This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's another international break which means more opportunities to bet on UEFA Nations League football. It may be tricky betting matches where you don't know starting XIs ahead of time, but you can still get a good idea of who will be available for each team.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets for Italy at Belgium
Thursday, Nov. 14 at 2:45 p.m. ET
Both teams to score between Belgium and Italy +110
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Italy and Belgium collide Thursday in a rematch of Matchday 3 when the sides drew 2-2 in a bruising match that saw a red card brandished to Lorenzo Pellegrini in the first half.
Italy top League A Group 2 with 10 points from four matches, in large part to their 11 goals scored. Inter midfielder Davide Frattesi has surprisingly led the way for the Italians, scoring a goal in three of the four fixtures. Most recently, the Italians have lined up in a 3-5-1-1 formation, intent on controlling proceedings with their width. Alessandro Bastoni anchors the center of the back three, while Nicolo Fagioli plays the holding role in the center of the park.
Belgium sit third in League A Group 2 on four points, behind both Italy and France. The experienced side is forecasted to use their familiar 4-1-4-1 formation. However, there's a chance they switch things up with a different roster, as Romelu Lukaku was called up again, while Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans were left with their clubs due to fitness concerns. Lois Openda has been decent through opening UEFA matches, though he may lose a starting spot with Lukaku available again.
Through four fixtures, each squad has proven capable of both creating chances and leaking goals. After a 2-2 draw in Rome during the reverse fixture, expect the crowded midfield to continue to be the force by which each team creates and concedes goals.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets for Norway at Slovenia
Thursday, Nov. 14 at 2:45 p.m. ET
Erling Haaland to score against Slovenia +135
Slovenia will have a tall task on their hands Thursday when they attempt to shorten the defensive leash around the Premier League's reigning Golden Boot winner, Erling Haaland. The Manchester City striker scored two of Norway's three goals in their 3-0 victory in October during the reverse fixture in Norway.
Norway, Slovenia and Austria are part of a three-way tie at the top of League B Group 3 on seven points. Slovenia defeated bottom-of-the-group Kazakhstan twice, drew with Austria and lost to Norway. Norway have six goals over their four fixtures, drawing with Kazakhstan, defeating Slovenia and splitting a victory each with Austria.
Key defender Vanja Drkusic recently returned to fitness for Slovenia, logging 45 minutes Sunday in Red Star Belgrade's 1-0 league victory, his first appearance after a three-week injury absence. Captain Erik Janza remains Slovenia's preferred option at full-back. He has been on a positive run of form in Poland's top tier, assisting three times over his most recent five appearances. However, he'll face much sterner competition lined up across from Haaland and must be more focused on defensive solidity than offensive support.
Meanwhile, Haaland has continued to pile up the goals in his young but already storied career. Through 15 appearances in all competitions, he's scored 15 goals. Having already shown his ability to cut through the Slovenian backline in October, anticipate the striker to score at least once in this fixture.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets for Serbia at Switzerland
Friday, Nov. 15 at 2:45 p.m. ET
Switzerland to defeat Serbia -145
Serbia and Switzerland each will have hoped for better results to begin their Nations League campaigns but find themselves at the bottom of League A Group 4. Serbia defeated Switzerland 2-0 in the reverse fixture in Serbia.
Serbia have managed just two goals over their first four Nations League fixtures. Though the Serbians have top talent at the striker position in Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic, the supporting cast has been unable to produce opportunities for the goalscorers. Making matters worse, one of their two goals scored was given as an own goal.
Switzerland enter the match seeking retribution from their 2-0 defeat in Serbia and to make a last-ditch effort at lifting themselves from the bottom of the group. Striker Breel Embolo has scored twice and assisted twice in his most recent five appearances for Monaco, while midfielder Granit Xhaka has created 22 chances over 10 Bundesliga appearances for Bayer Leverkusen this season.
Expect another cagey affair between two teams looking to keep their group hopes alive after floundering in their first four Nations league fixtures. I'm backing Switzerland to use their stable of progressive passers to set up an in-form Embolo and earn their first victory of the group stage.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets for Wales at Turkiye
Saturday, Nov. 16 at 12 p.m. ET
SGP: Turkiye to win + over 3.5 goals +404
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Turkiye sit atop League B Group 4 with 10 points, two points ahead of Wales. In the prior meeting, they drew 0-0 despite Turkiye dropping to 10 men in the 62nd minute. Inter midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu dictates play for the Turks in the middle of the park with supporting play from Orkun Kokcu in a midfield double-pivot. Fenerbahce attacking midfielder Irfan Can Kahveci has started and scored in each of Turkiye's last two fixtures.
The Welsh have scored five goals over their four Nations League fixtures and sit second in the group standings with eight points. A penalty conversion from Harry Wilson was the lone goal in their 1-0 win over Montenegro. Wales have had the lion's share of possession in three of their four fixtures and have used that possession as a defensive platform from which they've conceded just three goals.
Turkiye and Wales each have players competing at the highest levels in England, Spain, Italy and Portugal. The Welsh attack, via the likes of Brennan Johnson and Kieffer Moore, will challenge a Turkish defense that has allowed three goals through their first four matches. Expect an up-and-down fixture with goals aplenty and the Turkish talent to prove insurmountable for the Welsh.
UEFA Nations League Betting Picks - Matchday 5
- Both teams to score between Belgium and Italy +110
- Erling Haaland to score against Slovenia +135
- Switzerland to defeat Serbia -145
- SGP: Turkiye to win + over 3.5 goals +404
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