DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Picks

MATCHES (EDT)

• 3:00 pm: Ajax vs. Liverpool
• 3:00 pm: Bayern Munich vs. Atlético Madrid
• 3:00 pm: FC Midtjylland vs. Atalanta
• 3:00 pm: Inter Milan vs. Mönchengladbach
• 3:00 pm: Manchester City vs. FC Porto
• 3:00 pm: Olympiacos vs. Marseille

THE CHALK

Andrew Robertson, LIV at AJA ($5,700): Teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold ($6,600) is the most expensive defender on the slate, but Robertson has taken a much bigger role on set pieces this season, and he's crossing more in open play, sending in 52 in five Premier League starts while Alexander-Arnold has only reached 37 in that span (in fairness, that's pretty good too). The difference maker is that Robertson saves us $900, which will surely come in handy on this slate, one in which Liverpool are the second-lowest favorite, though they have the third-highest implied team goal total (this match has the highest match total).

Alejandro Gomez, ATA at MCH ($7,500): Atalanta are the second-biggest favorite on the slate with the second-highest implied goal total, and Gomez is expected to take most, if not all, of their set pieces. With Ruslan Malinovskyi ($7,300) ruled out and Josip Ilicic ($10,400) returning this past weekend from a months-long absence, Gomez should have free reign for what he does best: score fantasy points on DraftKings. He hasn't been crossing the ball nearly as much this season, and he's coming off his worst game, though that still ended up being 8.3 fantasy points in 55 minutes away to Napoli, a match that was preceded by fantasy scores of 17.9, 31.7 and 39.0, respectively. The recent goal output (four in four games) is more than we're used to, but the matchup Wednesday certainly keeps that outcome in the realistic side of the ledger.

FORWARDS

Riyad Mahrez, MCI v. POR ($9,000): Mahrez is expected to maintain his role on set pieces in place of the injured Kevin De Bruyne ($10,200), but he's still a very solid fantasy contributor even without those opportunities, as we saw him take 11 shots and create six chances in three Premier League starts this season. It also doesn't hurt that Manchester City are the biggest favorite on the slate with the highest implied goal total, so there's every reason to consider getting some of their front-line attackers. That, of course, includes Sergio Aguero ($9,300), who has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate, and Raheem Sterling ($9,800), who has the fifth-highest. While Mahrez doesn't have the goal expectation, his floor is very good for cash games, and he's a player who can still reach a high ceiling, with five games scoring at least 29.8 fantasy points last season, including 50.5 against Atalanta in the Champions League.

Duvan Zapata, ATA at MCH ($8,000): Atalanta have the second-highest implied goal total on the slate, and Zapata is their most likely goal scorer, as Aguero, Robert Lewandowski ($11,400) and Mohamed Salah ($8,500) are the only players on the slate with higher anytime goal scorer odds. He only played 45 minutes last weekend against Napoli, but he had one goal on nine shots, including four on target, and two assists on six chances created in his first three Serie A starts this season. You can actually make a similar case for Inter Milan's Romelu Lukaku ($8,100) and/or Lautaro Martinez ($7,600), who come in with the sixth and ninth-highest anytime goal scorer odds, respectively, while playing for a favorite. Zapata's matchup is definitely better, but any of these attackers could put up huge scores.

Dario Benedetto, MAR at OLY ($4,100): Benedetto could be the cheapest starting forward who isn't on a big underdog. That's pretty much it though. He failed to take a single shot in each of his past two games (147 minutes), but he did rip off six shots against Metz back on Sept. 26. But really, he's cheap.

MIDFIELDERS

Dimitri Payet, MAR at OLY ($6,500): Payet's days as a truly elite fantasy performer seem to be gone, but he's still in an excellent position to return value Wednesday because of his lower price. Teammate Florian Thauvin ($8,300) is the real fantasy star from Marseille, particularly because he's the one who takes most set pieces, but his salary is a bit tough to work with if you don't want to punt at forward and/or defense. Meanwhile, there's a non-zero chance that Payet gets some of those opportunities, and while he isn't a huge open-play crosser, he's always capable of putting up a solid game. The other side of this game has a monster fantasy scorer in Mathieu Valbuena ($10,700), but his price seems really inflated from his excellent statistics during the qualifier stage, and doing the same thing against Marseille should be tougher, even at home.

Achraf Hakimi, INT v. MGB ($6,500): Inter Milan and Atalanta both seem under-priced given how good they can be, and Hakimi fits that mold. He's unlikely to take set pieces, with Stefano Sensi ($6,100) more likely to take them if he starts, though Inter mix up their corner takers so much that it might not matter. That being said, Hakimi has been a very solid fantasy scorer early this season, averaging 1.82 shots, 2.43 chances created, 6.39 crosses and 1.22 fouls drawn per 90 minutes, which would be a solid return at his Wednesday price. Borussia Monchengladbach are a decent defensive team, but Inter Milan attack enough where Hakimi should be able to get there.

DEFENDERS

Trent Alexander-Arnold, LIV at AJA ($6,600): I realize I made the case for Robertson over Alexander-Arnold above, but there are definitely viable builds that include both Liverpool fullbacks. They both attack so much to set up the forwards, and Ajax like to play open enough where they should be able to both be successful. I still prefer Robertson to Alexander-Arnold, but having both certainly makes the decision easier. That being said, if you want to save some salary, the Atalanta fullbacks are cheaper, with Robin Gosens ($4,900) the one more likely to reach his ceiling than Hans Hateboer ($4,400), though Johan Mojica ($3,000) would be a nice surprise at such a low price.

Stefan Lainer, MGB at INT ($3,400): The matchup isn't really one we want to have to buy in to, but it makes it a little easier when it's at Lainer's price. He is likely to start at right-back or right wing-back, and while he only sent in two crosses in each of the first four Bundesliga games of the season, Lainer does a little defensive work to not totally rely on what he can do moving forward. That's particularly important because he's unlikely to be attacking much while trying to slow down Inter Milan's forwards.

GOALKEEPER

Jan Oblak, ATL at BAY ($4,100): Atletico Madrid are the second-biggest underdog on the slate, so this is hardly a risk-free endeavor. Then again, it's goalkeeper, there's never a risk-free anything. Oblak, and the defenders in front of him, have been excellent this season, as he comes in off three consecutive clean sheets, and the only match he didn't post a shutout in, he made six saves while allowing only one goal. Bayern Munich are sure to pepper as many shots as possible at Oblak, whose salary savings will go a long way in fitting in forwards and midfielders and defenders we want to play.