This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Lineup No.1: With $14,000 Giovinco
Heading into the weekend, I'm not sure what is a more daunting task: building a DraftKings lineup around Sebastian Giovinco, or NYC FC's odds of making the playoffs (or Philadelphia Union's or Orlando City SC's). Regardless, there are certainly numerous weeks when a lineup of Giovinco and seven nobodies (read: Will Bruins) would outscore a majority of non-Giovinco lineups. Plus, Seba's matchup against a weary Philadelphia Union team, whose season is in turmoil and playoff hopes all but squashed, could not be much jucier. Thus, I'll happily accept the challenge of providing a competitive Giovinco-led DraftKings roster!
This squad was not built in an organized fashion. Players were fervently swapped in and out and in again. Few mid-tier priced players are worth their salt these days, with most successful players costing well over $7,000 as the season draws to an end. As Andrew Laird noted on this week's RotoWire Fantasy Soccer Podcast, nearly any defender worth considering costs upwards of $4,000. Ultimately, things just shook into place, and I'll simply run down the roster from top to bottom.
Alongside Giovinco, we'll use two players entering the weekend on high notes. Carlos Rivas' substitute appearance against New York Red Bulls earned high praise from manager Adrian Heath, and I expect the young designated player to get a chance to prove himself once more with a start. Orlando's playoff dreams are one misstep away from disappearing in their first MLS season. There's little to lose and everything to gain by trotting out their young stars, Cyle Larin and Carlos Rivas alongside a determined Kaka. Rivas has heaps of speed that can give even the quickest defenders headaches and it would be quite a surprise if he didn't find a few good chances in this one.
Also up top, we'll loosen the purse strings for Fanendo Adi. Portland are tiptoeing the playoff line and Adi's brace last weekend helped keep them one point ahead of San Jose as the season nears a close. While he hasn't earned nearly as many starts as his talent commands, manager Caleb Porter would be crazy to sit him this weekend. Traveling to Portland are Sporting Kansas City, fresh off a U.S. Open Cup victory in Philadelphia on Wednesday. That match went 120 minutes, plus penalties, and SKC fielded a top-choice team. This weekend, we'll see a mix of inferior talent and fatigued first-teamers from Sporting. A similar set up fought to a draw last weekend with Seattle, but I doubt they can repeat the performance in Portland. Adi has as many two-goal games as single goal games (four each) and boasts an impressive xG/90 (expected goals per 90 minutes) metric.
In the midfield, I'm targeting Jermaine Jones ($3,400) and Eric Ayuk Mbu ($4,900). Neither have been a regular on the fantasy MLS radar, but they merit consideration this weekend. Jones is finally looking healthy, peppering his attacking teammates with spot-on long balls. World Cup watchers will recall his excellent strike from distance against Portugal and, somewhat humorously, he has appeared determined to repeat the feat ever since. They are low percentage opportunities, but Jones makes them look fairly dangerous. DraftKings doesn't discriminate based on shot distance, so we'll take the points and hope one goes in. Jones' opponent, the Chicago Fire, originally courted the German-American before New England swooped in and won a "coin-flip" to sign him. Ever since, he has played quite well against the Fire, who are already eliminated from playoff contention and don't have much motivation left. Ayuk Mbu could very well feature against Toronto for a Philadelphia side clinging to playoff hopes. The Union will need some added energy after a demoralizing defeat Wednesday and can't afford to trot out their same fatigued attacking foursome. If Ayuk doesn't go, Zach Pfeffer is even cheaper and would be a likely candidate to play in his stead. An appeal could be made to downgrade Adi to a cheaper forward, say David Accam, and upgrade one of these bargain bin midfielders. However, I don't find much to like in the $5,000 - $6,500 range at midfield and prefer the Portland striker's upside.
We can afford to purchase some decent defensive options with the budget left over, and I like Brek Shea and Marcel de Jong. Shea may be moving back to a defensive position with Carlos Rivas' expected start, but he will still get up the field plenty. He brings as much attacking potential as any defender in the league, including $7,000 Chris Tierney. His price is only this cheap because of significant missed time this season for injury and international duty. De Jong also brings plenty of attacking upside and occasionally starts on the attacking wing. While this match doesn't kick off until 10:30pm EDT, we should be able to pivot to a different SKC fullback should de Jong not start. If you want to pick a more sure option, Jeff Larentowicz, who takes penalties, Waylon Francis, Connor Lade and perhaps Jordan Smith at the same time slot, all are appealing. Finally, I'm looking to David Bingham in goal. San Jose sit just a point behind Portland for the final Western Conference playoff spot and will be missing attacking cornerstone Matias Perez Garcia, who foolishly removed his shirt for a second yellow card after scoring a game-winning goal last week. They host a very good Vancouver team and should focus on playing sound defense and hoping to grab a lone goal. Bingham's upside is perhaps unmatched on the slate, as Vancouver should fire plenty of shots, but San Jose's defensive system could limit them to half-chances rather than dangerous ones. David Ousted makes for a good alternative play on the other side of this match, given the absence of Perez Garcia.
Devil's Advocate: Never have so many words been written on the internet to convince people to play Jermaine Jones and Eric Ayuk Mbu. That speaks for itself, as do Jermaine Jones' recent <5pt DraftKings box scores. We don't have much of a set tournament strategy defensively, with players from three different teams, one of which plays against one of our attacking players. Finally, an argument could be (NOT "should be") made that Giovinco's price is finally too high to be worth paying.
Why We'll Win: We have arguably the two best offensive options on the slate with Giovinco and Adi. Few opponents with Giovinco will be paying up for fullbacks with as much potential as we have. A goal from Rivas, Jones or Ayuk Mbu will almost surely put us in the money and it's entirely possible that we won't even need it.
Lineup No. 2: Without $14,000 Giovinco
Building a lineup with Giovinco: Freedom or certain misery? This weekend, I lean towards freedom. Unless Giovinco puts up 40+ points, which is surely possible but also not near a guarantee, we should be able to best his output with a combination of two good attacking choices. With multi-goal threats like Kei Kamara, Bradley Wright-Phillips, Didier Drogba, Fanendo Adi and Cyle Larin all in action, I expect there to be a lineup out there that trumps Giovinco users. Our challenge is to find it.
However, let's start in the back. If we're not buying Giovinco, let's double down and bet on bright young keeper Andre Blake. He should have gotten a start for the Union in the U.S. Open Cup, and perhaps would have stolen the match from Sporting Kansas City if he had. In his last three starts, Blake has averaged more than 15 points and six saves despite earning just one win and one clean sheet in that stretch. If (read: when) Toronto control this match, Blake should face plenty of shots. By not purchasing Giovinco, we're hoping the Philadelphia keeper and former No. 1 overall MLS Superdraft pick saves most of them. He's a steal at $4,200 no matter the opponent. I like pairing him with Ray Gaddis ($3,800) should Philadelphia stick with their fullback selections from Wednesday. Gaddis is fairly athletic and possesses a pretty nice cross into opponents' boxes. This is appealing since Philadelphia forwards all have one thing in common: aerial ability. Rounding out our back line, I like Jordan Smith ($,3500) as one of the few talented fullbacks in the $3,000-$4,000 range. This selection will eventually allow us to purchase three top choice forwards.
Let's move to the forward and flex position. My heart is suggesting Bradley Wright-Phillips to break somewhat of a slump this weekend, and in a big way. We'd need to pair him with Accam ($7,800) and also spend a bit less in the midfield. My head, however, tells me a seemingly unstoppable Didier Drogba is $1,900 less and will allow us to grab a forward with a higher ceiling and better matchup than Accam. I ended up selecting Drogba-Larin-Adi ($28,000) over BWP-Accam-Adi ($28,900) but am admittedly torn. As mentioned in Lineup No. 1, Adi is in fine form and has a plus matchup against Sporting Kansas City's B-Team. Drogba actually boasts a better average DraftKings score than Giovinco, though a smaller sample size surely confounds matters there. I'm not sure the Chelsea legend can keep scoring at this rate, but Orlando probably aren't the team to stop him. Larin presents a higher ceiling and lower floor than Accam. He's drawn comparisons to a young Drogba and recently broke the MLS rookie goal-scoring record. This is as much a play that capitalizes on Kaka's other-worldly playmaking ability as it is a play centered around Larin's talents. Orlando are desperate for a victory and rose to the challenge last week in a convincing victory over the talented Red Bulls. Montreal are a good team, but if Larin can score a hat trick against New York, he surely is capable of goals in this match too. Overall, if fading Giovinco appeals to you this weekend, you probably want to throw in a couple of lineups with different elite forward permutations.
The midfield was not the easiest to assemble, but I am drawn towards Diego Fagundez ($7,300) and Bernardo Anor ($3,100). Anor had a very well-rounded performance against Seattle last week as SKC rested many starters. He should get the chance to impress again in Portland and we only need to rely on him for a handful of points. Fagundez is playing an eliminated Chicago Fire team, and seems to have a few dangerous scoring opportunities every time he gets on the pitch. We could opt for a couple $5,000 options instead, but I like Fagundez's upside and Anor does not feel much worse than any option in the slightly more expensive price range.
Depending on how the night goes and the lineups look, we have some flexibility in the night's final time slot. Adi, Jordan Smith and Anor combine to provide us some flexibility if there are lineup surprises or if we need to pivot to a differential rather than the consensus picks once we see where our score stands after the other games are played.
Devil's Advocate: It would be nice to have a stronger midfield pair since we did not buy Giovinco. All three of our forwards are goal-dependent rather than all-around DraftKings scorers like Giovinco, David Accam or Kei Kamara. Is doubling down on Philadelphia really smart even if we decide to fade Giovinco?
Why We'll Win: Will anybody else be crazy enough to trot out this roster? MLS is notorious for results that are completely opposite of what you expect. If Philadelphia respond with character, rather than just throw in the towel, we have a great chance. Giovinco's price can cripple lineups, and by looking elsewhere, we have secured three great MLS goal scorers. Whatever the rest of our lineup does is icing on the cake.
