This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Lineup No. 1: Columbus or Bust
This was a tough lineup to build. While I continue to believe that Kei Kamara's breakout game is coming, particularly now that Columbus returns home to the energizing Mapfre Stadium crowd, his price makes things challenging. With two of the slate's seven matches featuring teams that played on Wednesday night, rotation could weigh heavily on our lineups. Fortunately, we should get to see the final six lineups of the evening all before the three late matchups kick off, so we'll have plenty of options to pivot to.
The key figures in this lineup are Kamara and Federico Higuain. Kei has cooled off significantly after an outstanding MLS return last season, and he continues to drift further and further from dangerous positions in hopes of becoming more involved in the match. While the direct goal threats haven't come as frequently, few players like to take shots in front of their home crowd than Kamara. In one of the large DraftKings tournaments last weekend, Kamara was only 2 percent owned. Once more for emphasis...The man who tied Giovinco for the goal-scoring lead just one season ago was only 2 percent owned! The Crew have played just one of their five matches at home, and in that game Kamara had one goal on six shots. Contrastingly, their opponent, New York City FC, have played just one road match, when they conceded three goals to Chicago on opening day.
I'm confident that the time is right to stack the Crew's top playmaker Higuain and their top scorer Kamara. With ownership levels low, and daily fantasy lineups dripping with recency bias, the potential one-two tournament punch is too good a risk to pass up.
We're left balancing the rest of our lineup with some popular picks at appealing prices, and some off the beaten path value plays. For the former, I'm going back to the well with Andreas Ivanschitz ($5,800) and Joao Plata ($5,900). Ivanschitz has collected 96 points through five matches this year, never tallying fewer than 12. His crosses give him a considerably high floor while Seattle's offense remains a work in progress. The Philadelphia Union have historically been a good team to jumpstart your attack against, and while they look to be turning that reputation around a bit, the long flight to Seattle doesn't help their outlook. It could be a close match, but Seattle will have their chances. Plata can't possibly keep up his torrid pace to begin the year, but on the other hand, he still is more valuable than his price suggests. Real Salt Lake remain the league's only unbeaten team, are playing at home and could return their key creator in Javier Morales. Vancouver's defense is good, but they are at their most susceptible when facing speedy opponents and Plata certainly fits that bill.
Our final three midfield pieces are somewhat underwhelming, but we can't be picky on a budget. Jermaine Jones ($2,500) returns after starting the season on a six-match suspension. He's not a great offensive selection, but he's a good candidate to earn a few points in each of the peripheral categories (unfortunately including a yellow card). Jack Barmby ($3,000) might be set for an appearance on the wing in Portland as the Timbers play their third match in seven days. The team has quite a few injuries, but is at home and still features the attacking talents of Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi. If Barmby doesn't play, we have enough players in the late matches to shuffle salary around. Finally, Harry Shipp ($5,100) returns to his hometown of Chicago where the Fire sent him packing just a few months ago. I'm a sucker for a revenge game, and while Shipp is overpriced, I think he's a great gamble this week. Didier Drogba may return as well, which puts Shipp in great company alongside the Chelsea legend and Ignacio Piatti.
Defenders aren't cheap these days, but squad rotation and injuries may help us out. San Jose recently traded for Kofie Sarkodie ($2,700) and looks set to try him out in place of Shaun Francis this weekend. On the other side of that match, Taylor Peay ($2,200) should step in for an injured Alvas Powell (wrist). Peay is a promising and athletic defender, but don't expect Powell-levels of attacking potential. We're left with enough cash to pay up for a keeper or a defender but not both. Since I like the value of Clint Irwin ($3,300) at DC United, we can afford the lively Rodrigo Ramos of the Chicago Fire. Ramos has been a great asset at the fullback spot for Chicago and is fairly priced at $3,600.
Upon review of this roster, I contemplated switching Jones and Joao to Burrito Martinez and Roland Alberg, but stuck with my initial picks thanks to the upside that Plata brings.
Devil's Advocate: Kamara may be in the "stay away until he shows us he's back" zone and spending up for him has really put a damper on our flex spots as we're forced to roster Jones and Barmby. If we're set on Kamara, do we also need to take the risk on Shipp? Do we trust Irwin after DC United's offensive explosion last week? Finally, we're relying a little too much on predicting lineups in the late match and if our cheap picks don't start we may be forced to downgrade Plata or Ivanschitz.
Why We'll Win: Winning GPPs is all about taking calculated risks, and we have good reason to think ours are worth the dice roll. Giovinco plays on the road this week, and Valeri is on tired legs with a makeshift Timbers squad. It's highly possible that our alternatives could outscore those two, and for less cost.
Lineup No. 2: Keeping it Simple
Truth be told, I was very close to trotting out a Sebastian Giovinco lineup that shared a lot of the same value plays above. I really think he's in for a big match this week, but wanted to shift gears and see what a better balanced lineup might look like. I'm glad I did, because this group looks like a contender.
We're not going to get fancy here. Already this season, we've had two or three slates where the majority of winning lineups were ones that didn't go too far out on a limb and just stuck to the safe plays. Sometimes the simplest solution really is the best, and for that reason I'm going to get us started with Joao Plata ($5,900) and Fabian Espindola ($6,800) up top. They're both in good form and playing at home. I've been pretty vocal about Espindola losing a step or two since last year, and while his two goals last week were somewhat fortuitous, what I loved seeing was how tenaciously active he and his teammates were. DC United don't often look that hungry and if they can continue to play that way, Espindola's safe floor will continue to give him a high ceiling as well. Plata is in the conversation with the top forwards before we even factor in pricing, so the $5,900 cap hit is nearly an automatic purchase.
Again in the midfield, we won't include Diego Valeri. He's typically a lock for fantasy lineups and has proven to produce no matter the scoreline or matchup but I can't quite trust his playing time this week. Considering he'll cost $8,300, I'm going to take my chances elsewhere in a decent number of my entries. By forgoing Valeri, we're able to fit in quite a number of good options. Clint Dempsey ($6,800), Ignacio Piatti ($6,400), and Shkelzen Gashi ($5,200) all give us the goal-scoring upside that can win tournaments. Not many midfielders will bury goals like these three over the course of a full season, and we're able to purchase all of them. I like each fixture for these players, though Gashi faces some weather concerns in Colorado. Piatti may have Didier Drogba in the lineup to draw some attention away, and Chicago are due for another defensive letdown. Dempsey may not be able to boast many peripheral stats these days, but he does take shots as if the opposing team is playing without a keeper. Coincidentally, Philadelphia are pretty good at conceding high shot totals that Andre Blake must stand on his head to save.
Our final two attacking picks come at low prices, but with high potential. Herculez Gomez ($3,200) really stood out last week for Seattle when he entered the match. As the Sounders pushed to equalize, Herc led the effort, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start over ,Nelson Valdez this week. Valdez is returning from injury and may be better used as a second half substitute. Alberto Quintero ($3,700) only played 20 minutes midweek for San Jose and projects to get the start in Portland. His high work rate could pay dividends against an out of sorts Timbers side that got overrun by FC Dallas just a few days ago.
Defensively, I'm taking the extreme value of Taylor Peay once more. He appears a safe bet to start and costs just $2,300. This allows us to purchase Joevin Jones, who I think will be able to push the envelope on the wing against Philadelphia. The Union don't have the most athletic attacking wings, so Jones' speed should let him roam upfield a little extra. In goal, David Bingham's price is a bit of an anomaly. I can't recall a time this year when DraftKings has priced a sure-fire starting keeper on a good defensive team under $3,000. One of the major themes of today's piece has been skepticism about Portland this weekend, and taking Bingham's value is a natural play on that line of thinking. Portland will get their shots, but I doubt this is a match where three, or even two goals is likely. We have $3,300 left, which is a weird range for defensive options, but I selected Sean Franklin over Tony Beltran and Steve Beitashour. I think Franklin has a little more upside if DC continue to push the attack this week. Against a road-weary Toronto FC, the best way to defend Giovinco is probably to possess the ball high up the field. To do that, they'll need Franklin to do his part.
Devil's Advocate: While this side is well-rounded, we don't have any bets placed on the top dogs. Without Giovinco, Valeri or Kamara, we risk missing out on the top spots if any one of those three go off. Espindola will be highly owned after a big haul last week, and we may be better shifting that $6,800 elsewhere.
Why We'll Win: We spread out our spending, but increased our goal-scoring potential. Nearly every player in this lineup is a threat to grab a goal, some arguably more so than a struggling Kamara or a tired Valeri. Giovinco lineups will look drastically thinner, and if he stays relatively quiet, we should be in a great spot.
