DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday Champions League Values

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday Champions League Values

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

We've gotten through the October international break and a full week of league matches, so it's time to get back to the Champions League action. Here's a look at the early odds from Paddy Power:

Home (win odds) (draw odds) Away (win odds)
Arsenal (3/1) 11/4 Bayern Munich (5/6)
BATE (8/1) 7/2 Barcelona (1/3)
Bayer Leverkusen (5/6) 5/2 Roma (11/4)
Dinamo Zagreb (8/5) 11/5 Olympiacos (6/4)
Dynamo Kyiv (17/10) 9/4 Chelsea (13/8)
FC Porto (1/8) 11/2 Maccabi Tel Aviv (16/1)
Valencia (2/5) 10/3 Gent (11/2)
Zenit St. Petersburg (4/5) 12/5 Lyon (3/1)

And with that information in our heads, let's check out some value plays.

Goalkeepers:

The higher priced keepers are obviously the heavy favorites, with Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($5,700) and Iker Casillas ($5,500) leading the way. Manuel Neuer ($5,200) sees a slight drop in price because of his matchup on the road against Arsenal, though Bayern are still favored to win at the Emirates. If the plan is to save a little money at goalkeeper, which isn't as advisable as the defender position since a clean sheet win is worth 10 points on its own, here are a few options:

Mikhail Kerzhakov ($4,700)
Kerzhakov has taken over the starting job for Zenit after some struggles by Yury Lodygin ($5,000), though the latter is still priced as the No. 1. Lyon have a number of players that can score goals, but the Zenit defense is likely strong enough to withstand the onslaught and their attackers are certainly good enough to help Kerzhakov get the five-point win bonus in addition to his saves points.

Matz Sels ($4,200)
Wait, you're suggesting the Gent goalkeeper playing on the road at Valencia? I appreciate this seems a little crazy, and the five-point win bonus is a bit of a long shot, but Valencia have struggled offensively for the most part this season, scoring multiple goals just twice in their last 11 matches, and Sels could put up a decent save total if Valencia try to simply overpower the reigning Jupiler League champions.

Defenders:

Based on the odds above, Porto at home against Maccabi Tel Aviv should be targeted, as should Barcelona at BATE, Valencia at home against Gent and Zenit hosting Lyon. Bayer Leverkusen are also decent favorites at home against Roma, but the Italians should put up a better fight than anticipated. Bayern Munich are road favorites against Arsenal, but with the way the Gunners have been playing lately, it seems better to avoid paying up for the Bayern defenders who don't do a ton other than defend (i.e. not many crosses, shots, fouls drawn, etc.).

The Barcelona fullbacks, Dani Alves and Jordi Alba, are the two most expensive options at the position, coming in at $5,600 and $5,300, respectively (not including Branislav Ivanovic's comedically high price of $5,800, as he's out with a hamstring injury). However, if you're simply looking for clean sheet points, it's possible they send out either Thomas Vermaelen ($3,700) or Jeremy Mathieu ($3,800) to partner with Gerard Pique ($4,200). Neither are likely to provide much offensive output, but playing against an overmatched BATE side could get them the five clean sheet points.

The Porto defenders are also expensive, with Maicon ($4,900) coming in as the third highest priced option at the position. Bruno Martins Indi ($4,300) is playing on the wing of late, but he does so little in the attack that he's hardly worth the investment. Maxi Pereira ($4,600) has been good for a number of crosses, but he's the eighth highest priced option.

Valencia have been very strong defensively, posting clean sheets in five of their last eight matches in all competitions. The plus in paying up for the Valencia fullbacks is that they cross the ball, with Joao Cancelo ($4,600) sending in 13 in two Champions League matches this season, while Gaya ($4,400) has 17 in three.

As I've written previously, I consider $4,000 to be the cutoff for cheap defenders, so here are a few under that line that caught my eye:

Ignor Smolnikov ($3,700)
The Zenit defense hasn't exactly been great this season, as they have just three clean sheets all season, but Smolnikov offers exactly the kind of offensive upside that should be targeted on DraftKings, particularly in Champions League play when there aren't always a lot of easy clean sheet targets (or if there are, those fullbacks are very expensive). He has two goals in his last six games and averages more than three crosses per game (he sent in five during Zenit's last Champions League match against Gent). Lyon have scored three goals in their last four games, so while a clean sheet may not be guaranteed, there are still points available for one goal allowed.

Lucas Digne ($3,900)
Digne was a popular pick in the last Champions League gameweek and was a slight disappointment after Roma lost 3-2 to BATE. However, he still scored 13 DraftKings points thanks to an assist, one shot, four crosses and three fouls drawn. The matchup at Bayer Leverkusen isn't ideal, but the Germans have scored just twice in their last three matches.

Baba Rahman ($3,000)
Chelsea are starting to play better of late, and Rahman actually has clean sheets in both of his two appearances this season, his latest coming Saturday against Aston Villa. Traveling to Ukraine is never easy for an English team, though Dynamo are coming off a disappointing 3-0 loss to Shakhtar Donetsk. Rahman's price sure does open up salary elsewhere, though it would be nice if he started crossing as much as he did last year in the Bundesliga.

Midfielders:

The interesting thing about this slate is that it doesn't have that many high impact upper-tier midfielders. Chelsea's Eden Hazard ($10,100) is the highest priced player at the position but was recently benched by manager Jose Mourinho for not playing enough defense. He's also struggled considerably in the attack this season that paying over $10,000 is irresponsible.

Mario Gotze ($9,100) is the next highest but is out with a thigh injury. Bayern's injury issues don't end there, as Franck Ribery ($8,500) is still dealing with an ankle injury and Arjen Robben ($8,400) has been out since the beginning of September with a thigh issue. That leaves high-priced options like Douglas Costa ($8,600), Mesut Ozil ($8,000) and Cesc Fabregas ($7,700), with only Costa attractive at that price. Ozil has played very well lately, of course, but a tough matchup against a Bayern side with plenty of players that know him well doesn't lend itself to a breakout fantasy performance.

So, with a lack of higher-priced options to pay up for, here are a number of value plays that could fill the statsheet.

Willian ($6,100)
The Brazilian has been arguably Chelsea's best player this season, and the continued struggles (and benching) of Hazard has only made it more apparent. Willian has been taking free kicks (where he's scored a number of goals) and he's had multiple shots, crosses or fouls drawn in five straight games. Oh, and he's scored in four of those games and picked up an assist in the other. He has reached at least 14 DraftKings points in five straight games and gives excellent exposure to a Chelsea team that is finally starting to play better.

Miralem Pjanic ($4,700)
Fantasy Champions League players will remember Roma's shocking 3-2 loss to BATE in the last gameweek, but Roma have responded extremely well, scoring seven goals in their last two Serie A matches to put themselves just one point behind Fiorentina for the top spot in Italy. Pjanic has been a major reason for the improvement, as he has two goals and two assists in the last two games. On the surface, Bayer Leverkusen appear to be playing well defensively, allowing one goal in their last four Bundesliga matches, but it should be noted that all four teams they've played are currently no better than 11th in the table, with two of the three within the bottom three teams in the league.

Sven Kums ($4,600)
Kums has picked up an assist in both of Gent's two group stage matches (coming against Lyon at home and Zenit in Russia), but it's his goal-scoring prowess that gets him the shout here. Since his assist against Lyon, Kums has bagged five goals, including a hat trick against Club Brugge two games ago (you may remember Club Brugge from Manchester United's Champions league qualifying matches), plus another goal Friday against Mouscron-Peruwelz. Gent are significant underdogs Tuesday, though Valencia have hardly done much this season in domestic competition, as they sit eighth in La Liga and have scored only seven goals. Yes, they've only allowed five, but three have come in the last two games.

Kostas Fortounis ($3,800)
Fourtounis made some noise in Olympiacos' upset win at Arsenal back in September, scoring 14 DraftKings points thanks to an assist, four shots (one on goal), three fouls drawn and a cross in 87 minutes. He was in excellent form coming into that match, scoring three goals in the previous two games. His playing time has been a bit sporadic lately, but he bagged two goals (including a penalty) in Olympiacos' win over AEK Athens on Saturday after coming on in the 76th minute. If Fourtounis gets the start, he could be a huge salary savings for an Olympiacos side that have scored 17 goals in their last five games and are a slight road favorite.

Oleg Shatov ($6,000)
Zenit have been cruising of late, scoring nine goals in the last four games. Shatov scored his sixth goal in all competitions Friday against Kuban Krasnodar and he's found the back of the net twice in his last three clubs matches. The Zenit forwards (more on that later) likely have more fantasy upside, but for a little cost savings, Shatov could pay dividends.

Andre Andre ($5,400)
Andre scored on his only shot against Chelsea in Porto's last UCL match, and he draws a decent number of fouls for a player at his price, though he'll have to score to really make value. Porto have scored nine goals in their last four matches, with Andre and Jesus Corona the only ones to score twice.

Forwards:

So, if we saved money at defender and midfielder, here is where we can spend our cash. Some of the best goal-scorers in the world can be found in this slate, and that's not even counting Lionel Messi ($10,000), who is out with a knee injury.

Hulk ($9,900)
Hulk has played 15 matches in all competitions this season and has failed to score a goal or assist in only in four. He has eight goals and 11 assists, including six assists in his last three games. $9,900 is no small price, but Hulk's upside is absolutely worth it, especially considering the form he's in.

Robert Lewandowski ($10,900)
After scoring 15 goals in five matches for club and country, Lewandowski has shockingly gone 138 minutes without a goal. Arsenal have played well of late, so there is a consideration that Lewandowski could be faded, but he's the elite goal-scorer who has proven the ability to score on anyone.

Thomas Muller ($9,800)
Muller's upside aligns with Lewandowski, with the added bonus that he takes penalties. He has three goals in his last two games for Bayern and should be a handful for the Gunners.

Luis Suarez ($11,100) or Neymar ($10,800)
Playing against BATE could give fantasy players the idea to stack the two Barca forwards, and while they could certainly each score, they rarely have monster games at the same time. Suarez has four goals and an assist in his last four matches, while Neymar scored four times and picked up an assist Saturday against Rayo Vallecano. Both players have tremendous upsides, and despite the recent success of Neymar, I give the slight edge to Suarez, even for $300 more. If the plan is to pay up for two or three high-priced forwards with the hope they each go off for multiple goals, it's prudent not to combine the Barca attackers.

Vincent Aboubakar ($8,000)
The Porto/Maccabi matchup is one to target, but there don't appear to be many reasons why you should pay the extra $1,000 for Yacine Brahimi. Don't get me wrong, he's an excellent player, but you're getting the same type of exposure with Aboubakar, who bagged a brace against Dynamo Kyiv in Porto's Champions League opener and then took four shots against Chelsea in their matchup.

Value forwards to consider:Hakan Calhanoglu ($7,700), Artem Dzyuba ($7,600), Mohamed Salah ($5,300), Theo Walcott ($7,300), Andriy Yarmolenko ($5,500)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew is a former RotoWire contributor. He was the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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