Premier League Projections: Gameweek 27

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Updated on February 26, 2015 2:30PM EST

So much of fantasy sports is about predicting what a player will do in an upcoming event, and this is no different for soccer. The questions of whether a player will score or a defender helping to keep a clean sheet are very important for fantasy owners trying to score the most points and win leagues. Some people use their gut to pick players they feel will have a good showing in their next match. This is fine, but in the advancing world of sports analytics, people are wanting more information and more data to back it up. This has led me to create a metric to calculate player projections for upcoming gameweeks.

What makes this calculation unique is that it tabulates specific events in matches (shots, crosses, passes, tackles, etc.) and generates a projection for each one. In turn, it can generate a goal and assist expectancy for any given player based upon the time they are expected to see on the field. This will give you a great idea as to which players are expected to have big games and find some "diamond in the rough" type players that can get you good value for little cost. Including the peripheral stats will also come in handy for those playing daily games that award points for actions like attempted shots or crosses. It should be a solid tool to help you pick the best team each week and weigh the cost versus expected output that most owners do in their heads before each gameweek.

For the fast approaching Gameweek 27, there are some interesting projections that stand out that could be leveraged to your advantage. Most gameweeks feature teams that project to upwards of a 70 percent chance for a clean sheet. This week we do not see any such teams. With weaklings like Leicester City and top clubs like Chelsea absent from action, it takes away some of those mismatches that provide good clean sheet chances. While Manchester United is an obvious choice this weekend, Newcastle stands out as having nearly the same chance for a clean sheet. Many of their options can come at a much lower cost and their the Magpie defenders are much more predictable for playing time. A quick scan of the Newcastle defenders shows someone like Daryl Janmaat could have excellent value, as he is a good candidate to put a shot on target while also setting up his teammates with some crosses.

Player	Team	Mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on Target	Pass Com.	Acc. Cross	Crosses	Tkls Won	INTs
Chris Smalling	MNU	90	0.16	0.00	0.65	0.24	53.20	0.00	0.00	0.70	2.82
Leighton Baines	EVE	90	0.15	0.10	1.64	0.44	43.52	1.39	5.39	1.30	1.43
Alberto Moreno	LIV	90	0.13	0.00	1.24	0.30	30.83	0.59	2.49	1.89	1.35
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	90	0.12	0.00	0.50	0.25	37.54	0.00	0.07	0.85	3.53
Seamus Coleman	EVE	90	0.10	0.04	0.89	0.42	31.83	0.45	2.77	1.45	1.18
Ben Mee	BUR	90	0.10	0.05	0.80	0.31	24.50	0.10	1.69	1.49	2.34
Brede Hangeland	CRP	90	0.09	0.07	0.26	0.22	18.53	0.00	0.00	0.66	2.16
Aaron Cresswell	WHU	90	0.08	0.10	1.02	0.39	26.88	0.65	3.31	0.96	0.92
Daryl Janmaat	NEW	90	0.08	0.23	1.07	0.23	29.86	0.59	3.65	2.08	2.16
Nathaniel Clyne	SOU	90	0.08	0.00	0.58	0.22	36.22	0.50	2.96	2.29	1.92
Kieran Trippier	BUR	90	0.07	0.04	1.77	0.13	27.32	2.12	8.05	1.50	2.31

Click here for more defender projections.

In the midfield and forward positions, there are a few matchups where teams are expected to take a higher number of shots than normal which should move some players values higher than usually considered. Stoke City has a favorable matchup against Hull City and are projected to attempt over 16 shots this weekend. This means a good opportunity for someone like Victor Moses, who projects in the top-15 for goal expectancy this weekend. Another team expected to see a high shot total this weekend is Burnley. And while the boost in stats may be obvious for a player like Danny Ings, the projected stats also give merit to considering George Boyd this weekend.

Player	Team	Mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on Target	Pass Com.	Acc. Cross	Crosses	Ints	Fouls Won
David Silva	MCY	90	0.35	0.05	1.76	0.76	61.84	0.72	2.76	0.61	1.77
Santi Cazorla	ARS	75	0.32	0.46	3.02	0.98	47.26	1.19	5.24	0.93	1.63
Angel Di Maria	MNU	90	0.28	0.47	3.06	0.98	35.56	2.03	10.65	0.98	1.11
Stewart Downing	WHU	90	0.28	0.24	2.87	0.71	33.33	2.62	8.22	0.77	0.89
Sadio Mane	SOU	90	0.27	0.11	1.97	0.97	25.88	0.39	2.09	0.70	3.40
Raheem Sterling	LIV	75	0.25	0.28	2.97	1.05	21.53	0.40	1.64	0.47	2.22
Yaya Toure	MCY	75	0.24	0.07	1.77	0.72	71.56	0.05	0.14	0.51	0.70
Gyfi Sigurdsson	SWC	90	0.23	0.31	2.60	0.78	34.14	1.27	4.89	1.37	1.42
Mesut Ozil	ARS	90	0.20	0.23	1.11	0.63	53.42	1.40	3.59	0.60	1.30
Scott Sinclair	AST	90	0.19	0.00	0.27	0.37	26.25	0.00	1.41	0.94	1.41
Jason Puncheon	CRP	90	0.19	0.21	2.44	0.63	25.15	1.51	6.69	1.07	0.68

Click here for more midfielder projections.

For the forwards, a matchup against Everton provides a boost to Arsenal's expected shot total. This moves Olivier Giroud to the top of the expected goal scorers this weekend. Some other names worth considering are Papiss Cisse (v. Aston Villa), Dame N'Doye (at Stoke City), and Diafra Sakho (v. Crystal Palace) as their nice matchups give them higher goal expectancies than players like Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge and Romelu Lukaku.

Player	Team	Mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on Target	Pass Com.	Acc. Cross	Crosses	Tckles Won	Fouls Won
Olivier Giroud	ARS	90	0.53	0.15	2.95	1.35	26.45	0.00	0.40	1.11	2.01
Sergio Aguero	MCY	70	0.47	0.56	2.51	1.55	18.01	0.00	0.24	0.33	0.90
Alexis Sanchez	ARS	75	0.47	0.53	3.57	1.32	27.69	0.70	4.26	1.37	1.99
Papiss Cisse	NEW	80	0.47	0.31	1.79	1.19	19.38	0.10	0.67	0.58	0.86
Dame N'Doye	HUL	80	0.41	0.52	1.71	1.58	18.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.77
Diafra Sakho	WHU	90	0.37	0.27	2.02	0.94	9.77	0.36	2.57	0.93	1.00
Wayne Rooney	MNU	90	0.31	0.26	2.09	0.64	49.62	0.79	3.39	1.02	0.98
Danny Ings	BUR	90	0.30	0.53	2.61	0.90	16.83	0.32	1.15	0.96	1.56
Daniel Sturridge	LIV	90	0.28	0.20	2.83	1.62	22.08	0.42	0.63	0.21	2.10
Graziano Pelle	SOU	90	0.27	0.20	2.39	0.89	22.07	0.08	0.47	0.27	0.93

Click here for more forwards projections.