This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Well friends, after a bevvy of blowout series in the early rounds, we finally have some drama. The plucky D-Backs aren't going down without a fight and the Astros have recaptured their swagger in Arlington. And for two straight Game Focus articles, I whiffed on the side and total but nailed the player prop on Austin Riley, which is good because I don't like much of either game from a side or total perspective today, so we're going to get creative with some alt-lines and player props from the Houston/Texas affair.
Houston Astros at 
Texas Rangers
I'm keeping a cool head and not getting caught up in the fact that there have been 13 runs scored in the last two games. Yes, the Astros are hitting the ball again, but let's remember, those games were started by Max Scherzer off a 36-day layoff (a huge mistake by Texas, IMO) and Dane Dunning. Today, the Rangers go back to Jordan Montgomery in a Game 1 rematch against Justin Verlander. Montgomery has been nothing short of spectacular this postseason and his team needs his best tonight. Verlander is Verlander......you know he's bringing it tonight. I see no value in the moneyline or the total of 9 that is widely out there. That total is inflated due to the number of runs over the last few games and I want the under, but not at -110. I don't see this being much more than a 3-1/4-2 kind of game, so shop around for some alt-totals at 8 and even 7.
MLB Best Bet: Astros/Rangers Alt Total UNDER 7.5 (+134) @ DraftKings
Similar to the run totals, the K props are reduced to entice the public but heavily juiced. In Game 1, Montgomery had six Ks and Verlander had five, yet their props today are 3.5 and 4.5, respectively. Montgomery, in particular, catches by eye as he has had five or more Ks in five of his last six starts, all of them meaningful. Let's take advantage of the overreaction.
MLB Best Bet: Jordan Montgomery Alt K Total 5+ (+158) @ FanDuel
Finally, let's find a fun batter prop. Montgomery and Verlander have been dominant against the opposing lineup, so the dive will be deep. The two have combined to face 210 at-bats and have given up a total of ten extra base hits. TEN! Four of those ten have been homers. And those four homers have been hit by two guys, neither of which would likely be in anyone's first handful of guesses. One of which I'm going to talk about as an unofficial flier: Astros catcher Martin Maldonado. Maldonado is 3-4 against Montgomery with three extra-base hits and two homers. At +680 for 1+ HR, it is a fun bet I'm willing to fly on. The other man I spoke of above is Marcus Semien, who is 14-43 in his career against Verlander with two dingers. He did go 0-4 in Game 1, but I suspect he will make the proper adjustments. At +500 for 1+ HR, he's a fun flier as well. Semien at +250 for 2+ hits is also interesting, as is over his total base prop at 1.5 at +105. However, I'm going back to Maldonado for my official pick. His total base number is 0.5 and the over is +105. He's hit safely in each of the last two games and I can't ignore that value.
MLB Best Bet: Martin Maldonado Total Bases OVER 0.5 (+105) @ DraftKings
Friday Game Focus Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my Astros/Rangers Game Focus Best Bets for Friday, October 20:
- Astros/Rangers Alt Total UNDER 7.5 (+134) @ DraftKings
- Jordan Montgomery Alt K Total 5+ (+158) @ FanDuel
- Martin Maldonado Total Bases OVER 0.5 (+105) @ DraftKings
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.
