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Record: 36-53-2. Down $1,222 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Wolverhampton
Under 2.5 goals between Wolves and Fulham -105
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I considered this maybe the hardest match to handicap when looking at the slate and now it leads my article, which has posted a 3-15 record with the last 18 bets. Coincidence?
There were five goals scored between these teams when they met in November, but three of them were penalties and they combined for just 22 shots.
I'm not sure Wolves can play their patented "only score on the counter" approach in this game, which is why I think it's difficult to project. However, due to injuries in the attack, they have just two goals in their last three matches, both of those scored in 1-0 wins (including FA Cup). Fulham's scoring prowess also doesn't seem guaranteed with three goals scored against a weird Brighton lineup and then the stoppage-time winner at Old Trafford.
I think this will be a fairly safe match played by both sides with opportunities limited. The hope is that there aren't three PKs called again.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at West Ham United
Burnley race to 3 corners against West Ham +155
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I have to roll my sleeves up and close my eyes for this one because it's insane to bet anything Burnley right now. Do they have more life than Sheffield United? It remains to be seen, having dropped their last three matches by a combined 10-0 scoreline, two of them against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Still, I think Vincent Kompany has a couple more pre-game speeches in him to motivate the locker room. There's a 50-percent chance they're terrible and get smashed from the kickoff, but I'll bank on somewhat tired legs for West Ham, who didn't rotate their regular XI for Thursday's Europa League match in Freiburg. That includes Lucas Paqueta, who has started three matches in 11 days after being out more than a month with his injury.
Already a team that doesn't like to possess the ball, I think there is some value in this bet even if it seems crazy. I originally had race to five corners at +260, but betting Burnley to reach five corners away from home might be the best reason for me to stop writing this article.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Chelsea
Newcastle double chance against Chelsea -110
I'm done with parlays, but if you want a couple options, I'd consider Bournemouth and Arsenal moneylines as the biggest home favorites this weekend. Instead, I'll take close to even odds on Newcastle double chance. Without EFL Cup or European play to worry about in addition to getting players back from injury (outside of Kieran Trippier), I think things are looking up for Eddie Howe's side.
Jacob Murphy and Joe Willock are once again options, giving them depth they haven't had in a few months. I also think Valentino Livramento isn't a massive drop off at right-back, at least defensively for Trippier. I said last week that Chelsea tend to play up in bigger matchups and that could be a reason this bet loses, but new injuries to Levi Colwill and Ben Chilwell leave them with questions on the back line.
Unless Stamford Bridge becomes a fortress, I think this will be a pretty even match with neither side having a noticeable edge anywhere on the pitch unless Cole Palmer makes it a mission to rip apart Dan Burn.
Either way, I think this may be a turning point in the season for Newcastle and that starts with getting a least a point at Stamford Bridge.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 28
- Under 2.5 goals between Wolves and Fulham -105
- Burnley race to 3 corners against West Ham +155
- Newcastle double chance against Chelsea -110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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