This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's the business end of the season which means half the league has nothing to play for. That doesn't mean it's easy to bet games, but motivation and the style of play is evident by some results. Dean Smith is likely to give more youngsters some run and while Norwich City are fighting not to finish last, that doesn't mean much. Everton and Leeds United are fighting to stay out of relegation, yet they're in this situation for a reason. Everton are playing not to allow a goal at the moment, while Leeds are struggling to put together a full back line.
There are two weekends left of Premier League action, but that doesn't mean to bet on every match the rest of the way (or maybe you already do?). The matches are waning and it's best not to throw down more money than usual or you could easily go from green to red.
Record: 84-88-8. Up $224 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
The lone Saturday match is Liverpool and Chelsea in the FA Cup final. I think Liverpool have outplayed Chelsea in every matchup this season, but in three meetings, there hasn't been a winner. Because of that, I'd look at something like Chelsea double chance (-130) or draw no bet (+150). The absence of Fabinho is a blow for Liverpool and that will help a similarly depleted Chelsea midfield.
As for the Premier League, I'm going to Leicester +110 to beat Watford. It's the last home match of the season for Watford, but I'm not sure what that means if they put out the same starting XI as the Everton match. While they got a draw from that game, they didn't have a shot on target and conceded 13 corners. I think Leicester are a bit more clinical in front of net than Everton in addition to being a bit more open, not to mention they scored four goals in each of the two prior meetings this season. Leicester don't have anything to play for, but they don't want to end the season with a loss to one of the worst teams in the league playing a bunch of backups.
Outside of positioning in the table, neither Aston Villa nor Crystal Palace have anything to play for. Villa won the prior meeting 2-1 and Palace have been noticeably worse away from home. There's a chance this match is really open with nothing to play for, but Villa have contained weaker opponents under Steven Gerrard. No matter, Patrick Vieiera is tweaking his starting XI every match and I'm not sure that's helping them convert chances, which leads me to Villa at +105 to win, as I think they're the better team and they're playing at home.
Everton are playing not to lose and I don't think that strategy will change still two points above Burnley and Leeds. Frank Lampard has gone with a back five and that's led to just nine goals being scored in their last six matches. In their last six home matches, neither side has scored more than one goal and that includes games against Man City, Man United and Chelsea. Under 2.5 goals is -120 which seems like a steal and the route I'm leaning because 'No' on both teams to score (+105) will lose in a 1-1 result. Unless Brentford want this match to be up and down, I don't think there will be a ton of good chances, similar to Everton's scoreless draw against Watford.
I know Liverpool have bigger things on their mind, but that shouldn't matter against Southampton. There will be goals in this matchup unless Southampton really put the clamps on defensively, similar to last year's 1-0 win Jan. 4. However, I don't see that happening. The Saints have allowed multiple goals in each of their last four matches and have recent home losses against Man City and Chelsea in which they gave up a combined 10 goals. Liverpool matches have been disappointingly low scoring of late, but this matchup is a little different than those prior contests. Southampton have nothing to play for and it's hard to see them sitting back and going for a scoreless draw. That's why I'm going over 3.5 goals at +120. I think 'Both teams to score no draw' is also in play at +120, but I've lost that bet too many times when one team scores three or four and doesn't allow one.
