This article is part of our Best Bets series.
Last week's debut article for this series seemed to be quite a success, and I'm really happy with the positive reception so far. Granted, the picks went 4-2 for a $200 profit and that may contribute to the happiness but my betting tip for this week deals directly with this: sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. For every John Doe that pays off decades of debt with a 15-leg parlay, there are hundreds, even thousands of people still waiting for that one big score. Favorites lose, cold streaks hit the best teams, oddsmakers are smarter than you. These things happen. You, as a profitable sports investor, should be prepared for the highs and lows by exercising precise bankroll management and the patience of a saint. Now, on to the fun stuff!
Given that all of the leagues we love to watch around the world are getting into the swing of things, I will be changing things up and taking a 'world tour' approach: I will circle the major leagues and give my strongest money line and total bet for each league. If there is nothing to love, we will skip it, but I will give a little insight as to why exactly I am passing on the weekend's selections. Let me know if you like these changes by giving me a shout @0henne on Twitter.
Here we go:
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Moneyline - Swansea vs. Hull City: Swansea @ -130
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. (EDT)
Sure, if I listed the teams I am most confident will win, I would not be most confident in Swansea. However, I am confident enough to justify laying this amount of juice when compared to the high prices on Manchester United and Liverpool, to name two. Oddsmakers are clear: If you want to roll with the big names in this league, you better be willing to pay up. The price on Swansea is much more palatable and I do not see Hull posing a threat. Yes, we can look into their win over Leicester City all we want, but it's important to not overthink things. This is a weak team with organizational issues that is heading on the road to face a defensively solid unit.
Totals - West Ham United vs. AFC Bournemouth: Over 2.5 @ -120
Sunday, 11:00 a.m.
One thing we like to look for in sports betting is recent trends that paint a clear picture. As I noted in last week's article, West Ham soccer games going over the total is a pretty clear trend at this point, and until they show signs of changing their play or come up against a defensive-minded opponent, I am not fading this trend any time soon. The Cherries are certainly not that team, as the last five matches between these two have averaged 4.3 goals per game. More recently, both teams opened the season with losses that went over the total and West Ham, who have scored three goals in three of their last five, should see an opportunity to get in the win column this weekend.
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
I will be skipping Ligue 1 action this week (unless there is favorable line movement). Sure, there is a good chance that PSG will win. This will be the case most weeks, however, this is much different than just simply choosing a team to win. PSG are a -800 favorite (1.13 European) and that's just more money than I am ever willing to risk with the unpredictability in sport. Of the reasonably priced teams, Toulouse is in the best spot at home about Bordeaux, but I don't feel comfortable at their price either.
For totals, only PSG and Lyon have a total set at higher than 2.0 goals, with PSG set at 3.0. I'm not interested in those totals, and the only totals I like were unders, which means I am going to stay away from the two-goal totals which leave no margin of error. Again, I like the over in the Toulouse/Bordeaux match but the price is wrong. The best value present is Angers/Nice to go over 2 @ +115, but I am not confident enough to place a wager there.
SERIE A (ITALY)
Moneyline - Genoa vs. Cagliari: Genoa @ +100
Sunday 2:45 p.m.
Unlike Ligue 1, there is a lot of value to be had in Serie A at the moment, and Genoa getting even value is too good to pass up. This essentially means that oddsmakers are giving Genoa a 50 percent chance to win the match, but given a home opener against a recently promoted team we know much better. Fun fact that isn't entirely relevant: these two clubs have not drawn against each other since 2002. In more recent analysis, Cagliari were a decent road team in Serie B, but this is much stiffer competition as Genoa were a very good home team in the top league. Genoa has the edge here.
Totals - I will be taking a pass on totals in the Italian matches this week. I have leans on Roma (don't like the price) and Juventus (not confident enough), but will be sitting out.
LA LIGA (SPAIN)
Moneyline - Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid: Madrid @ -140
Sunday, 2:15 p.m
I really enjoy when good teams go on the road for a few reasons, chief among them being that their prices always come back down to manageable levels. Where Barcelona is too expensive to consider, Madrid gets a very palatable -140 tag in a visit to Sociedad. Even though they have had a successful club friendly schedule by most definitions, Sociedad have been owned by Madrid in recent history (a single home win in 14 years). We may not get these prices on Madrid again, so the traditional 'buy low, sell high' is the mantra in the beginning of club seasons.
Total - Atletico Madrid vs. Alaves: Under 2.5 @ -115
Sunday, 4:15 p.m
Alaves earned their promotion to the top league by playing a defense-first style of soccer, and this fits right into the game plan of Atletico. They are one of the best teams in Europe and almost seemingly never have the ball, which gives us a good price in a match they are expected to be in control of from start to finish. This is a club that is perfectly happy to win every match it plays 1-0, and though they are a class above Alaves, there is no reason for them to change the plan. Alaves played decently on the road in the second tier, however, the stat I love is that all of their road matches that hit the total were victories; the total went under in every road match they lost, the expected result here.
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)
Moneyline - New England vs. Columbus: New England @ -110
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
This is less of a ringing endorsement for New England as it is a pure fade of Columbus. The Crew have managed to take only three points from their road schedule this season. The have scored just seven goals away from home, and over their last five road games they are conceding just under three per game. New England are certainly not the toast of the league, in fact, they sit just above Columbus in the league table and are coming off a 4-0 home loss, but they are a solid enough team to take advantage of the shambles that Columbus bring on the road. Also, the Kei Kamara revenge game is a nice angle if you're into that sort of thing.
Total - Seattle vs. Portland: Under 2.5 @ -110
Sunday, 9:30 p.m.
Much like how I am going to keep playing West Ham overs until something changes, Portland on the road has been one of my go-to under plays this season. Starting to notice the pattern? Timbers are a perfect road team to pick on for unders because while they have a hard time scoring on the road, they aren't a particularly bad team. They sit sixth in the Western Conference, good enough to make the playoffs if the season ended today, and Seattle is languishing in ninth place; only Houston and San Jose have scored fewer goals. Look for Portland to lock it down on the road and grab a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
