This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There have been a lot of goals scored in the Premier League in the past month and the odds have leaned into that. Almost every match in Gameweek 27 has an implied goal total north of three, which is usually only reserved for two or three matches. While I'd like to go the other way, there are a couple matches I can't see being low scoring.
Record: 36-50-2. Down $922 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where we discuss the Manchester derby among other matches this week.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Newcastle United
Over 10.5 corners between Newcastle and Wolves -105
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This doesn't seem like a good matchup for Newcastle, but I can't bet against them at St. James' Park despite drawing against Bournemouth last time there. At home, Newcastle will likely get on the front foot early and create a decent amount of chances. However, it's a perfect spot for Wolves to counter, which is how they've had success against top teams this season.
Even possibly without Hwang Hee-Chan, Pedro Neto and Pablo Sarabia on the wings against Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier or possibly Valentino Livramento doesn't feel like a good matchup for the home side. Burn has been roasted in recent starts, hence Livramento starting at left-back against Arsenal.
I think it'll end up being fairly back and forth, similar to the prior meeting that ended 2-2 with three goals in the first half. Instead of taking over 3.5 goals at +145 or both teams to score and no draw at +115, corners may be a better route because I think 2-2 or 2-1 are the most likely results. Also, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is -125.
EPL Best Bets for West Ham United at Everton
Under 2.5 goals between Everton and West Ham -110
Premier League over/unders are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
I'd be a tad heavier on this bet if I knew who was starting in Everton's midfield, but with doubts on Idrissa Gueye, Amadou Onana and Andre Gomes, I'm a bit worried.
That said, it won't stop how Everton want to play. Both these teams rank bottom five in terms of possession, which means one or both teams will have to possess the ball more than they're accustomed to. When these teams met in October, West Ham finished with 64-percent possession at home, yet had just 12 shots in a 1-0 loss.
I think the defenses will shine in this matchup where both teams will want to attack quick but likely struggle to hit the back of the net.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Nottingham Forest and Chelsea at Brentford
Parlay: Over 2.5 goals between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool -205 + Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Chelsea -185 = +129
Since I'm lazy, I'm parlaying two overs together instead of writing about two separate bets. I like there to be goals in both of these matches and think over 3.5 or even 4.5 is in play in each of them.
Liverpool always seem to allow goals away from home while Nottingham Forest can't keep anyone out of the back of the net. I expect both teams to get opportunities with Liverpool's finishing once again being the thing that separates them.
Brentford are thin on defenders and now likely won't have Ben Mee in addition to Ethan Pinnock and the full-backs. While that should mean goals for Chelsea, they also seem to play lackadaisical for large stretches against non-elite sides. It was evident against Leeds United midweek and I think Ivan Toney and company can bag a couple. If you prefer that route, Brentford over 1.5 goals is +120. By himself, Toney is +120 to score, which is better than anyone else in the game.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 27
- Over 10.5 corners between Newcastle and Wolves -105
- Under 2.5 goals between Everton and West Ham -110
- Parlay: Over 2.5 goals between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool -205 + Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Chelsea -185 = +129
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
