed just .228/.280/.349 off Ober in 2023.
One area where Ober regressed last season was with his slider. The usage and effectiveness of the pitch waned in 2023, as you can see below.
The horizontal movement of Ober's slider more than doubled year over year from 5.4 inches to 11.5 inches. While Statcast has classified the pitch as a slider, when you combine the drastic uptick in horizontal movement with a velocity drop of nearly two full mph, it seems to me that Ober switched to a sweeper in 2023. His rotation mates, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez, had two of the most effective sweepers in baseball last season, so it stands to reason that Ober might want to give it a try. However, the numbers say he should probably go back to throwing the slider he threw in 2022.
Between the regular and postseason and the minors, Ober threw 171.1 innings in 2023. That represented nearly a 100-inning jump from 2022 (72.2) and a 63-inning jump from his previous career high from 2021 (108.1). Although he hasn't dealt with any known arm-related injuries since early on in the 2019 season, durability has not been a strong suit with Ober and he's unlikely to ever be much of a workhorse. If you include his two postseason outings in 2023, Ober went more than five innings in just one of his final 12 starts and he picked up only two wins over that span. He's notched just 13 wins in his career despite a solid 3.63 ERA over 57 starts.
While he might not be a volume play, Ober should be better prepared to handle more of a workload in 2024, and his stellar work in September was encouraging. The Twins will also need to lean on him more with Gray and Kenta Maeda no longer around and Chris Paddack in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
Ober boasts a tidy 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 37 starts since the beginning of the 2022 campaign. A miniscule 5.0 percent career walk rate promises to continue making him a WHIP asset, and the lack of free passes help to keep his home run issues from being too burdensome.
Ober is sitting at 165.76 with his NFBC ADP, sandwiched in between Gavin Williams and Mitch Keller among starting pitchers. He could turn a profit there, even if he might be a bit more of a floor play than ceiling play.
