This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Only four teams remain in Champions League action, as Borussia Dortmund square off with Paris Saint-Germain and fellow German club Bayern Munich match up with Real Madrid. Bayern Munich have a slight edge in the odds at +150 to win and PSG at +145, despite being the away side. As far as the overall champion odds, Real Madrid lead the way at +140, followed by PSG (+250), Bayern Munich (+250) and Dortmund (+850).
Champions League Best Bets for Tuesday, April 30
Bayern Munich Draw No Bet against Real Madrid -120
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Looking at the moneyline odds, there is a heavy risk in backing either of the two teams while leaving the draw on the board (double chance). The odds slightly favor Bayern because they are playing at home, which has been a fortress for the club, for the most part, winning six of their last seven in all competitions.
Instead, to take the draw off the board, I like the draw no bet odds, so that you can at least get your money back should the game end in a draw. There are certainly arguments in favor of either side, so you could reasonably back Real Madrid at -105. For me money, however, taking Bayern at home is too good of value.
Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer +100
Kane has found his stride of late with three goals on nine shots (seven on target) in his last two matches. On the season, the English forward has racked up 35 goals in 31 Bundesliga contests while also adding seven goals in his 10 UCL matchups.
Of all the players on the slate, Kane has the best odds of finding the back of the net at even money, which is the best play for me. For Real Madrid, the favorite to score is Vinicius Junior at +160, but I prefer to look toward Jude Bellingham, who was rested on the weekend and returns +180 odds.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, May 1
Paris Saint-Germain to beat Borussia Dortmund +140
Despite being away from home, PSG are the marginal favorite at +140 but with good reason considering they have lost just once in their last 32 matches. It should be noted that these two clubs were in the same group earlier in the competition.
In those contests, PSG won at home 2-0 the first time out while the two sides played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in Dortmund on Dec. 13. The Parisians seem to have Dortmund's number and figure to keep rolling onto the eventual final. A road win in the first leg would certainly bolster their chances.
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Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer -120
It's hard not to just take the easy play and go with Mbappe to score at -120. If PSG are going to win, which I think they will, Mbappe will almost certainly have to net at least once.
In terms of longer shots, I like the value out of Goncalo Ramos at +175 after he scored in five of his last eight appearances. Of course, Ramos logged just five minutes off the bench in the previous two UCL clashes.
If Ramos starts, he's the bet if he starts, but consider taking the safe money and backing Mbappe, as well. If you want to look to the other side of the pitch, Niclas Fullkrug is +180 as the top option for Dortmund but has scored just twice in his last 12 matches.
UCL Betting Picks for Semifinals first leg
- Bayern Munich Draw No Bet against Real Madrid -120
- Kane Anytime Goalscorer against Real Madrid +100
- PSG to beat Borussia Dortmund +140
- Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer against Dortmund -120
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