This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The second legs of the Champions League Round of 16 kicks off Tuesday with a match that should be one-sided when you look at the odds, as Bayern Munich are -370 on the moneyline to defeat Lazio. Meanwhile, PSG are underdogs away to Real Sociedad, already up 2-0 in the tie. Wednesday will have more one-sided matchups, as Manchester City (-750) and Real Madrid (-185) are projected to take home victories over Copenhagen and RB Leipzig, respectively.
Champions League Best Bets for Tuesday, March 5
Harry Kane to take five or more shots against Lazio +125
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Kane has been desperately trying to will this team to some sort of hardware after they were knocked out of the domestic cup competition back in November by FC Saarbrucken (I hadn't heard of them before either) and trail Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga by 10 points.
As part of that, he's recorded 20 shots in his last three matches, which is why I'm willing to go in search of this high bar to get some value. For less risk/reward, you could simply take Kane to get four or more shots at -165 which isn't a terrible amount of juice to give up.
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Real Sociedad +200
I certainly understand the hesitation to back PSG . They don't need to win as they are already up 2-0 on aggregate and will be on the road. They have also suffered a pair of draws in their last two league matches while scoring just one combined goal, not exactly a team in peak form.
Still, Kylian Mbappe remains one of the best players in the world no matter what's going on with his situation at PSG. Manager Luis Enrique has spoken publicly about preparing for life without Mbappe, though, so consistent rotation could be on the cards in the back half of the season. He's got seven goals in his last nine matches and comes in with +125 odds to score.
For me, that's a fantastic spot to double down and take both PSG to win and Mbappe to score, something that almost certainly has to happen for them to take home the victory.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, March 6
Manchester City -2.5 against Copenhagen +105
Admittedly, it was a struggle to find some value in this one given the one-sided nature of the matchup. City are -750 on the moneyline in a home matchup against a much weaker opponent. The total of 3.5 feels like a trap, as an early Man City lead could see them take their foot off the gas considering they are already up 3-1 after the first leg.
Erling Haaland to score isn't returning any value at -225, so you could turn to Julian Alvarez at -120 but even there you are giving up some value. I was tempted to consider Haaland to score two or more at +200 and may still go that route.
Ultimately, I landed on the spread at -2.5 which isn't a high return at +105, but it's at least getting even money. It would necessitate at least a 3-0 win by the Citizens, so maybe going back to the 3.5 total and taking the over isn't the worst play.
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RB Leipzig draw no bet against Real Madrid +320
This is the long shot of the article with Leipzig having to go on the road to Madrid and secure something. They are great value on the moneyline at +450 but I won't be shocked to see this one end in a draw, which would still see Real Madrid advance. Another option is to go RB Leipzig double chance, which comes in at a fairly decent +145.
Still, the German club only lost to Bayern Munich (2-1) and Real Madrid (1-0) since the start of February. Meanwhile, Madrid have been playing remarkably undisciplined of late with red cards in two of their last four matches, though neither of those bans will affect the availability of players in UCL competition.
UCL Betting Picks Round of 16
- Harry Kane to take five or more shots against Lazio +125
- Paris Saint-Germain to beat Real Sociedad +200
- Manchester City -2.5 against Copenhagen +105
- RB Leipzig draw no bet against Real Madrid +320
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