This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
International breaks may give some players a chance to rest and assess their injuries, but for the majority in the Premier League, it means more travel and match time. A lot of players travel to only sit on the bench, but for those who go to South America and play 180 minutes across four days, it's far from desirable.
It's always something I monitor in starting XIs coming out of the break. Often, a simple change in a lineup doesn't mean anything, but other times it could mean everything. Are Aston Villa the same team without Amadou Onana in the midfield or Arsenal without Bukayo Saka on the right wing? There are vital players in every side and it's always worth checking on before throwing down money.
Want more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners. He provides four corners bets this week.
Record: 10-9. Up $140 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Newcastle United
SGP: Newcastle double chance against Brighton & Newcastle over 3.5 corners & both teams to score +125
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This match has all the makings of goals and a bit of back and forth. That's been a common theme for Brighton matches of late, and combined with the general unreliability of Newcastle this season, it doesn't seem like either side will control this match.
Newcastle played better at home against Manchester City a few weeks ago, but that's a spot you play up for. Will they get up for Brighton?
Both back lines are inconsistent due to numerous injuries and instead of taking over 2.5 goals with this single-game parlay, I'll side with Newcastle corners. I think they can get at least to four corners unless they score multiple goals early and don't push the rest of the way.
I think 1-1 is in play, but it wouldn't be surprising if 2-2 or 3-3 hit. No matter what your SGP looks like, I think both teams to score is the lock of the matchup.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Fulham
SGP: Aston Villa double chance against Fulham & both teams to score +125
The Fulham hype grew over the international break after the xG bros dove into their numbers. They're second in the league in expected points and fourth in expected goal differential.
I think it was awesome they tried taking it to Man City last match and they've played well most of the season.
However, I'm not there yet. Is this Marco Silva team much different than prior versions? Raul Jimenez is finally scoring goals again, Emile Smith Rowe is another intriguing piece and Adama Traore is finally getting his time to shine. But are they actually better? I know their xG against Man City stands out because of the great opportunities on the counter, but for the most part, I think a lot of the numbers are due to schedule.
I love this spot for Unai Emery, coming off the international break and a couple draws in league play. Villa hope to return a few players from injury and if not maybe Fulham will win as a favorite. However, I think Emery is going trick Fulham and let them possess the ball a little more than they want with the hope of getting his guys on the counter, setting up Ollie Watkins for numerous opportunities.
I still think the Villa defense is suspect so both teams will probably score, but I prefer Villa in this match even at Craven Cottage.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Liverpool
SGP: Liverpool double chance against Chelsea & under 3.5 goals +125
I usually like going against the grain, but this seems too good to pass up. I'm a broken record talking about the difference between Arne Slot and Jurgen Klopp, but the oddsmakers still rate Liverpool as a frenetic, up-and-down, high-scoring team.
They've allowed two league goals this season and have the best xG allowed by almost two. Chelsea have had some high-scoring matches, but a lot of that has to do with matchup and circumstance. Their full-backs sit the deepest in the league (thanks, OPTA), which implies Enzo Maresca has asked them to help the center-backs a tad more and rely heavily on Cole Palmer and the forwards to do the rest. That works against weaker teams but probably not against Liverpool and their surprisingly deeper full-backs.
Specifically Andrew Robertson has been playing deeper than prior seasons, as Liverpool are playing safer and not going for the jugular every minute of every match. I think under 2.5 goals at +190 is a good bet, but I went a tad safer with under 3.5 and Liverpool to take at least a point.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 8
- SGP: Newcastle double chance against Brighton & Newcastle over 3.5 corners & both teams to score +125
- SGP: Aston Villa double chance against Fulham & both teams to score +125
- SGP: Liverpool double chance against Chelsea & under 3.5 goals +125
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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