This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The men's singles championship match at Wimbledon is set for Sunday. It's a rematch of last year's championship match, which signaled a changing of the guard as a 20-year-old Carlos Alcaraz dethroned 36-year-old Novak Djokovic. One year later, Djokovic returns seeking a record-tying eighth Wimbledon title, while Alcaraz is aiming for his fourth Grand Slam title and second in a row.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets.
Wimbledon Odds: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic
Carlos Alcaraz (-145) vs. Novak Djokovic (+115)
Getting on the front foot will be imperative for Djokovic in this match, as Alcaraz has been most vulnerable early in matches at Wimbledon this year. Alcaraz has dropped the opening set three times in six matches and needed a tiebreak to win it in two of the other three. Conversely, Djokovic has lost the first set only once en route to the final, and he won the first set 6-1 in last year's Wimbledon championship match between these two. Alcaraz came back to win that match 1-6, 7-6 (6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 to win this title last year and take the only previous grass-court meeting between these two all-time talents from different generations, but Djokovic responded by winning a pair of hard-court encounters later in 2023 to take a 3-2 overall lead in their head-to-head. Alcaraz has had a significantly more challenging path to the final, needing at least four sets in each of his last four matches, three of which came against players with at least one career Grand Slam semifinal appearance. Djokovic benefited from a quarterfinal walkover against Alex de Minaur (hip), and he hasn't otherwise faced a top-14 seed or player who had reached a major semifinal entering this tournament.
Looking at their form in 2024, it's no surprise Alcaraz is favored. Alcaraz won his third career Grand Slam title last month at the French Open, while this will be Djokovic's first final of 2024. Djokovic has won at least one title every year since 2006 and has a chance to extend that streak here. A victory Sunday would also increase Djokovic's record total of career Grand Slam singles titles to 25. The Serbian legend is 39-1 in his last 40 matches at Wimbledon, with the lone loss coming to Alcaraz in last year's final. Alcaraz has the firepower and creativity to solve Djokovic's impressive defense, so Djokovic will look to get on the front foot by getting to the net frequently and being aggressive early in points, both off the serve and the return. Djokovic has the higher floor but Alcaraz has the higher ceiling at this stage of their respective careers, so Alcaraz will win if they both bring their A-game but the edge would shift to Djokovic if both players are a bit off. Of course, a player's level during a match is almost never stagnant, as Alcaraz has demonstrated in this tournament by repeatedly bouncing back from his slow starts.
Wimbledon prediction: Alcaraz def. Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4
