This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 12:00 pm: Wales vs. Denmark
- 3:00 pm: Italy vs. Austria
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Lorenzo Insigne, ITA v. AUT ($10,900): Similar to prior Italy slates, you'll need at least one of their forwards in cash games. Insigne is cheaper than Domenico Berardi ($11,300) and has taken more set pieces over two matches, so he's the logical play, even with slightly worse odds to hit the back of the net. Both Insigne and Berardi were rested in the final group match along with Ciro Immobile ($10,600), so all of them could be asked to go the full 90 on Saturday. That said, Immobile is most likely of the trio to go 90, as Federico Chiesa ($8,600) and Federico Bernardeschi ($9,000) will probably come off the bench at some point. Still, Immobile's fantasy value is tied to scoring goals and getting assists, something Insigne hopefully doesn't have to worry about. He had just 5.9 fantasy points in the win against Switzerland, so there is some worry about his floor, but it's not like Immobile and Berardi had higher floors in that game. If you go Immobile, you'll be hoping for four or five shots and maybe a couple fouls drawn, at a minimum. While Italy are favored, Austria don't give up a ton of chances (Ukraine had five shots against them last match). Because of that, Insigne and Berardi aren't hands-down cash plays, as Netherlands only had
MATCHES (ET)
- 12:00 pm: Wales vs. Denmark
- 3:00 pm: Italy vs. Austria
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Lorenzo Insigne, ITA v. AUT ($10,900): Similar to prior Italy slates, you'll need at least one of their forwards in cash games. Insigne is cheaper than Domenico Berardi ($11,300) and has taken more set pieces over two matches, so he's the logical play, even with slightly worse odds to hit the back of the net. Both Insigne and Berardi were rested in the final group match along with Ciro Immobile ($10,600), so all of them could be asked to go the full 90 on Saturday. That said, Immobile is most likely of the trio to go 90, as Federico Chiesa ($8,600) and Federico Bernardeschi ($9,000) will probably come off the bench at some point. Still, Immobile's fantasy value is tied to scoring goals and getting assists, something Insigne hopefully doesn't have to worry about. He had just 5.9 fantasy points in the win against Switzerland, so there is some worry about his floor, but it's not like Immobile and Berardi had higher floors in that game. If you go Immobile, you'll be hoping for four or five shots and maybe a couple fouls drawn, at a minimum. While Italy are favored, Austria don't give up a ton of chances (Ukraine had five shots against them last match). Because of that, Insigne and Berardi aren't hands-down cash plays, as Netherlands only had two corners in their matchup in the group stage.There's a world in which Immobile gets five shots and Italy only have a few corners, leading to a higher floor for the central striker.
Martin Braithwaite, DEN v. WAL ($7,300): As usual, there are no great floor forwards on a two-game slate, especially for cheap. Gareth Bale ($8,300) had a huge game against Turkey, but he's otherwise disappointed and is only a GPP option. The same goes for the Austria forwards against this Italy back line, which hasn't allowed a goal in 11 straight matches. I'd rather bank on Denmark controlling possession and racking up chances, similar to what Switzerland did against Wales in their first match. Braithwaite doesn't have a high floor, but he may be underrated after disappointing in the 4-1 win against Russia, failing to surpass six points without a spot on the score-sheet. He's on the ball more than Yussuf Poulsen ($7,500) and that usually leads to a better floor. Poulsen is a fine option if Denmark dominate, but he has two goals from three shots in the last two matches, something I don't want to rely on. If you want to punt, Kieffer Moore ($4,800) probably has as good of floor as Poulsen, as he's only on the pitch to score goals for Wales.
MIDFIELDERS
Daniel James, WAL v. DEN ($6,300): This is where it gets interesting. Do you trust David Alaba ($6,900) at this price even though there's a chance he plays center-back again? Even as a full-back, he probably won't get up the field a ton against Italy. More troublesome is that Italy allowed just five corners in group play, so even if they go ahead a goal or two, it's not like Alaba will rack up set pieces on a worse team. It'll be difficult to spend on that in cash games, and anyone above him not on Italy. That forced me to underdog set-piece taker James, who didn't get a ton of chances or sets against Italy and still managed six fantasy points in 75 minutes. In an easier matchup with hopefully a full 90 possible, James could be set for another 10-point floor, something he hit in each of the first two matches. In fact, given his price, he's nearly a lock in cash games despite playing on an underdog. No matter how this match goes, James should get enough work to have one of the higher floors on the slate, and while he hasn't made the score-sheet yet, he's created eight chances.
Jorginho, ITA v. AUT ($4,300): Most people will probably turn to Italy next even though their forwards are far more involved in the attack. Manuel Locatelli ($6,100) could be over-used after bracing in his last start, but he's too expensive for what he's provided and the same goes for Nicolo Barella ($6,000). Jorginho is the only one of the trio to not make the score-sheet, but his floor has been the best, and he seems most likely to go 90. In addition to defensive stats, he's created five chances in three matches. If Marco Verratti ($5,900) starts over Locatelli or Barella, I'd probably change my mind. Verratti could steal some set pieces and, as seen in his numbers against Wales (one assist, two shots, five chances created), he provides more attacking value than any other Italian midfielder.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, DEN v. WAL ($5,600): I was big on Mikkel Damsgaard ($5,500) last match and while it paid off, I'd rather go with Hojbjerg in cash games this time. Damsgaard scored a great goal against Russia and has probably been Denmark's most creative player the last two matches, but he's gone 72 minutes in each. Combine that with what's expected to be a defensive match and I'd rather back a defensive midfielder who gets forward. There's no question Hojbjerg is playing more forward with Denmark than he's done at Tottenham. In addition to his three assists, he has six shots and six chances created. With almost 20 extra minutes of game time, his floor is probably better than Damsgaard, and he has a touch of upside. The other option is to go with players who may not have any floors. Aaron Ramsey ($5,200) was awesome against Turkey, but he didn't do anything in the other two games, similar to Bale. If you want a punt, Alessandro Schopf ($3,000) could be forced to start because of other injuries in the team for Austria.
DEFENDERS
Joakim Maehle, DEN v. WAL ($6,100): Even with a clean sheet in play, I don't think the Italian full-backs are worth it. Leonardo Spinazzola ($5,800) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo ($5,500) have each had some good matches, but neither crosses a ton, resulting in inconsistent floors. Spinazzola's best game was against Turkey, and he was fine in his only other start, something most players in Group A can say. As for Maehle, it's a lot to spend on without a role on set pieces, but he's been good in every game. He scored against Russia and hit a floor of 14.6 fantasy points against Belgium. Through three matches he has seven shots and 12 crosses to go with defensive stats. I was set to write about Daniel Wass ($5,100) because of his role on set pieces, but I can't get behind someone who has failed to play more than 62 minutes each of the last two matches. I still think Wass is a great option, and he'll probably hit a floor of 10 points if he goes 90 minutes, but for now, it doesn't look like that will happen.
Ben Davies, WAL v. DEN ($3,900): There isn't much to do here unless you want to stack the Italians and aim for a clean sheet with either Alessandro Bastoni ($3,600) or Leonardo Bonucci ($3,500) (Francesco Acerbi is inexplicably expensive at $4,800). That's probably the best strategy, but Davies might be the cheapest starting full-back, so that has to mean something. He oddly didn't do anything against Turkey, but down a goal against Switzerland, he was in the attack a good portion and hit 7.6 floor points. There's a chance that happens again, and given that he has three shots and four crosses, an appearance on the score-sheet is at least possible. It's not my favorite play, but there isn't much to do with defender on a two-game slate.
GOALKEEPER
Danny Ward, WAL v. DEN ($4,300): If you have the money, Gianluigi Donnarumma ($5,700) is clearly the best route. The main decision could be deciding between spending on two Italian forwards or going with one forward and Donnarumma. But if you go with two forwards, you'll need to punt at one position. I picked Ward because I don't think the odds are correct. This match will be low scoring and I think both teams are in play to win with a clean sheet. Even if Denmark dominate this match, Ward has 13 saves in three matches, allowing only two goals. If Ward can make five saves in a 2-0 loss, that could be enough compared to the favored goalkeepers who may only make one or two saves.
