Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees & More MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks, July 5

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees & More MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks, July 5

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, July 5

In my last MLB sports betting article, I highlighted the problems embedded in the Yankees' roster and did not expect them to bounce back from a 2-8 stretch. I was on the Reds all three games in their dominating sweep of the Yankees, and the Reds are a team I detailed why they are a great bet to win the most games in July. Betting the Reds to make the playoffs is also very attractive currently. 

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The Best Bets for the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees 

The reeling Yankees will host their dreaded rival Red Sox in a three-game series starting tonight at Yankee Stadium and set for the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees are priced as –140 favorites with a posted total of 8.0 runs.  

The Yankees are 2-8 over their last 10 games and now trail the AL East division-leading Baltimore Orioles by two games. They are in a solid position to make the playoffs but currently are playing poorly in all facets of the game. The great hitting by Aaron Judge during his hot streak masked the significant flaws in the Yankees lineup and when he cooled so did the team. 

The Red Sox are the surprise team in the AL and the AL East Division, sporting a 47-39 record and trailing the Orioles by 7.5 games in the division standings. They are on a four-game win streak and have won seven of their last 10 games.  

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Who are the Starters? 

The Red Sox have their best starter on the hill tonight in Tanner Houck, who is 7-6 with an outstanding 2.67 ERA (sixth lowest) and a 1.02 WHIP (15th best), including 105 strikeouts (18th most). He is one of just 20 starters with an ERA of 3.00 or lower in MLB this season. In a touch of irony, I like the Red Sox even more with Houck coming off his worst start of the season in which he allowed seven ER in an 11-1 team loss to the Padres. The best MLB starters have short memories and can put both great and bad starts behind them with a 100-percent mental focus on the out facing them right now. I fully expect Houck to pitch very well against an undisciplined Yankees lineup that you will see chase his offerings that are out of the strike zone.  

The current members of the Yankees who have faced Houck previously have done poorly, batting just .173 in 52 at-bats with just one home run allowed to Gleyber Torres. Of note is the 0-for-11 hitless streak facing Houck by DJ LeMahieu

The Yankees are countering with Nestor Cortes, who is 4-7 with a 3.51 ERA (39th best) and a 1.10 WHIP (22nd best), including 98 strikeouts (30th most). He has pitched better at Yankee Stadium, going 4-3 with a 1.84 ERA in nine starts, but has allowed five home runs in 58 innings of work.  

The Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following betting algorithm has gone 70-36-5 for 66-percent winning Under bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under with a road dog in the first game of series. 

That road dog is facing the NY Yankees. 

Our road dog is coming off a win. 

If our road dog is coming into the Yankees series on a two-or-more-game win streak they have gone 30-36 (46 percent), averaging a 158-underdog bet resulting in a 16-percent ROI. If our dog is coming in on a four-or-more-game win streak they have done quite well going 10-8 (56 percent) resulting in a 33-percent ROI. 

My Best Bet for Friday is on the Boston Red Sox. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Ryan
John is a former RotoWire contributor. He has handicapped professional sports for 28+ years with a proven track record of success. He believes profits are earned over the long-term using advanced analytics, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. John has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and signs off with "Bet with your heads and not over it. And may all the wins be yours." John provides advice with no hype -- just facts that you can trust.
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