This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The Champions League is back with the second leg of quarter-finals with plenty still to play for after two draws and two one-goal matchups in the first leg. Unsurprisingly, Manchester City and Bayern Munich are favorites in their clashes with Real Madrid and Arsenal, respectively, after forcing draws away from home. In fact, all of the home sides are favored in the second legs, while PSG face the longest odds to advance at +320 in Barcelona.
Champions League Best Bets for Tuesday, April 16
Draw between PSG and Barcelona +295
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Barcelona can take their foot off the pedal and finish with a draw after coming through up 3-2 in the first leg, while on the road no less. It may not be Camp Nou, but the Spanish side hasn't suffered a home defeat since Jan. 27 versus Villarreal.
If you want to take them to win, the value is there at +120. Or look at Paris Saint-Germain for the upset at +200, though at that point you might as well take PSG to advance at +320. Still, the draw seems likely with Barcelona being able to just park the bus on this one and ride through on aggregate.
Atletico Madrid to beat Borussia Dortmund +210
There is plenty of risk in taking Atletico to secure the win in Dortmund, especially since they don't have to win, already up 2-1 after the first leg. However, the club is riding a three-match winning streak that includes the win in the reverse fixture.
Still, second behind Manchester City, Atletico have scored 21 goals in Champions League play while Dortmund have managed just 11. Another option if you still want to back Atletico is to look at the Draw No Bet at +125, which gives you the push if they take a more defensive approach.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, April 17
SGP: Manchester City to beat Real Madrid + over 2.5 goals +120
Manchester City forced a 3-3 draw in Madrid last week and find themselves playing within the confines of the Etihad where they have yet to lose this season. The club has also shown an ability to shut things down in close games while also playing high-scoring thrillers, like the first leg.
This figures to be an offensive battle with the 2.5 total easily reachable when you consider six were scored in the first leg. You could go payout hunting and take City to win and over 3.5 goals at +220 or play it safe and take the over 1.5 at -120, but the middle road combined solid value with a manageable total.
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Bayern Munich to beat Arsenal +140
I bounced around a number of ideas for this one and none of them favor the Gunners, who are +180 on the moneyline and even money (+100) to advance after the 2-2 draw at the Emirates. But this is a club coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Aston Villa on Sunday, though perhaps they were overlooking their Premier League opponents with an eye toward Wednesday.
It's been a tumultuous season for Bayern Munich, but winning solves everything and knocking out Arsenal on the way to the semi-finals would be a huge win for a team that is already having to watch Bayer Leverkusen lift the Bundesliga title. The moneyline win is a solid payout at +140 and my pick here, but I also considered Bayern Munich to advance at -125.
Bonus Play: Harry Kane has faced Arsenal 20 times across all competitions and scored on the Gunners 15 times, a mark that is only topped by his goals against Leicester City (20 in 20) and Everton (16 in 17). The Bayern Munich striker returns solid +125 anytime goalscorer odds in this one.
UCL Betting Picks for Quarter-finals second leg
- Draw between PSG and Barcelona +295
- Atletico Madrid to beat Borussia Dortmund +210
- SGP: Manchester City to beat Real Madrid + over 2.5 goals +120
- Bayern Munich to beat Arsenal +140
- Harry Kane to Score (+125)
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