This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
This Showdown with Tottenham hosting Everton is a difficult one to dissect for several reasons. Prices seem more expensive than usual and that makes it difficult to roster the players with set pieces. Compounding this issue, these same players are at risk for early substitutions and both teams have split their set pieces recently.
Sportsbooks have Spurs at around 64 percent to win with a 42-percent chance to keep a clean sheet. Call me a jaded Tottenham fan, but I am not as confident as the odds suggest. I am certainly not sold on them as a fantasy-friendly side. They rank sixth (tied with Brighton) in the Premier League in shots and chances created this season, eighth in corners taken and 14th in total crosses. Even at home, Spurs are content to let lesser opposition possess the ball and play on the counterattack. I'm projecting a game where Tottenham score a goal or two, but Everton will certainly have their chances, as well.
12:30 pm: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Tottenham vs. Everton Showdown Cheat Sheet
CASH GAME STRATEGY
Heung-Min Son ($11,800) is the best play on the slate and I expect him to be a popular cash-game captain. That said, I'm concerned about his floor for a couple reasons. He's priced as if he has a monopoly of set pieces, but if Ivan Perisic ($9,000) starts, he will split corners with Son. Depending on Tottenham's starting lineup, Son is also at risk of a substitution around the 80-minute mark. This is something to keep in mind for tournaments, but for cash games, I still prefer Son in the captain spot to Perisic and Harry Kane ($12,200). Kane usually goes 90 minutes but his -115 anytime goalscoring odds are not enough for me to make up for his low floor. Perisic was rested in the midweek Champions League match, but he's still a big risk to be subbed around the 75th minute (if not earlier) himself.
I already mentioned that I think Everton will have plenty of opportunities to possess the ball in this match. Demarai Gray ($10,000) splits set pieces with Dwight McNeil ($9,400) and the later is expected to start again with Anthony Gordon suspended. McNeil is usually substituted when he starts, so if I pay up for an Everton attacker, I would like to find the extra $600 to get to Gray. He's been reliable in difficult matchups this season, scoring 15 fantasy points against Manchester United last weekend and 13.7 against Liverpool earlier this season.
Ryan Sessegnon ($6,200) seems like a solid value option and I was surprised that his anytime goalscoring odds of +340 were slightly better than Neal Maupay's ($7,800). Alex Iwobi ($6,600) is in great form himself. In the last three games he has a goal, two assists, four shots and seven chances created. He and Sessegnon seem like the best mid-range options. Punt options will be necessary to fit under the salary cap and Yves Bissouma ($3,200) would be a solid option if he starts. On the Everton side, Seamus Coleman ($3,400) is cheap for a full-back and defensive midfielder Amadou Onana ($3,000) isn't afraid to shoot.
If you captain Son, you can afford to flex two of the premium options mentioned above. Depending on if you roster Kane, the other three players will range from Sessegnon and two punt options to three players below $4,000. I expect many cash-game lineups to look like this, or slight variations of it.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
Now that we understand what cash constructions will look like, we can start to dig into the best way to attack tournaments. With the chalk pieces all fragile in some way, we have a lot of options and I don't consider any player a must.
In my 1-0 Showdown article, I mention the strategy of captaining attacking full-backs, especially in situations where pricing is tight. If you want to play Kane and Son together, captaining Sessegnon is a great way to make that work without sacrificing as many as three lineup spots to punt plays. He gets forward as a wing-back and I already mentioned he has surprisingly strong goalscoring odds. If Matt Doherty ($7,000) starts, he is a similar option. Even outside of 1-0 constructions, Sessegnon makes sense as a captain so that you can afford someone like Maupay to pair with Gray.
The majority of people will want to roster Tottenham attackers, but in games where Tottenham aren't clinical on the counterattack, I see routes to Everton players being in tournament winning lineups. Constructions with Gray, McNeil and Maupay will be very contrarian and keep you from rostering multiple high-end Tottenham players. I think the risk is worth the reward in this situation. It's easy to imagine Perisic coming off earlier than expected and Son to not pay off his lofty price tag, something that's happened more than not this season. More balanced lineups with multiple Everton attackers are the ones that stand to benefit in those game scripts.
I'm always fond of captaining goalkeepers in Showdown, but Hugo Lloris ($8,200) is expensive. I don't think he's going to come into tournaments under owned, so I'd rather find the money to captain someone like Perisic. I'm more interested in Jordan Pickford ($4,600). Pickford has access to a ceiling based on saves that almost none of the other players in that price range can realistically match. I'm not likely to go with the very off-the-board Pickford captain, but I'll be looking to play him in the flex over the cash game options I mentioned above and hope Tottenham can force him to make several saves.
