This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Diamondbacks-Braves and Marlins-Cardinals, MLB Expert Picks & Props for April 7
What a day for baseball! Let's pick two!
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
One of these teams won the National League pennant last season, and that team was not the juggernaut known as the Braves. Still, Atlanta remains the far-better team in the larger sample size regular season and will almost always carry a big tax if you want to wager on them, especially at home. We will actually look to close our eyes and fade them here, more on that in a second.
Chris Sale will take the bump for the Braves and looked pretty good in his initial outing, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk in 5.1 innings on the road against a tough Phillies lineup. Fastballs accounted for a whopping 59 percent of his 83 pitches, averaging 94.9 MPH on them, a typical speed he last approximated back in 2018. A healthy Sale will usually give us quality outings, but with relative inefficiency and occasional blowups in command.
Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona, and he got some late-round sleeper buzz in recent fantasy drafts after a rough 2023. His improved velocity did not translate into any success in his first outing as he lasted just 2.2 IP vs. the Yankees, while ceding five hits and four walks vs just two Ks.
I like the DBacks with the sizable plus money here, even after gagging away early 6-0 and 8-2 leads on Saturday, not to mention a late 5-2 advantage on Friday. Nelson's career struggles have mostly occurred at home. On the road he has actually pitched to a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 95.1 innings, with a 7.49 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in the desert. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has stormed out of the gate vs. lefties in 2024. Chris Sale is not Kyle Freeland, but the DBacks have started the season batting .341/.405/.543 vs southpaws, with six homers in 53 PA.
Further we have some trends in our favor. Warm weather and/or dome road teams in March and April have gone 155-153 the last three seasons with a 5.14% Return on Investment (ROI). The Braves are a terrific team anywhere and any time, but have not played special ball at home early in the last three seasons, going 20-21 with a ghastly -23.07% ROI while the DBacks on the road in April were 21-20 with a 19.57% ROI.
MLB Pick for DBacks at Braves:
DBacks +170 to win
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
I did not like the Marlins going into this season. They took a meh-hitting, good-pitching squad from 2023 that way over achieved as far as their won-loss record went and proceeded to let Jorge Soler walk and did not replace him in any meaningful way. And then a brutal run of pitching injuries struck. Still, who saw them as the worst team in baseball? The Cardinals, on the other hand, had a rare off year in 2023, but have rebuilt their rotation a bit and look likely to at least contend for the NL Central crown in 2023.
The Marlins start Max Meyer. The former uber-prospect returns in 2024 after missing a year and a half after TJ surgery in July 2022. His return start last week vs. the Angels went reasonably well, as Meyer pitched five innings, striking out four and yielding two walks and just two hits. The numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate however as in 13 batted-ball events, he yielded three barrels and eight hard hits, while his SwStr% was just 8.9%.
Kyle Gibson gets the nod for the Cardinals and the now 36-year-old has made a nice career out of being a dependable back-of-the-rotation starter who gives you innings, but not much upside. He carries a 4.53 career ERA and does not strike many out, so his results will always depend on the gloves behind him and some batted-ball luck. It worked in his first start as he went seven IP in San Diego and gave up just two runs, both solo homers, while striking out four and walking two.
I like the pitching matchup and will run with the dogs here, taking the winless Marlins. Miami has done poorly overall on the road in the last three seasons, going 93-142 with a -15.47% ROI, but it has turned a profit in March and April, going 19-19 with a 17.3% ROI. The Cardinals at home in that same stretch went 17-19 with a -13.5% ROI. I considered the F5 innings line at +105 so as not to have to rely on a very leaky Marlins bullpen, but I do not love the price, so I will stick with the full game play.
MLB Pick for Marlins-Cards
Marlins +120
