This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
UCL Best Bets for Paris Saint-Germain vs. Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund held serve in the first leg, getting a massive Niclas Fullkrug goal in the first half, while keeping Kylian Mbappe in check for 90 minutes. It was an impressive result that will be hard to replicate in Paris.
PSG are expected to win the second leg at home as a -210 favorite and are even -150 to advance despite being a goal down. If you removed the names and only took stats from the last match, I'd probably be on Dortmund to advance. However, Mbappe only needs a bit of space to turn a tie on its head and after hitting the post a couple times last week, he and his teammates will surely find the back of the net.
While Dortmund have one of the best home-field advantages in the world, they have some nice wins away from home this season. They won at Newcastle and AC Milan in group stages, as well as at Bayern Munich in league play. They even took a point at Bayer Leverkusen, who have 13 wins and three draws in 16 home league matches.
Still, there's a reason PSG have a 65-percent chance to win, according to the odds. Even in Dortmund, they compiled a 1.57 xG in the second half from 11 shots and four "big chances," per OPTA.
Now at home, it's hard to see PSG not racking up opportunities until they get goals. That likely means Dortmund will be playing off the counter the majority of this match, which was also how they played for large chunks in the first leg.
That means I'll be heavy on underlying stats like overs on PSG shots.
If you don't bet on props like shots and corners, PSG -1.5 at +120 will be a popular bet. In that same mold, as long as you don't think it'll be 2-0, you could parlay PSG moneyline with over 2.5 goals at -115.
Dortmund will either hold strong for 90 minutes and keep this match lower scoring or it will get back and forth, with both sides having opportunity after opportunity. Prior meetings this season don't suggest that happening, but second legs are always in play to blow up big with goals since you're playing for everything.
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Betting on Corners
There's not a ton of value betting corners this match because PSG are expected to attack from the start and rack up more opportunities. I'm not taking PSG over 7.5 corners because that's a pure sucker bet. When you bet a favored team to have that many corners, you need the underdog to sit back and not allow goals.
For the under to hit, PSG could score three goals in the first half and only accrue one or two corners in the process. Or, corners simply don't happen for them. They had three in the second half last match despite being in the same situation.
However, because I think PSG will score (at some point), I'm interested in both teams to get at least 3.5 corners at +150 odds.
Dortmund race to three corners at +360 seems wild, but are they really going to sit back from the start and play 11 behind the ball for 90 minutes? I don't think so. If I like that, I also like Dortmund +1.75 corners in the first half.
Betting on Shots
The odds are incredibly juiced for PSG and that's seen in Mbappe being -130 to have at least six shots. It's rare Erling Haaland has a number that big for worse than even odds. Mbappe was limited to three shots in the first match, as Dortmund threw defenders at home any time he got the ball. Even in the second leg against Barcelona, who played down a man the majority of the match, Mbappe finished with seven shots. You can add five Mbappe shots to your bet, but I'm not betting seven or eight shots in this spot.
On the other side, Dembele had the ball in plenty favorable positions and had four shots in the first match. After not having a match over the weekend, I expect another 90 minutes for Dembele, who is averaging 3.33 shots per 90 in UCL play. I think Dembele to get at least three shots at -190 is a worthy parlay piece.
Achraf Hakimi found himself in the box with the ball a few times in that first leg and is another usable piece. Still, -175 for Hakimi to have at least two shots are somewhat ridiculous odds.
I'll also take Fabian Ruiz and Vitinha to each have at least one shot. Both are in play for 90 minutes and getting one shot shouldn't be too hard if PSG have close to 60-percent possession.
Since the odds are heavy PSG, you can get decent odds on Dortmund. While I said I was fading the Dortmund shot props, they're not going to finish with zero shots. Jadon Sancho is -240 and Julian Brandt is -210 to have at least one shot. Fullkrug is -125 to have at least one shot on target and figures to be in favorable situations on the counter.
Single-Game Parlays
Your best move is to start with how you think this match will finish. If you think there will be goals, put together a massive SGP with that in mind. If you think Dortmund can keep PSG out for more than 45 minutes, build a parlay around that.
My +245 parlay is based off any result happening, meaning it's guaranteed to hit (right?), assuming PSG don't lose. Obviously, if you think PSG are going to win, use that instead.
PSG vs. Dortmund Dortmund Betting Picks
- SGP: PSG to win + over 2.5 goals -115
- Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 corners +110
- SGP: PSG double chance + Each team over 2.5 corners + Dembele 3+ shots + Hakimi 1+ shot + Ruiz 1+ shot = +245
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