DFS Soccer 101: The Importance of Crosses on DraftKings

This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.

We know that the higher the R2 number, the better chance that these figures actually mean something, and while a 28 percent correlation is not that high, we know from experience that when our teams have a healthy dose of goal scorers and crossers, we tend to have better weeks in DFS Soccer. So why is the correlation coefficient so low?

First, plenty of goal-scoring forwards don't cross the ball, mostly because their skills lie in the ability to finish and score, thus eliminating the need for them to go out to the wings to cross the ball. These players tend to have lower floors because they lose out on most relevant statistical contributions if they fail to score. Think of players such as Diego Costa and Harry Kane.

So what happens if we eliminate forwards and goalkeepers from the equation and look only at defenders and midfielders?

The correlation is clearly higher than using all players. Eliminating goalkeepers is obvious, as they rarely (if ever) leave their field position to venture forward, and they certainly won't be going in for crosses. Eliminating forwards makes sense as outlined above. But does it really make sense to include all defenders? Specifically, the ones who tend to play as a center-back and never leave their own half? That seems like an unfair addition since we rarely, if ever, include these players in our thoughts when picking our teams. Unfortunately, there is no clean way to do this without hand picking which defender I wish to include in this data set, and in that case, I would have to go to each individual game and only include defenders that played as full-backs Even then, that would eliminate defenders who don't play full back but do cross, such as Daley Blind for Manchester United. We will just have to live with the knowledge that crosses are highly correlated to DK points, and even more so when a player is not a forward (or a goalkeeper)

Are Non-Crossing Players Irrelevant?

Ultimately, the answer to this question is a resounding no, as any player can score a goal on any given play. We've even seen particularly tall goalkeepers step up to try to head in a goal in the dying moments of a game on a dead ball or corner kick. But really, this question is about finding consistency among those non-crossing players.

For non-crossing players, I'll break them down to two categories: forwards and other. If you decide to fade Sergio Aguero because he doesn't cross the ball much, then you won't be having much success in DFS Soccer. For the 'other' category, I don't think the answer is cut and dry. Interceptions, tackles won and fouls drawn are all stats that matter on DraftKings. There are some players who consistently deliver on these stats, as shown in the table below, which shows the top five players in tackles won and other stats that we tend to ignore. I chose to rank by tackles won, as the tackle is worth a full point on DraftKings, while an interception is worth just 0.5.

This table shows a couple of interesting items: you can count on about 7-10 fantasy points with a swing of three or four in either direction when you roster one of these top tacklers. The exception is Erik Pieters, who is actually a full back for Stoke. Pieters is usually one of the higher priced defenders on any given slate, so you won't be going for value there. The risk associated with Idrissa Gueye and N'Golo Kante lies in that they are both midfielders on DraftKings and thus ineligible for the clean sheet bonuses. Additionally, rostering them carries an opportunity cost of NOT rostering one of the top crossing midfielders.