DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Western Sydney Wanderers v. Sydney FC Showdown Preview

First-place Sydney FC need three wins to clinch the title, and they'll be looking for revenge in Saturday's derby, as Western Sydney Wanderers are responsible for their only two losses of the season. As noted in the league's match preview linked before, neither side has ever won all three matches in a single season, which will surely be enough for many to bet Sydney FC to win, a result that would extend their away unbeaten streak to eight games, including seven wins.

That away record has certainly contributed to Sydney FC being +108 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook against the eighth-place Wanderers, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at -148 and over 3.5 +180. One of the big difficulties we'll have in this one is that despite Syndey FC sitting atop the ladder, they are not a big peripheral-stat producing team, taking the fewest shots and sending in the fewest crosses in the entire league. As a result, fantasy scores could be lower than we're used to seeing simply because there aren't as many stats being produced. That doesn't mean there won't be goals, but it seems we're more likely to see guys who score end up between 15-17 fantasy points instead of 20-22.

Speaking of goals, Sydney striker Adam Le Fondre ($10,200) leads the A-League with 16 goals and is the second-most expensive player on the slate (and most expensive for his team). Le Fondre, who had a long career in England playing for clubs like Reading, Cardiff and Bolton before joining Sydney in 2018, has already matched his goal total from last season in eight fewer games. Impressively for him, but not great for us, he scored those goals on only 60 total shots, including 25 on target, and he's only drawn 31 fouls and sent in 21 crosses this season. Nevertheless, he's still the most likely goal scorer, as his -114 anytime goal scorer odds indicate. He's also taken four of the team's five penalties.

Another difficulty we have is that Alexander Baumjohann ($9,200), the second-most expensive Sydney FC player, leads the team in crosses thanks to a role on set pieces, but he didn't start the past two matches. We actually get a bit of a discount if that situation arises again, with Luke Brattan ($6,200) benefiting the most from those opportunities, so maybe it's not all bad. If Baumjohann doesn't start again and Brattan keeps these set pieces, he could even be a popular captain option because his lower salary allows you to spend up in the other spots. Brattan is a regular starter anyway, but we can't assume he'll have the dead-ball duties just because he's in the first XI. His floor is solid thanks to shots, fouls drawn, tackles won and interceptions, but the crosses definitely go up thanks to the set pieces. Realistically, playing Baumjohann and Brattan together isn't a bad move, but the former is definitely the safer play (which is why he's significantly more expensive).

There are definitely high-priced pivots for Sydney FC, including Kosta Barbarouses ($9,000), who is second on the team in goals (seven, including their most recent penalty), shots (49) and shots on goal (21) while leading them in assists (six). However, his production lately has been pretty poor, taking more than two shots just once in his last seven games, a span that saw him draw seven fouls and send in two crosses. Yes, he scored three goals and had two assists, so at least that's still working, but he's another example of a player whose floor is good for someone on the team, but the team doesn't have any really good floor players, especially for these prices. We shouldn't ignore that he took at least three shots in six of the first eight games this season, but he hasn't really been at that level since then.

Barbarouses plays up front of Le Fondre, but even moving out to the wing doesn't give us much more floor. Milos Ninkovic ($8,400) usually starts on the left side, but he's basically allergic to crossing. On the plus side, 40 percent of his crosses this season have come in the past two games; unfortunately, the past two games saw him with one cross in each. His floor basically comes from shots, fouls drawn and tackles won, and he has two goals and two assists in the past seven games. With score-sheet appearances at a premium (both matches between the teams this season were 1-0), paying up for Ninkovic doesn't seem prudent when you can get Anthony Caceres on the right wing for $6,400. It's not that Caceres is some high-crossing winger, and he only has one goal and one assist this season, but he still managed to take 10 shots, including six on target, draw eight fouls, win seven tackles and intercept nine passes in the past five games.

And if you're thinking that you'll just get your crosses from the fullbacks, well, good luck. Right-back Rhyan Grant ($7,200) is definitely more active in the attack than left-back Joel King ($5,800), which is why he's decently more expensive, and while they are second and third on the team in crosses, respectively, Grant has had more than four crosses just four times in 16 A-League starts this season, while King has done it thrice in 13.

Western Sydney also don't have a ton of high floor players, as they are the fourth-lowest crossing team in the league, they have the third-fewest shots on goal (though the fifth-most shots) and only two teams have drawn fewer fouls. They have stepped up defensively, intercepting the most passes and winning the third-most tackles, but those aren't exactly the floor stats we want to depend on.

Their attack, which has managed to score 26 goals this season, is led by Mitchell Duke ($10,600), the most expensive player on the slate. Duke leads the team with 11 goals, including three from the penalty spot, 61 shots and 22 shots on goal, and he's fourth in crosses and third in fouls drawn. He has been starting as a center forward of late, so while his 50 crosses this season seem okay, only eight have come in the past seven games. On the plus side, he's been shooting much more, taking at least three shots in each game over that span, including four with at least four. His +165 odds to score are the best on the team, and he has six goals in his last six games, including the winner against Sydney FC on Feb. 28. In fact, he is responsible for both goals in the two previous matches between these teams this season, which obviously means he'll score again (note: it does not mean that). His salary is quite high, but if this match is low scoring again, and he's responsible for one of the only goals (or the only one), having him in GPPs is a must (then again, that applies to literally any player). You could also think about paying down for Simon Cox ($7,600), but he comes with the same risks: he doesn't have much of a floor and this match is likely to be very tight. But sure, he's a GPP option.

If you're interested in set pieces, that responsibility has lately been on the shoulders of Nicolai Muller ($9,600), who put in a solid performance in the previous matchup, sending in eight crosses and putting one of four shots on target. His past two games have been pretty poor from a floor perspective, but he had a very productive run before that, taking multiple shots and sending in at least four crosses in five straight games, scoring two goals and assisting another in that span. Given his role on set pieces, Muller should certainly be owned in cash games, and he could be useful in GPPs if this game ends up scoreless, which is certainly possible. Captaining him doesn't provide a lot of financial flexibility, though it's more than what you get if you use Duke or Le Fondre.

While using a three-man back line, Western Sydney had been starting Daniel Georgievski ($5,800) as a left wing-back until he was sent off in the 89th minute of the previous matchup against Sydney FC. His return for this match should keep Jarrod Carluccio ($4,600) and Mathieu Cordier ($3,000) on the bench, and he's certainly an intriguing play since he created 13 chances in his last three starts, a span that also included 11 crosses. It's certainly more than we've seen from Tate Russell ($5,000), who is likely to start on the right side, even if Russell scored against Melbourne City last week. Georgievski has actually sent in the most crosses among Western Sydney players available for the match, trailing only Pirmin Schwegler ($6,200) this season by seven; however, Schwegler is suspended, and he wasn't even crossing that much anyway since Muller took over his role on set pieces. Schwegler was likely to be considered since his floor is still decent from fouls drawn, tackles won and interceptions, but we're out of luck on that and whoever replaces him isn't likely to be all that helpful from that holding midfield spot.

A low-scoring game should certainly put the goalkeepers in consideration, which is really not fun at all. Sydney FC are the best defensive side in the league, conceding only 15 goals in 19 matches, a result that has helped Andrew Redmayne ($6,600) score positive points in every game this season. He has the highest save percentage in the league, stopping 57 of the 69 shots on target he's faced, but there are six keepers who have had more opportunities and Western Sydney don't seem to be in the position to pepper him with shots, even at home. Meanwhile, Daniel Lopar ($5,600) has made at least three saves in each of his past three starts, and while Sydney FC aren't a high-shooting team, Lopar made four saves in the first matchup this season and then five more in the second, both clean sheet wins. It's impossible to say there is safety in rostering these guys, but with a low-scoring game expected, using one isn't a terrible idea. Also, if you're thinking about using both in GPPs because the game could be scoreless, just remember that if that's the result then neither will get the five-point win bonus, which certainly limits their upsides.