This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Bets and Player Props for
Wednesday, July 10
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 21-19 (+2.12 RW Bucks)
Following a 4-0 night last Wednesday, we'll look to recreate a little midweek magic tonight as we hone in on another three games. We're focused on two capable power hitters and also throwing in a game bet for what should be quite the pitcher's duel out west in what is already a park conducive to lower scoring.
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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Best Bets
The Nationals will trot out vulnerable southpaw Patrick Corbin on Wednesday, which always makes it a targetable situation with respect to hitter props. The Mets have a few hitters that we could focus on with respect to both their proficiency against lefties and Corbin in particular, and J.D. Martinez certainly qualifies as one of the top choices.
The veteran slugger has traditionally made life difficult on southpaws, posting a .304 average, .398 wOBA and .955 OPS against lefties in his career. His 2024 numbers are even better, as he's sporting a .306/.434/.548 slash line, .426 wOBA and 184 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances against left-handers.
Martinez has had limited exposure to Corbin, but it's been positive – he's posted a .500 average and has yet to strike out against the veteran lefty in six career encounters. Meanwhile, Corbin has been extremely hittable all season in opposite-handed matchups, and he's yielded a .331 BAA and .387 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road.
Given how favorable the scenario lines up from a starting pitcher perspective – not to mention the fact Nationals relievers have pitched to a 5.40 ERA, .272 BAA and .337 wOBA against right-handed hitters on the road in the last month – I like a couple of Martinez props.
MLB Picks for Nationals vs. Mets
- J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 Singles (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bets
This interleague matchup shapes up as an ideal scenario for those who are connoisseurs of quality pitching, as Chris Bassitt will face off with Logan Webb at spacious Oracle Park. The game unsurprisingly carries the lowest projected total of the slate at seven runs.
Both pitchers come into the showdown in fine form. Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs just once – in his most recent start against the Astros, when he gave up four – since May 1, a span of 72 innings. He's yielded just a single homer during that span as well, coaxing his season HR/9 down to 0.7, which is his lowest since 2015.
Meanwhile, Webb has once again been the picture of consistency for the Giants' pitching staff, posting a 3.09 ERA overall and generating a 4-2 record, 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and tiny 0.3 HR/9 across 55 home frames this season. The veteran right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs in a home start just once, and that came against the fearsome Yankees lineup when he gave up a respectable four over seven innings.
The Blue Jays have been one of baseball's most disappointing teams from an offensive perspective and come into Wednesday with a .224 average, .295 wOBA and -5.3 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month of play. The Giants have been only slightly better against righties at home in the same period (.242 average, .312 wOBA) and are facing a pitcher who's already extremely stingy with the long ball in a park that isn't very conducive to big hits.
Factoring in all the circumstances described and noting that Webb has given up less than seven hits in 10 of 19 starts – including six of his last 10) – I'll go with his hits-allowed prop and an Under on the F5 innings.
MLB Picks for Blue Jays vs. Giants
- Logan Webb Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Under 3.5 Total Runs - F5 Innings (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
The Diamondbacks head into Wednesday's matchup in the third game of a four-game set versus visiting Atlanta having dropped the first two installments and facing the prospect of another tough night with the inconsistent Slade Cecconi on the hill for Arizona.
The young right-hander sports a 2-6 mark, 6.10 ERA and 1.31 WHIP overall, but he's had his most trouble at Chase Field. Cecconi sports an 0-3 record, 11.65 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 2.6 HR/9 across 17 home frames, and he's pitched to a massive .406 BAA and .501 wOBA against right-handed hitters there (37-batter sample).
Austin Riley naturally makes for a daunting matchup, as he boasts a .276 average, .814 OPS, .352 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Riley also comes in swinging a productive bat, having generated a 1.043 OPS, .426 wOBA and 178 wRC+ in 34 plate appearances thus far in July.
Even when Cecconi exits, Riley will still be in a favorable position to produce, as D-Backs relievers have pitched to an NL-high 6.18 ERA and MLB-high .382 wOBA against right-handed hitters at home over the last month. As such, I'm in the camp of a couple of Riley props at solid prices.
MLB Picks for Atlanta vs. Diamondbacks
- Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Austin Riley Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 Singles (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Logan Webb Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Blue Jays-Giants Under 3.5 Total Runs - F5 Innings (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Austin Riley Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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