This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
UCL Best Bets for Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain
When these teams last played in group stages (Dec. 13), Borussia Dortmund were already almost guaranteed to advance to knockouts and only a loss by multiple goals to PSG would've seen them drop to second in Group F. PSG had a little more to play for and they pushed the majority of the match, racking up 2.86 xG but just one goal in a 1-1 draw.
In the first meeting, PSG were fairly dominant in a 2-0 win, limiting the away side to just .41 xG from open play.
Given that one match was in Paris and the other was a match Dortmund didn't fully need, it's hard to take too much away from those in group stages. That said, it was clear in each contest that PSG could score and get opportunities as needed.
Some teams and managers view first legs away from home as ones to play tight so you don't lose by two or three goals. However, I'm not sure Luis Enrique falls into that camp, especially since he knows he has the better team.
It's hard to get a good feel for either of these teams, PSG haven't been trying in Ligue 1 for months and Dortmund are five points behind fourth place in the Bundesliga. No matter, I think prior matchups and the way these teams play suggests goals.
Like most teams, Dortmund are a menace at home and the four goals scored against Atletico Madrid last round highlight that. Meanwhile, PSG haven't held a clean sheet in 18-straight matches away from home in Champions League.
While Dortmund are at home, they aren't good enough to dominate and sit in their attacking third the majority of the match, so I think that leads to a back-and-forth contest in which both sides get quality chances. Both teams to score is -215 and over 3.5 goals is +125, so the odds agree with that analysis.
I think PSG are the better team, but winning in Dortmund is another thing.
Parlaying both teams to score and Dortmund gets you +110, while the PSG double chance gets you -105. I think this is headed for a 1-1, 2-2 or 2-1 result for either side. Kylian Mbappe is always scary to bet against and I keep thinking about Dortmund's back line against this PSG attack. Outside of a random win at Bayern Munich a month ago, they've been mostly bad against top competition.
I was initially on Dortmund, but I'm not sure the home pitch is enough to stop Mbappe and company. Neither one of these teams is sound defensively and while that doesn't give an edge to either side, I trust PSG's attack more and that edge is just enough against the home-pitch advantage.
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Betting on Corners
I think the biggest edge in this matchup is PSG on the wings against Julian Ryerson and Ian Maatsen. Maatsen was playing in the EFL Championship a year ago and now he's up against a healthy Ousmane Dembele, while Bradley Barcola and Mbappe operate the other side.
Still, I'm siding slightly with the home side in terms of corners. Dortmund need this match more because they can't head to Paris needing a win. I think taking high corners for the game or in the first half are all in play, while I'm leaning Dortmund between the teams.
I prefer Dortmund race to five corners at +105, while race to seven at +260 gets you a few more. Dortmund -.5 corners for the match at even odds makes plenty of sense, too.
Betting on Shots
Since PSG are slightly favored, I like the numbers more on Dortmund's players in terms of shots, among other things. However, I think the shot tallies will be fairly even if not favored toward the home side. Playing at home in a Champions League semifinal has to be taken into account.
That said, the odds are still juiced, which isn't surprising. Marcel Sabitzer is -150 to have at least two shots despite averaging just 2.09 shots per 90 in league play and 1.09 in UCL. Jadon Sancho has six shots in his last 12 starts and he's +110 to get at least two shots. Julian Brandt is most intriguing at +120, though I wouldn't call it my favorite bet.
Barcola makes the most sense in terms of value on the PSG side, as he's -110 to take at least two shots, which is the same as Vitinha. Fabian Ruiz at +225 is worth a look if you're into longer odds.
If looking for an Mbappe bet, you either have to take five or more shots at +160 or two-plus shots on target at -125.
Single-Game Parlays
I'm removing a double chance from this SGP to make it a little safer (when are SGPs safe?). Instead, I threw in over 2.5 goals with a couple corner overs and shot props on Mbappe, Dembele and Brandt.
Dortmund vs. PSG Dortmund Betting Picks
- SGP: PSG double chance + both teams to score -105
- Borussia Dortmund race to 5 corners +105
- SGP: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals + over 3.5 corners 1H + Dortmund over 4.5 corners + PSG over 3.5 corners + Mbappe 4+ shots + Dembele 2+ shots + Brandt 1+ shot +750
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