This article is part of our World Cup series.
The final day of the Round of 16 is Tuesday with a couple interesting matchups. Spain and Portugal should both control possession in their matches against Morocco and Switzerland, respectively, but possession doesn't equal wins.
World Cup Best Bets for Morocco versus Spain
Spain -1.25 corners against Morocco in the first half -125
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Spain are arguably the best team Morocco have played in the tournament and Morocco have arguably the best back line Spain will have faced. I think Spain may struggle to get that early goal and no goals in the first half +145 is definitely in play. While I like Morocco, I'm not sure beating Belgium and Canada is good preparation for this matchup. This may go similar to the Croatia matchup which finished scoreless and neither team had an expected goal number above .52.
Also in that match, Morocco had zero corners compared to five for Croatia. In fact, Morocco have just three corners from their three matches. For the sake of this bet, I'm ignoring that Spain's last match against Japan involved just two total corners. I'll think they'll be in the attacking third a bunch and you can ride that a lot of ways. If you don't think Spain score in the first 70 or so minutes, you can grab them +170 in the race to seven corners.
However, that's always a tough bet because they could go up two goals in the first half and not get a corner in the second. That being the case, I'll grab Spain -1.25 corners at -125 in the first half and then -2.75 for the entire match. For the -1.25, that means if Spain have one more corner than Morocco, it's a push and if they have two more, that's a win. Make sense?
World Cup Best Bets for Portugal versus Switzerland
Portugal to win in a shutout +185 against Switzerland
I'm not sure the second game of the day will go much different than the first one. Portugal should control how things go and Switzerland will focus on the counterattack.
These teams have already played this year, Switzerland winning 1-0 after a first-minute goal and Portugal winning 4-0 in an extremely dominant match. In those two matches, the Swiss managed .89 expected goals from 10 shots.
I like under 2.5 goals in both contests, but I'm not taking that bet at around -150 odds. 'No' on both teams to score at -115 looks interesting, but at that point, why not just bet Portugal win to nil at +185?
I think the corner odds are kind of tame because there were just two corners in Switzerland's last match, but Portugal are not Serbia. Portugal are more like Brazil, who took eight corners in their 1-0 win against Switzerland. At -105 odds, you can get Portugal race to five corners, which is pretty good. At full strength, Portugal should run this match.
World Cup Betting Picks Tuesday, Dec. 6
- Spain -1.25 corners against Morocco in the first half -125
- Portugal to win in a shutout +185 against Switzerland
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