This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Wednesday brings another six-game Champions League slate dominated by big favorites. Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid all have better than a 70-percent chance to win with implied goal totals well above two. The question is who to trust and where to put the majority of your money.
DraftKings DFS Content for Wednesday's UCL slate
MATCHES (ET)
- 3:00 pm: Arsenal vs. Sevilla
- 3:00 pm: Bayern Munich vs. Galatasaray
- 3:00 pm: FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester United
- 3:00 pm: PSV Eindhoven vs. Lens
- 3:00 pm: Real Madrid vs. SC Braga
- 3:00 pm: Red Bull Salzburg vs. Inter Milan
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Harry Kane (BAY vs. GAL, $10,700): I don't know how much Kane I'm going to play as I like to be contrarian, but it's impossible for me not to write him up. He's on back-to-back hat tricks following two massive league wins (combined 12-0 scorelines), including a 4-0 result at Borussia Dortmund. Galatasaray put up a good fight in the first leg, but they still gave up three goals on 14 shots. At -300 to score, Kane will probably have at least five shots with a couple being on target. He won't be overly popular in cash games because of his teammates with higher floors, but if he gets another hat trick, you'll be done. If you fade him in tournaments, hope that he only gets one goal and everything else comes from the wings. That's a tough ask considering he has 17 goals and seven assists through 13 league and UCL matches, but it's a possibility.
Jamal Musiala (BAY vs. GAL, $6,900): Musiala's floor is slightly worse than Kingsley Coman's ($8,300) because he doesn't cross as much, but he's on the ball just as much and is just as likely to score. I think Musiala's discount is reason enough to consider him in cash games, as Joshua Kimmich ($8,800) is in a range I don't want to touch. Do you want the automatic 15 points from Kimmich or do you want an eight-point floor with 20-point upside for $1,900 cheaper? Kimmich is just in a range I don't want to push for at this point, even in a great matchup.
Hirving Lozano (PSV vs. LEN, $5,000): I don't think you need to spend down at your second forward, but Lozano can be used in utility or midfield if needed. He's gone at least 82 minutes the last three matches including a hat trick against Ajax in league play. He's cheap and home against a team that I don't fully trust defensively. Lozano has better or similar goalscoring odds to Rasmus Hojlund ($7,400), Alexis Sanchez ($8,100) and Coman. Johan Bakayoko ($6,400) is also in play for a heavier price. Given the cheap prices of some of these PSV players, it's easy to spend up a few times.
I think Bayern Munich are more likely to bag four-plus goals, which is why I'm leaning toward them over Arsenal and Real Madrid players. If Jude Bellingham ($9,800) doesn't play, Los Blancos don't really have a consistent goalscorer, though Vinicius Junior ($10,200) is always in play to smash. You could argue the same for Bukayo Saka ($10,000), Gabriel Martinelli ($9,000) and Eddie Nketiah ($8,200).
One of the big favorites will score five goals and the other two will score three or fewer. Your task is to pick the team that scores five goals.
MIDFIELDERS
Leroy Sane (BAY vs. GAL, $9,300): I'm cheating here a bit since Sane can be used as a forward. He has a slightly better floor than Kane and saves you a bit of money, while Coman is even cheaper. I'm siding with Sane because he has a better floor and makes the scoresheet more consistently. Of course, if you think Bayern are scoring more than three goals with 20-plus shots, everyone is in play. I'm still not heavy on Coman in cash games, as he has eight shots total in his last four starts and has surpassed 20 DraftKings points once this season. Even though Kane is $2,400 more expensive, I think I'd rather want the 30 points than the 15 from Coman.
Kerem Akturkoglu (GAL at BAY, $4,100): There isn't much in the mid-range, so if you're stuck around $6,000 or $7,000, maybe adjust a few things unless you really like Hakan Calhanoglu ($7,600). Bayern aren't invincible defensively and as seen in the prior meeting, Akturkoglu will look to attack. Through three Champions League matches, he has 13 shots and 11 crosses with a role on sets. If you'd rather back a favorite, Scott McTominay ($3,800) likes to creep up from his midfield position and seems to always have at least one great opportunity per match.
If you don't need to save money, I haven't mentioned Bruno Fernandes ($9,900), though he'll likely have to be used above at least one of the Arsenal or Bayern Munich pieces. But since you can play Sane in the midfield, I'm not sure why I'd push for Fernandes on a struggling United side when he's more expensive.
DEFENDERS
Diogo Goncalves (CPH vs. MU, $4,000): Everyone overlooked Goncalves in the last slate and he's close to a lock Wednesday... if he starts. For unclear reasons, since the Manchester United result, he's been benched in two of three league matches and only went 45 minutes as a starter in the other one. He's listed as a defender, but he usually plays in the midfield or front three for Copenhagen and may have a majority role on set pieces. If Goncalves doesn't start, Christian Sorensen ($3,300) is a fine replacement, as he's cheaper and similarly plays in a midfield role with at least a split of sets.
While Roony Bardghji ($3,200) isn't a defender, he's in this conversation because he would also have a split of sets if in the XI and at 17 years old, no one knows who he is despite being a possible starter in the front three. A full 90 isn't guaranteed for any of these Copenhagen players, but I think they're all underpriced home against Man United. Bardghji was subbed off after 60 minutes over the weekend and went 90 in league play a couple weeks ago, so it's possible for him.
Peter Ankersen (CPH vs. MU, $2,600): This might be the craziest defender section I've written, but why is Ankersen $2,600? He's a full-back who had 8.7 floor points in the reverse fixture and has seven crosses in two UCL starts against Man United and Bayern Munich. At this price, you're not hoping for a lot, and since there aren't any high-end, must-play defenders on the slate, it's a reasonable play.
If you're more comfortable backing a center-back with decent clean sheet odds, William Saliba ($3,200) and Gabriel ($3,100) fit the bill. If you want to spend up, Alphonso Davies ($5,400) doesn't seem worth it and Diogo Dalot ($5,100) will probably only reach his ceiling if Man United are forced to press, which is definitely possible.
I don't often like playing defenders against Inter, but Amar Dedic ($3,300) and Andreas Ulmer ($2,900) had decent performances two weeks ago and are now at home.
GOALKEEPER
Matheus (BRA at RMA, $3,700): I was initially going to spend up on Kepa Arrizabalaga ($5,600) but thought better of it, as this is Champions League. If Bellingham doesn't start for Real Madrid, this feels like a great spot to rack up saves for Matheus even if five goals allowed is always a possibility. Any of the three big favorites can be used and since I already touted every Copenhagen defender, Kamil Grabara ($4,500) seems like a good option. I'll likely be betting against Manchester United in some way in this matchup.
