This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
European play continued this week and the injuries are piling up for a lot of Premier League clubs. Brighton have had issues for a couple weeks, while things were made worse for Newcastle following Wednesday's home loss. In addition to losing Sandro Tonali to a 10-month ban, Alexander Isak, Elliot Anderson and Jacob Murphy are all expected to miss time. As for teams like Chelsea and Tottenham, they're getting healthier and may be best situated to compete for future European spots, at least above Brighton and Newcastle.
Record: 20-15. Up $738 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen take on three matches, including the Manchester derby.
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EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Bournemouth
Burnley Race to 5 Corners against Bournemouth +195
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I've lost faith in this Burnley team and have zero trust in Bournemouth. I was set to take over 2.5 goals at -125, but a corner bet stood out to me. Burnley at +120 to reach three corners first and +195 to reach five corners first seems too good to pass up.
Burnley have a ton of injuries and a terrible back line, which could be even worse without suspended Connor Roberts, but they play with more possession than Bournemouth, and I think that could be enough. The Cherries haven't really shown much under Andoni Iraola and they'll know three points are in play, yet they've been so bad that I'm not sure how much that matters.
I think the absence of Jefferson Lerma (and Tyler Adams) in the midfield has been their biggest problem and somehow has me betting on this Burnley team. I don't know why Vincent Kompany randomly benched Josh Brownhill for an 18-year-old last week in a difficult match at Brentford, but I'm sure he has reasons. Maybe.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at West Ham United
West Ham moneyline to beat Everton +115
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This seems like a perfect spot for West Ham and similar to my above bet, I originally wrote down under 2.5 goals, but I think they're also going to win. Of note, the last couple times I switched bets, I ended up losing with the new ones (I turned Aston Villa ML into Man United over corners last week).
This looks like a perfect matchup for West Ham. Everton are going to press and hope for an early goal, but for the majority of the season, they've struggled to convert. Meanwhile, the Hammers hate having possession and will gladly allow the Toffees to press, which will in turn mean counter attacks against a defense that will likely again be starting Nathan Patterson, who Sean Dyche isn't a fan of. West Ham to win at plus odds at home. I'll take it.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Wolverhampton
Under 2.5 Goals between Wolves and Newcastle +105
Do Newcastle turn into last season's version now that they're dealing with a ton of injuries and trying to advance out of Champions League group stages? There's always a chance. I'm referring to their months-long stretch of low-scoring matches in which they played for 1-0 wins and struggled to do anything except defend.
I'm trying to be ahead of the curve with this bet and while it's partly because of Newcastle's injuries, it's also because Wolverhampton have changed strategies the last few matches, using three center-backs and focusing on counter attacks with Pedro Neto and Hee-Chan Hwang on the wings.
Maybe Callum Wilson has the game of his life or Hwang keeps scoring goals, but I think Newcastle play this a little safer, especially away from home.
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For everyone who reads my article, here's a secret bonus bet since I didn't want to write it up. Chelsea and Brentford under 2.5 goals +100.
EPL Parlay for Nottingham Forest at Liverpool, Luton Town at Aston Villa, Fulham at Brighton & Hove Albion
Parlay: Liverpool to beat Forest -370, Villa to beat Luton Town -350, Brighton to beat Fulham -180 = +154
This is another good week to take healthy favorites at home. Liverpool have been awesome at home this season and Nottingham Forest aren't good. Aston Villa are also cruising in home matches and Luton Town were lucky to take points at Forest in their last trip.
I'm most worried about Brighton, mainly because Fulham beat them twice last season including a 1-0 away win at the Amex despite Brighton having an xG of 2.22. But I think this is a great bounce-back spot for Brighton after a tough run of matches and I'm not high on Fulham the rest of the season.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 10
- Burnley Race to 5 Corners against Bournemouth +195
- West Ham to beat Everton +115
- Under 2.5 Goals between Wolves and Newcastle +105
- Parlay: Liverpool to beat Forest -370, Villa to beat Luton Town -350, Brighton to beat Fulham -180 = +154
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
