This article is part of our Best Bets series.
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Manchester City team total Over 2.5 @ +150
I know, I know, this is the same City team that have managed just one goal in three of their past four games, but Crystal Palace are hemorrhaging goals at the moment and if there were any team I'd bet on to score three on any given day, here it is. City have actually (strangely) scored more goals on the road than they have at the Etihad this season and performed better as well (2.40 points per game on the road compared to 2.18 per game overall). Palace do most of their damage on the road as well; they sit in the bottom quarter of home teams and have most recently been thrashed by an equal-caliber Liverpool team and even managed to give up three goals to Burnley. Considering Burnley have scored three total goals since 1964, I like City to get it done with an offensive assault.
Watford @ +175
Off the top of your head, who is the absolute worst away team in the entire league? Hull? Sunderland? Swansea? Nope, defending champs Leicester are bottom in road points, with their draw at White Hart Lane two weeks ago being their only point away from home. Much was made of Watford's poor position in the table through the first few weeks but when the scheduling starts to even out, they rise again. Essentially, they are average at everything and doing what they need to do: scoring in their home matches (100 percent of them) and beating the teams they should beat. I see no issue with rebounding from the atrocity that was their 6-1 loss against Liverpool, who are a quality club ready to compete for the trophy, and Watford know what the goal is, so they shouldn't be consumed by sorrow. There is a juicy three points on offer this weekend and I expect them to take full advantage.
Diego Costa - Anytime Goal Scorer @ -105
Costa didn't suit up for a match against Macedonia?! Time to panic! Nah, Costa is expected to return this weekend for his matchup with Middlesbrough. He is already at nine goals this season, and Chelsea are looking for their seventh straight win at Riverside Stadium. I usually would never make a bet on a player to score at any worse than plus money, but come on, it's a lock, no?
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Rennes @ +115
If Rennes could play all of their matches at home, they might be the best team in French football. Of course all the talk (Is there talk? Do people talk about Ligue 1?) is about PSG and their results and what their players eat for breakfast, but Rennes have quietly moved to fifth in the table, and with a win this weekend would equal Nice as the best home team in the league. The difference is staggering: they score 1.67 goals per match at home compared to just one goal every two games on the road, and they earn a whopping 2.67 points per match as the hosts. Angers aren't as bad as I originally thought at the onset but while they have gained some results, wins over Lille and Bastia are nothing to get optimistic about. I don't see much to entangle Rennes here, best not to overthink this one.
Guingamp v. Bordeaux - BTTS = NO @ -120
This is not a knock on Bordeaux at all, in fact I really like them this season and think they're performing admirably with what they have to work with. However, just who is going to score against Guingamp? They love to grind out low-scoring games (five of their last seven contained only one total goal) and have conceded only twice as the home team. They concede a goal almost every three home games, but even if Bordeaux manage to find the net there is no guarantee Guingamp will be able to score. They aren't exactly attacking juggernauts themselves, and there is a very real chance of a 0-0 draw here.
Marseille -1 @ +125
One more Ligue 1 play as I just really love a lot of the props here. Caen are just so bad on the road I would be interested if the spread was five goals, but with Marseille expected to easily win this match and plus money being offered on the -1 line, it's too good to pass up. If Marseille only win by a goal we get our refund, but honestly, I have seen Caen try to go into opposing stadiums and play this sport, and let me tell you, it isn't pretty. Pick any stat you want and it favors Marseille, but let's just focus on the fact that Caen have earned one measly point on the road while Marseille have kept a clean sheet in five of their six home matches. Good luck.
LA LIGA (SPAIN)
Atletico Madrid v. Real Madrid Over 2.5 @ -105
I am just absolutely in love with this bet and this price. It may be going down little by little every day, but I would pay up for this one. Real Madrid hits the over 2.5 goals at a 73 percent pace, and that goes up to a ridiculous 80 percent when they have to travel. Good news, as "the other" Madrid see an average of 4.4 total goals in their home matches. That is certainly skewed by massive blowout wins over Sporting Gijon and Granada, as well as their last match against Malaga (the three worst road teams in La Liga) but that doesn't take away from the fact that they have scored in every home match this season and are generally playing some pretty impressive football. This should be exciting, beautiful to watch, and hard to keep track of all the goals.
Osasuna pk @ +210
Nobody remembers how I basically predicted every step of the MLS playoffs so far, yet somehow everyone remembers and is laughing at my prediction that Leganes will be slightly respectable this season. Well that's gone completely out the window and now it's pretty fun (and profitable!) to bet against them. I'm not really sure why the odds are stacked up against Osasuna so much in this one; yes they are also bad, but they aren't quite at Leganes' level of futility just yet. Obviously they have won just once all season, but this could be the remedy; Leganes have allowed 12 goals in their last four games (all losses) and there is almost no way they pull out a win here. This is a very safe bet because the draw will refund, but if Osasuna can buck the trend and get the win then we are in for a very nice payday. Don't be shy about the ugly matchup, some of the least appealing games on paper have the best options to bet on. Just ask me about how much money I'll have in play for the Hull/Sunderland highlight reel waiting to happen!
