This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, May 10
Before I break down the MLB best bet, don't miss the debut of Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed power pitcher Paul Skenes on Saturday with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. If he is available in your DFS Leagues then grab him quickly as he is the real deal and quite likely to stick with the big league roster for the remainder of the season.
He has dominated (more like humiliated) Triple-A hitters this season. Currently, the gap between Triple-A hitters and MLB hitters has never been wider. He has been clocked at 102 MPH with his four-seam fastball, but realized that it did not have enough horizontal movement to be as effective at the MLB level. So, he created a new pitch that is called the Splinker, which is a hybrid of his splitter and sinking fastball and it has made Triple-A hitters look foolish whiffing 33 percent on that pitch. Seeing him throw over 100 MPH and then offer up a knee-buckling slider will be worth the time.
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Best Bets Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Diamondbacks will start a three-game inter-league series against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Currently, the Orioles are priced as 134 favorites on the money line at Fan Duel with a posted total of 8.0 runs at BetMGM.
The Orioles (24-12, 18-15-3 Over, 20-12-4 F5) lead the AL East Division by half a game over the New York Yankees (25-14, 16-21-2 Over, 18-13-8 F5). The Orioles have gone 7-3, averaging a -125 wager over their last 10 games and have won five of their last six games.
The reigning NL Champion Diamondbacks (18-20, 15-21-2 Over, 16-14-8 F5) have stumbled out of the gate and are currently in third place in the NL West Division and trail the Los Angeles Dodgers (26-13, 21-17-1 Over, 24-12-3 F5) by 7.5 games. The Diamondbacks better start playing much better baseball if they want to have any realistic shot at defending their NL pennant. They have posted a 6-4 record, 3-6-1 Over mark, and a 2-5-3 F5 mark over their last 10 games, so they are finding ways to come from behind and win games.
Who are the Starters For This Game?
Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt will get the ball for the Snakes and the Orioles will counter with left-hander Cole Irvin. Pfaadt is just 1-2 in seven starts with a hefty 4.61 ERA and 1.195 WHIP, including 42 strikeouts in 41 innings of work. Irvin has posted a 3-1 record in six starts with a solid 2.86 ERA and a 1.067 WHIP including 22 strikeouts over 34.2 innings of work.
Pfaadt has struggled with location so far this season and throws far too many pitches in the middle of the plate. He has allowed a solid 89 MPH exit velocity, 36 percent hard-hit rate, and has walked just 3.4 percent of batters faced. However, hitters can get the ball in the air, averaging a 15.5-degree launch angle, which the Orioles hitters will feast on. His fastball averages 92 MPH, but has great arm-side movement that rides in on the hands of right-handed hitters. He then mixes in an average changeup that averages 88 MPH and a curve thrown mainly to right-handed batters that averages 79 MPH.
Irvin is not going to strike out many hitters in any start, but he knows how to get batters to chase and get them out. He has allowed a decent 89 MPH exit velocity and 38 percent hard-hit rate, striking out just 16 percent while walking just 5 percent of the batters he has faced. He is the modern edition of the crafty left-handed starter and relies on his defense to field balls and record outs.
Irvin's fastball will average an eight-inch horizontal tailing action that gets in on the hands of left-handed batters and gets right-handed bats lunging in off-balance, defensive swings. His slider will tail away from left-handed batters targeting just off the plate and moves horizontally an average of 7.5 inches. His curve has close to a true '12-6' sharp, downward movement that does get weakly hit ground balls when it's located in the lower portion of the strike zone.
Irvin has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts and has won consecutive starts. He is pitching at an elite level and no reason to expect any regression by him when he faces the Diamondbacks lineup tonight.
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The MLB Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-19 record averaging a +106 wager resulting in a 24 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $14,230 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on home teams priced between a 130-favorite and a 120-underdog or the opponent is priced between a 125-favorite and a 125-underdog.
· The home team is starting a pitcher who has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts.
If the game is the first game of a series these home teams have gone 10-5 averaging a -120 favorite resulting in a 27 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $4,870 profit spanning the past five seasons.
Bet the Orioles priced as -127 favorites using the moneyline over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
