Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Is Tatis Worth the Risk?

The baseball season is upon us, and I'm back for my 14th (!) season covering injuries for RotoWire. I fully anticipate it will be a busy season on my end. Athletes around the world are still feeling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Historically high number of games lost to injury or illness are being reported across professional sports, including the NFL and NBA. I don't believe MLB will be immune either, especially when you factor in the additional ramifications from the lockout. The inherent risk in players, especially those recovering from offseason surgeries, could be elevated as they were forced to rehab away from the team's medical staff. For example, Astros right-hander Lance McCullers recently admitted his recovery process for a strained flexor tendon in his elbow was "choppy" due to his inability to work with the Houston medical team. Chris Sale was unable to report his rib injury to the Red Sox medical team due to lockout restrictions and is now set to miss time.  As a result, I won't be shocked if multiple players start the year on the injured list or if we see more soft tissue injuries to begin the season. 

Fernando Tatis

Tatis seems like the perfect place to start after I warned about the perils of an altered offseason. The San Diego All-Star will miss the first few months of the season recovering from surgery on a fractured wrist. The injury reportedly occurred in an offseason motorcycle accident and involved a tiny bone known as the scaphoid. 

At the distal ends of the radius and ulna (the bones of the forearm) sit eight tiny bones known as the carpal bones. The carpals are situated into two distinct rows. Their unique alignment allows them to move with one another as well as the the bones of the forearm and hand. The scaphoid is the carpal bone located at the base of the thumb. The cashew-shaped bone is an important part of wrist motion, articulating with as many as five other nearby bones. The scaphoid also serves as an anchor point for multiple stabilizing ligaments. 

Unfortunately, the amount of blood supplied to the scaphoid is poor, meaning healing is often impaired or requires considerable time to complete. As a result, surgery is often the best course of treatment to insure a proper union at the injury site. While recovery is often measured in weeks, not days, the injury does have a high success rate of recovery, though complications like a nonunion or death of bone tissue due to a lack of blood supply (avascular necrosis) can occur. 

Many players have sustained the injury, including Alex Gordon and Marcus Semien. Gordon returned in 34 days following his injury but avoided surgery. Semien, who did require a trip to the operating room, is likely a better comparison. He missed 83 days during the 2017 season with the A's. 

Tatis remains an electric talent, but it's understandable if some are hesitant to heavily invest after enduring last year's shoulder issues. However, the reward still outweighs the risk. Tatis should be fine when he eventually returns, assuming he avoids complications. A June return seems plausible. 

Ronald Acuna

Easily the biggest name coming off a major injury, Acuna appears on track. Out since tearing the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his right knee last July, the Braves outfielder is slated to return in late April. Acuna can ease back into things thanks to the offseason adoption of the designated hitter in the National League. 

Assuming he progresses without a setback, he should return to the outfield sometime in May. While a quick return is encouraging, those invested in Acuna might want to scale back their expectations for the start of the year. Players returning from ACL surgery have historically reported a small adjustment period before reaching their previous level of play. Furthermore, a 2015 study on the injury revealed that baseball players coming off an ACL reconstruction often see a dip in batting average when the injury involves the rear leg of their batting stance. Acuna's ceiling remains too high to let him slip too far, but understand he might require a bit more patience than other top selections. 

Check Swings

Manny Machado: Machado missed a few days with back tightness but returned for Monday's Cactus League game against the White Sox. This doesn't appear to be anything to worry about at the moment and is likely the result of San Diego simply handling a minor issue conservatively.

Starling Marte: The Mets outfielder is managing an oblique strain but is progressing nicely. He has taken live batting practice and made his Grapefruit League debut over the weekend. He should have enough time to work on fielding a new position in the outfield and record enough at-bats to earn him a shot at playing Opening Day.

Chris Sale: The Red Sox left-hander will miss the start of the regular season after it was discovered he was suffering from a stress fracture in his eighth rib. As with most stress-related issues, time remains the best course of treatment. He will be prohibited from throwing for multiple weeks before gradually building back up his workload. Any underlying mechanical issues that contributed to the stress fracture needs to be identified to prevent a recurrence. His return-to-play timeline remains fluid but look for him to start the year on the IL as he targets a late-May return. 

Zack Wheeler: While Wheeler's shoulder soreness doesn't appear to be linked to a major underlying injury, he's running out of time to be ready for Opening Day. The lingering soreness and inflammation have altered his normal routine and he won't reach a level of comfort before the season starts. Wheeler pitched a simulated over the weekend, suggesting he is progressing, but  he remains hard-pressed to be available to start the year. 

Shane Baz: The promising right-hander will have to wait to build on last season's success. Baz underwent an elbow debridement to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow. The surgery is straightforward as the physician excises the problematic tissue. With the root of the problem removed, Baz can begin throwing again once the associated symptoms have subsided. The Rays will progressively work him back to a normal workload and likely will have him spend some time on a rehab assignment in Triple-A. Look for that extend into late April or possible early May.