This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
The Premier League is back in full swing and Sunday features the Manchester Derby, as Manchester City are sizable favorites hosting rivals Manchester United. City have had a solid start to the season and outside of an away draw to Aston Villa, are in cruise control offensively in the league. As usual, they have dominated possession and have averaged over three goals per match with Erling Haaland in peak form, already with 11 goals. The betting odds have them at around a 70-percent favorite to win at the time of writing.
On the other side, Manchester United have begun to find their form in league play after a terrible start to their 2022/23 campaign. While the results have improved, their offensive performance has still been lackluster, with only seven league goals in six matches. It's been difficult for this side to find some offensive firepower and while Cristiano Ronaldo is again projected to start on the bench, new signing Antony brings some spark to the attack.
Overall, it projects to be a high-scoring game environment with a combined implied team total around 3.3. City will dominate at home on the ball, but we'll also expect United to have opportunities to strike on the counter. City have been giving up goals this season and will certainly be vulnerable with John Stones out and Aymeric Laporte unlikely to start.
9:00 a.m. ET: Manchester City vs. Manchester United
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
CASH GAME STRATEGY
You'll have to make some decisions on 2v2s, but cash seems straightforward in this Showdown. Based on our projected starting XI, Kevin De Bruyne ($10,200) will be taking most of City's set pieces and projects to be the best play by a large margin. His activity in open play combined with set piece role puts him comfortably ahead of everyone else in the higher end of the price range, and I think he will be the most popular player and captain in cash games and in tournaments. Erling Haaland ($11,200) is in unbelievable form and at -165 anytime goalscorer odds, I think he is going to be popular in cash games. In previous Showdown slates this season, he has been on over 80 percent of rosters. I know the floor isn't really there for Haaland, but it makes sense to include him in your cash game lineups just to keep up with the field. I'm not sure who you are going to pay for, otherwise. Haaland's floor on shots is similar to the floors of Phil Foden ($8,800), Bernardo Silva ($8,600), and Jack Grealish ($7,600). None of them are locks to play 90 minutes, so it's difficult to justify fading Haaland in this spot. I'd like to pair Haaland and De Bruyne with either two of the other forwards above, or one of them and Joao Cancelo ($7,000), who has played a full 90 minutes in his last four starts for City.
With little team possession, the premium options for Manchester United are not projected to pay off their price tags. Even in previous and much more favorable matchups, Bruno Fernandes ($8,000) and Christian Eriksen ($7,200) have struggled to accrue floor points. I'd rather just roster four premium Manchester City options and then punt twice. Manuel Akanji ($3,400) and Ruben Dias ($3,800) seem too cheap as favored center-backs on a team with implied clean sheet odds of 47 percent and punting with any of the Manchester United defenders seems fine if it means loading up on City pieces. Tyrell Malacia ($3,800) is cheap and at least has a shot to get a few crosses in. It's even possible to fit Jadon Sancho ($5,000) and he's at the very least a bit more likely to bail you out with a goal or assist. In cash games, I'm not considering Rodri ($6,000) and since City allow few shots on goal, Ederson ($6,400) is probably going to score around three to five points if City don't keep a clean sheet. I'd rather find the salary for one of City's forwards.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
The main Showdown GPP for this match has 941 entries, so let's get into some strategies for taking this tournament down. Haaland is going to be extremely popular. If you play him, you'll need to find a way to differentiate yourself from the field. In a GPP this size, you don't need to go as far as fading someone like De Bruyne to accomplish this. However, you should still consider constructions that deviate from the cash-game strategy discussed above.
First, I wrote about 1-0 constructions in Showdown and I think a lot of those strategies apply to this slate. Additionally, with a high implied goal total, I expect 1-0 constructions to be less popular than usual. In these types of constructions, I am open to captaining or flexing Haaland in the same lineup with the very affordable David de Gea ($4,200). De Gea is a very good flex option in tournaments in general and he could easily make values on saves alone if he faces shots on target, assuming City are not as efficient as usual.
If you want to build lineups under the hypothesis that United score a goal, I still think there are ways to get different while still playing De Bruyne and Haaland. If we assume that those two dominate the fantasy scoring in this game, while Foden, Grealish, and Cancelo make little impact, you'll want to look for the Manchester United goal and assist. I've already mentioned the cheap Jadon Sancho, but salary is going to keep the field's utilization of Bruno Fernandes ($8,000), Antony ($7,400) and Marcus Rashford ($8,600) in check. Antony in particular takes plenty of shots, so he is my preferred option out of this group.
For those opting to fade Haaland, the salary relief opens up all sorts of lineup combinations for you to tinker with. This includes constructions that feature three to four City attackers and one or two United attackers. I think lineups like this have the chance to do well in games where either Haaland fails to score a goal or he only scores one goal but the game still ends 3-2. You can even fade Haaland in 1-0 constructions and I certainly don't expect that sort of lineup to be popular.
I think just about any City attacker, including Cancelo, is an option in the captain spot in tournaments. I'd rather captain Cancelo, Foden or Grealish than one of the premium United options. City are projected to have more possession and opportunities in this game, so I don't think it's necessary to captain Manchester United players even if they don't get used very often in the captain spot.
For some outside-the-box and volatile constructions, I wouldn't be surprised if Sancho scored a goal. This combined with his cheap price makes him an interesting salary saving captain option. I'm not interested in captaining Ederson for the reasons I mentioned above, but David de Gea is absolutely in play in the captain spot. Last season, Manchester City beat Everton 1-0, but a Jordan Pickford captain lineup won a 1,100-entry GPP with seven saves (and as much as I'd like to take credit for this, it wasn't me). I've seen sharp tournament players sprinkle in low salary plays in the captain spot in several GPPs this season, so that is definitely a route worth considering.
