This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Shouts to the faders. This is definitely the worst run I've been on in this article since it began. Should I give up or just keep going? You know the answer.
Record: 33-49-2. Down $1,268 on $100 bets.
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EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Aston Villa
SGP: Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest and over 2.5 goals +175
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There will be goals and corners in this game. It's about finding the correct way to bet it. I'm still not sold on Aston Villa's defensive abilities based on the players available, while Nottingham Forest matches have been up and down since Nuno Espirito Santo took over, partly because they finally have their top four attacking players healthy at the same time.
Villa haven't won their last three home matches, but Unai Emery knows that can't continue and is always hyping up the home crowd. This is a good spot to get back on track, I hope. While I think this is more difficult than the odds suggest, I went against Villa last week (with a Fulham corners bet that lost) and they had an impressive win at Craven Cottage.
As long as Ollie Watkins, John McGinn and Douglas Luiz are healthy, I still think they have an edge over most teams in the league, especially with Emery in charge. That's enough to take them to win in this spot.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Manchester United
Fulham over 4.5 corners against Man United -110
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Manchester United have been one of my most successful betting teams to bet on or against the past two seasons and that's mainly because they've been predictable under Erik ten Hag. However, they threw everyone off the scent and have been playing better and less predictably the last few weeks.
They smashed Wolverhampton in the first half, which still might be the best they've looked this season. And while the wins have come since, they haven't been too convincing. It's been more about Rasmus Hojlund converting almost every chance he gets. They oddly had 10 fewer shots than West Ham and won 3-0. They needed eight saves from Andre Onana and another late winner from Scott McTominay to win at Villa. Most recently, they needed defensive miscues to get a Hojlund brace in the first seven minutes at Luton Town.
Remove Hojlund and Luke Shaw from the XI, and questions start to arise again. I was set on race to five corners for Fulham, but losing Joao Palhinha won't help their ability to thwart United's attack. Still, I think Fulham could control parts of this match, especially with Alex Iwobi back, and that should get them above four corners.
EPL Best Bets for Sheffield United at Wolverhampton
Wolves -2.5 corners against Sheffield United -120
There's a chance Sheffield United curl up in a ball and try to make this a 0-0 or 1-0 type match. That wouldn't be overly surprising given their history, but I still think this match could be exciting. Wolves aren't often a team that will pass it around the perimeter and wait for something to appear. They want to get guys like Pedro Neto and Pablo Sarabia the ball, so they can make things happen on the wings.
Given the wing-back and full-back situation for the Blades, I'm not sure they'll have an answer for anyone on Wolves. I don't think it'd be crazy to parlay together yellow cards for the left-back and right-back for Sheffield United, assuming that's even possible.
I initially had over 10.5 corners, but the more I look at the matchup, it seems like Chris Wilder will want his team to contain the middle of the field and make Wolves beat them with crosses. Wolves thrive off the counter and there probably won't be a ton of counters for them in this matchup, which I think is part of the reason, Sheffield United won the prior meeting.
I'll just take Wolves to win the corner battle instead.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at West Ham United
Brentford race to 5 corners against West Ham +180
Am I supposed to believe West Ham figured things out in training this past week? I know Lucas Paqueta could return to the squad, but I doubt he starts and I'm still not sure he'd change this bet. Brentford are starting to find their game little by little and you can't blame them for losing to Manchester City and Liverpool.
This game will be ugly. West Ham play ugly and Brentford always like to make a mess of things. So why am I getting +180 odds on Brentford to reach five corners first? I think possession will be even and that's reason enough that these odds should be closer to +110 or so for both teams.
In Thomas Frank we believe.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 26
- SGP: Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest and over 2.5 goals +175
- Fulham over 4.5 corners against Man United -110
- Wolves -2.5 corners against Sheffield United -120
- Brentford race to 5 corners against West Ham +180
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
