This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
We're starting to learn again just how important penalties are in the Golden Boot race, as Leicester City's Jamie Vardy scored two from the penalty spot in the Foxes' 5-2 victory over Manchester City, giving him five goals this season, including four penalties. Five goals puts Vardy in a tie for the Premier League lead with Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who scored against Crystal Palace on Saturday and is one of three players in the Premier League to score in all three gameweeks; Alexandre Lacazette and Patrick Bamford join him, though they only scored once in each of their three games.
I would be remiss not to mention that Matt Birnbach was pushing Calvert-Lewin for the Golden Boot when we podcasted about Premier League futures bets back on Aug. 26, and he's about to become insufferable with Calvert-Lewin's odds to finish as the league's highest scorer going from +6600 on Sept. 2 to +1000 today on DraftKings Sportsbook. Only Mohamed Salah (+400), who has three goals, Vardy (+500) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+550), who has one goal, have better odds to win the Golden Boot. Vardy also saw his odds significantly improve from +1200 to +500.
Calvert-Lewin and Vardy weren't the only players to see their odds increase, though no one who moved up is really close to them. Bamford improved from +10000 to +6600, but there are still 24 players with better odds, including Calvert-Lewin's teammate Richarlison, who converted from the penalty spot against Crystal Palace and moved from +8000 to +5000. Joining Richarlison at those odds is Chelsea's Tammy Abraham, who debuts at +5000 after finding the back of the net in their 3-3 draw with West Brom, his first start of the season. Other goal scorers this past weekend who saw their odds improve include Sebastien Haller (+15000 to +10000), Riyad Mahrez (+10000 to +8000) and Jarrod Bowen (+20000 to +15000).
Moving in the other direction, Raheem Sterling went from +1200 to +1400 and Timo Werner +1200 to +1600, and they represent the players with the best odds to win the Golden Boot who haven't scored a goal yet. Anthony Martial is in a similar boat, falling to +3300 from +2500, while Kevin De Bruyne went from +5000 to +6600 despite seemingly still being on penalties for the expected highest-scoring team in the league (he didn't score this past weekend).
And finally, eight players are no longer being offered on DraftKings, so a "thank you for participating" to Moise Kean, Dele Alli, Paul Pogba, Jay Rodriguez, Bernardo Silva, David McGoldrick, Allan Saint-Maximin and Leandro Trossard, who were all either +20000 or +25000.
Here's the updated breakdown, including total goals, penalties and free-kick goals:
| Player | Team | Total Goals | Pens | Free Kick Goals | 9/28/2020 | 9/21/2020 | 9/15/2020 | 9/2/2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | LIV | 3 | 2 | 0 | +400 | +400 | +350 | +600 |
| Jamie Vardy | LEI | 5 | 4 | 0 | +500 | +1200 | +900 | +1400 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | ARS | 1 | 0 | 0 | +550 | +500 | +450 | +500 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1000 | +1400 | +5000 | +6600 |
| Harry Kane | TOT | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1000 | +700 | +700 | +500 |
| Sadio Mane | LIV | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1000 | +1200 | +1600 | +1400 |
| Danny Ings | SOU | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1400 | +1600 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Raheem Sterling | MCI | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 |
| Timo Werner | CHE | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1600 | +1200 | +800 | +1000 |
| Gabriel Jesus | MCI | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2500 | +1200 | +2000 | +1600 |
| Raul Jimenez | WLV | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2500 | +1600 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Son Heung-Min | TOT | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2500 | +2000 | +6600 | - |
| Marcus Rashford | MUN | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Sergio Aguero | MCI | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3300 | +3300 | +1200 | +600 |
| Alexandre Lacazette | ARS | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3300 | +3300 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Anthony Martial | MUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3300 | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Neal Maupay | BHA | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3300 | +3300 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4000 | +3300 | +2500 | +1600 |
| Tammy Abraham | CHE | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5000 | - | - | - |
| Roberto Firmino | LIV | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 |
| Mason Greenwood | MUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5000 | +4000 | +3300 | +2500 |
| Kai Havertz | CHE | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | - |
| Richarlison | EVE | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5000 | +8000 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Callum Wilson | NEW | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | - |
| Michail Antonio | WHU | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6600 | +6600 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Patrick Bamford | LEE | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6600 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 |
| Rhian Brewster | LIV | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 | - |
| Kevin De Bruyne | MCI | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | FUL | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6600 | +6600 | - | - |
| Christian Pulisic | CHE | 0 | 0 | 0 | +6600 | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Riyad Mahrez | MCI | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8000 | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Chris Wood | BUR | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Hakim Ziyech | CHE | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8000 | +8000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Gareth Bale | TOT | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +10000 | - | - |
| Olivier Giroud | CHE | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +10000 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Diogo Jota | WLV | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Sebastien Haller | WHU | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Edward Nketiah | ARS | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Ollie Watkins | AVL | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | - |
| Wilfried Zaha | CRY | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Che Adams | SOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Jarrod Bowen | WHU | 2 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Phil Foden | MCI | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Jack Grealish | AVL | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Lucas Moura | TOT | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +20000 | +20000 | - |
| James Rodriguez | EVE | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | - |
| Donny van de Beek | MUN | 1 | 0 | 0 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | - |
| Jordan Ayew | CRY | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Ashley Barnes | BUR | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20000 | +20000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Oliver McBurnie | SHU | 0 | 0 | 0 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Moise Kean | EVE | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +20000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Dele Alli | TOT | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Paul Pogba | MUN | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Jay Rodriguez | BUR | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Bernardo Silva | MCI | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| David McGoldrick | SHU | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin | NEW | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Leandro Trossard | BHA | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Miguel Almiron | NEW | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +25000 | +25000 |
| Dwight Gayle | NEW | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +20000 | +20000 |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | LEI | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +15000 | +15000 |
| Joelinton | NEW | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +20000 | +20000 |
| Naby Keita | LIV | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +25000 | - |
| Nicolas Pepe | ARS | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | +15000 | +15000 |
