DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: MLS Decision Day Strategies

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: MLS Decision Day Strategies

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

Lineup No. 1: Built Ford Tough

Happy Decision Day! It's a fitting title for this DraftKings slate, the first ever with ten matches, as there are an overwhelming number of tough personnel decisions when choosing a lineup. A lot of careful thought has been put into these eight players, and more than likely it will all go out the window when lineups are released, but it should be a great foundation to prepare for a successful final match day of the regular season.

The crux of this lineup is built around Orlando City. They're essentially eliminated from playoff contention (would need to make up an eight goal differential on New England), but play a down-and-out Philadelphia Union squad who are all bark and zero bite. Goalkeeper Tally Hall underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, leaving minimum priced Josh Ford to start in goal for the Lions. Ford has never started an MLS match, but is a five-year veteran of the league. I have no problem starting him in a tournament against the Union, who are last in the Eastern Conference in goals scored. I'll also be selecting teammate and attacking fullback extraordinaire Brek Shea ($4,400). Before his injury in June, Shea's DraftKings salary was $5,800. With Orlando needing to make up so much ground in goal differential, Shea should be unleashed to get forward at-will. He could have the most upside of any defender on this slate, only challenged by Chris Tierney ($6,700) and Harrison Afful ($5,500), who are extremely difficult to fit into lineups at those salaries. Finally, I'll be using Carlos Rivas ($5,600) quite a bit at forward. Rivas is one of the fastest players in MLS and sent in 13 crosses last match. What goes under the radar is his distance shooting ability. I haven't seen many players this season who match his ability to put such impressive velocity on shots outside the box. Alongside in-form target forward Cyle Larin and star playmaker Kaka, Rivas could end the season on quite the high note.

Another team I'm double-dipping with is the Montreal Impact. They host arch-nemesis Toronto FC in a match that could decide third place in the Eastern Conference and will have a sellout crowd supporting them at Stade Saputo. This is exactly the stage that Didier Drogba is sure to thrive on. Add in a poorly planned quote by Toronto manager Greg Vanney about Drogba being a beast one minute and falling over the next, and Drogba's motivation has likely gone from large bonfire to raging inferno. We unanimously ranked Drogba second among MLS forwards for this weekend's slate, behind a $14,200 Sebastian Giovinco, and it would not at all be surprising if the Ivorian upstaged his Italian counterpart in this match. Justin Mapp ($4,100) appears set to return to the Montreal lineup in this match and provides plenty of value. His last appearance with more than 45 minutes saw him take four shots and send in five crosses. A phenomenally accurate crosser and dangerous threat from the wing, Mapp should feed Drogba with several great scoring opportunities at a minimum. I like Dilly Duka ($5,000) as a potential pivot if Mapp does not start and a few hundred dollars extra can be freed up.

We definitely can afford one more star forward, a decision I've struggled with greatly. Obafemi Martins ($10,600) could feast upon a Real Salt Lake team that is eliminated from playoff contention. However, I'm looking to Fabian Espindola ($10,100) instead. Espindola leads DC United against the Columbus Crew in a match that decides second place in the Eastern Conference. The Argentine has been in great form, tallying 26 and 27 points in his previous two matches, respectively. Though they looked surprisingly sharp against Toronto FC last week, Columbus do not have a good defense. Additionally, Columbus could be on their back foot all match without key players Kei Kamara and Federico Higuain. Espindola earns points in more ways than Martins, resulting in a safer floor, but I think his ceiling is equally high and we can save $500. Both are great options this weekend.

Typically at this point in my DraftKings articles, we're looking for loose change in our couch to be able to fill out our lineups. This time, we have $12,000 left for a defender and midfielder. Sean Franklin ($3,900) plays the aforementioned Columbus team without their top two attackers. DC United are one point ahead of Columbus in the standings and would be happy with a 0-0 draw, so while I love Espindola in their attack, I also am a big fan of their defensive options this week. Franklin should grab a handful of crosses to go along with good clean sheet potential. Lastly, I am looking to Matias Perez Garcia ($7,500) in a must-win game for San Jose. FC Dallas have three straight clean sheets, but I cannot imagine that MPG and Chris Wondolowski allow them to get a fourth in a row. Perez Garcia shares a lot of similar traits with Espindola and has really grown into his attacking midfield role with San Jose this season. While he's only averaging a bit more than 10 points per game in his last five matches, I have a great feeling about a 20+ point performance in this crucial match. Keep in mind that FC Dallas are competing for the Supporters' Shield and will also be highly motivated, however, they may need to press the attack for three points to overtake the New York Red Bulls, which could leave San Jose with plenty of opportunities on the counter where MPG could thrive.

I want to note that I've left you with $600 to tinker with this lineup as you wish. There are countless alternatives to this promising lineup. Franklin can be upgraded to another Orlando City defender (Corey Ashe or Luke Boden) or promising attacking fullbacks Ambroise Oyongo or Angelino. Perez Garcia could be upgraded to Michael Bradley or Steven Gerrard. Rivas, with a bit of extra effort, could be turned into in-form FC Dallas forward David Texeira as he tries to secure his team the top spot in the MLS standings. We could also afford Martins over Espindola if we were still second-guessing that decision. I encourage you to make this lineup your own and share the results with me on Twitter @dfsMLS.

Devil's Advocate: The primary concern is a heavy reliance on an Orlando City team that is essentially eliminated from the playoffs. Without any proven track record, we're going to trust Josh Ford, who will surely be over-owned. Also, Justin Mapp lacks the high ceiling that we would ideally fill all five of our attacking spots with.

Why We'll Win: We've combined strong matchups with motivated players. Drogba and Espindola should shine on Decision Day, while Orlando City are the superior team to Philadelphia. The Mapp to Drogba stack has plenty of promise, while Perez Garcia is a key differential that could carry us to tournament glory.

Lineup No. 2: Adi-cted

One thing I try to do every week in this piece is give readers a viable and creatively alternative way to approach each slate. Our weekly MLS rankings provide a great template for a textbook, and surely safer approach, but taking down a tournament often requires some pizzazz. I'll definitely be throwing this slightly off-the-wall lineup into a tournament and hopefully can convince you to try something similar.

First, I'm looking to Portland's match against Colorado. I have championed Fanendo Adi ($9,500) all season, even when Caleb Porter inexplicably glued him to the bench. The striker has recently returned the favor, with five goals and an assist in his last four matches. Colorado has very little left to play for, which should result in more open attacking play and a less stingy defense. Adi's teammate Darlington Nagbe ($6,600) has looked fantastic this fall, too. While he normally gets on the score sheet far less than his talent suggests he should, the absence of Diego Valeri in this game could pave the way for Nagbe to plant his flag as a player deserving of a US National Team call up. Colorado's midfield isn't as bad as many think, but Portland's midfield ran all over the Los Angeles Galaxy last week.

It pained me to leave Obafemi Martins out of the first lineup, so I am surely buying in with this one. When in-form, he is as dangerous as anybody in Major League Soccer (yes, alongside players like Giovinco, Kamara, Robbie Kean, etc.). He has scored eight goals in his last nine games, a measure of consistency that few can boast during any stretch of this season. If teammate Clint Dempsey ever awakens from his slumber, Martins could be even more dangerous.

Also at forward, I can't pass up the immense value of David Texeira ($6,500). Playing ahead of Fabian Castillo, Mauro Diaz and Michael Barrios, Texeira is the MLS version of Crystal Palace's striker in the Premier League. With talent all around him, he has looked sharp and dangerous in front of goal. As FC Dallas chase the Supporters' Shield, I expect Texeira to keep shooting and have a good chance to bury a goal. He has three in his past four matches and is probably the best sub-$7,000 option on this slate.

Now comes the curveball: Ben Speas. Speas ($3,300) is a talented attacking midfielder who has unfortunately been stuck behind Federico Higuain all season. Columbus have a few options to replace Higuain in this crucial match but Hector Jiminez and Mohammed Saeid do not provide the attacking spark that Speas can, and a tie won't do the Crew any good. For all of the attention on which teams are most motivated this weekend, individual players' motivations may be more important. Speas is a rare case of a cheap player who could get a chance on a playoff-bound team, but young talents on eliminated squads also deserve your attention. Speas opens up a great deal of salary for the rest of our roster and should easily return value if he appears in the starting 11.

In goal I like Bill Hamid and Bobby Shuttleworth both at $4,800. Since we have a piece of the Columbus attack against Hamid, I've opted for Shuttleworth instead. It's tough to say how NYC FC will show in this game, particularly since they have come out pretty flat all season. Jason Kreis is on the hot seat and something tells me that his players are not motivated to save him. While talents like David Villa and Frank Lampard should desire to end the season on a rare high note, I think New England will take care of business.

Finally, I'm looking to stack Vancouver defenders. Houston must make a long journey to Vancouver with no hope of making the playoffs, while the Whitecaps are fighting for a top-2 spot in the Western Conference. Vancouver have allowed the second-fewest goals this season, while Houston have scored multiple goals in just one of their previous six matches. We talked on this week's podcast about Kendall Waston's palpable hunger to score a goal in recent matches, and though he is a centerback, I'm willing to buy in at $3,700. If I'm a Houston defender ready to stroll into the offseason, the last thing I want to do is clash heads/bodies with one of the scariest aerial threats in Major League Soccer on a set piece. I've also budgeted for Whitecaps fullback Steve Beitashour, though Jordan Harvey or Jordan Smith are fairly equal in my eyes and cheaper. See who is starting, and adjust from there.

Devil's Advocate: Our midfield leaves a little to be desired and we do not have an elite attacking fullback option. Nagbe has rarely won anybody a tournament and Texeira is playing a tough and motivated defense.

Why We'll Win: Adi and Martins are the definition of multi-goal threats, and Texeira has a recent brace to his name as well. We haven't paid too much for a midfield position that often disappoints big spenders. Shuttleworth has a great shot for a victory, even if a clean sheet gets ruined. The Whitecaps should take care of business against Houston and provide a safe floor to go along with Waston's set piece goal upside.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. JD Bazzo plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: OfficerBo, Yahoo: DeNirosDinero.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
JD Bazzo
JD is a former RotoWire contributor. He was a finalist for the 2017 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year award. JD had been writing for RotoWire since 2015. He is a proud Pittsburgh native, purveyor of fantasy sports, and likely the first Penn State Basketball fan you've ever met.
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