Sweeping the Floor: Are Fulham and Brighton Really That Bad?

The short answer to the article title is "yes," but I've never been one for short answers, so let's dive in.

I've always been very interested in statistics, and they play a major part of my DFS research, but I constantly try to find holes in what I find to see if what the numbers tell me is actually helpful. Part of my weekly analyses for upcoming Premier League slates on DraftKings is looking at floor points (fantasy points minus goals, assists and clean sheets) scored, and conceded, to see if there are certain teams worth targeting or avoiding that the betting odds may say otherwise. We can always look at fantasy points allowed over the course of the season or the past four or six weeks, but the issue I've always had is that it doesn't really account for the strength of opponents. How much can you read into a team giving up loads of fantasy points if they've played Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool in their first few matches versus a team that looks tight defensively but has played Burnley, Cardiff and Brighton?

Manchester City are unsurprisingly the top fantasy-scoring team in the league, and they have the most floor points, leading the league in goals, assists, shots and shots on goal while sitting fifth in crosses. Close behind, at least in floor points, are Everton, who have sent in the third-most crosses but also lead the league in fouls drawn by a margin of 12 over Bournemouth, who haven't done much else and have the fourth-fewest floor points through 12 matches. But the really surprising team may be Huddersfield, who have bagged a league-low five goals, and are 19th in the table, but have scored the sixth-most floor points thanks to their league-leading 159 tackles won and third-most 264 crosses. Having fallen behind in so many matches, it's no wonder their cross numbers are high, but their defensive work is what has helped Aaron Mooy (11th), Philip Billing (17) and Chris Lowe (21) all reach the top-21 in floor points scored this season, the only team with three representatives in the top 20 (Everton have two: Gylfi Sigurdsson and Lucas Digne, Crystal Palace have two: Luka Milivojevic and Andros Townsend, and Chelsea have two: Eden Hazard and Willian). And while they've conceded the fourth-most goals in the league, Huddersfield have given up only the seventh-fewest floor points, as they seem to allow a goal and then keep the ball enough to limit opponents' fantasy points while piling on their own.

On the opposite end of the spectrum are Brighton, who have not only scored the fewest overall fantasy points and floor points, but they've also conceded the third-most overall fantasy points and most floor points. Only Burnley have allowed more shots while no team has allowed more crosses or fouls to be won. We've harped on Fulham's defensive vulnerabilities, but Brighton have surpassed them of late as the best team to target.

However, what if it's not Brighton's fault? Are they actually poor defensively (at least in terms of allowing fantasy points) or have they just had a very difficult opening set of opponents? Looking at Brighton's 12 matches, their opponent list hasn't helped, and that doesn't include that they've played seven of those 12 away from home. Granted, they haven't played tough opponents every match, but the schedule-maker did them no favors by giving him Manchester United (home), Liverpool (away), Tottenham (home) and Manchester City (away) in their first seven fixtures. Those teams rank 10th, eighth, 13th and first in floor points scored this season, respectively, while Brighton have also faced Everton (second), Southampton (fifth), Watford (ninth) and Wolverhampton (seventh), which means they've faced six of the top-10 teams with the most floor points, while their upcoming fixtures are against Leicester (third) and Huddersfield (seventh).

So, are Brighton really that bad in terms of fantasy points allowed? Well...yes. Giving up loads of fantasy points to Manchester City, Liverpool and Everton is one thing, but Brighton have also allowed big games (at least relatively big) to Cardiff City (sixth-fewest floor points this season) and Newcastle (fifth-fewest), and many of the teams that score lots of fantasy points actually scored more against Brighton than they average against everyone else. As the table below will show, teams score an average of 13.9 more floor points per game against Brighton than they do when they face other opponents, the highest difference in the league, with Fulham close behind at 13.5. Additionally, you can see the gap those two teams have, as the third-highest is Newcastle at 6.8. On the other side, Manchester City are the worst team to play (shocking, I know), as teams are scoring a whopping 15.2 fewer floor points against the league-leaders than against everyone else, with Chelsea next at 10.4.

A quick explanation on the tables below: starting at the left-most column, you can see how many floor points a team has scored against each opponent they have faced. For example, Arsenal allowed 52.8 floor points to Cardiff City, 61.8 to Chelsea, 58.3 to Crystal Palace, and so on. Or, if you prefer to see how many fantasy points a team has scored against each opponent, go down each column, where you'll see Arsenal scored 61.8 floor points against Cardiff, 49.5 against Chelsea, 35.65 against Crystal Palace, etc. The color formatting takes into account all games, so the darkest greens are the matches with the most floor points scored while the darkest reds are the fewest.

Using that data, I calculated the difference between the floor points scored against each opponent and their average floor points scored against everyone else. For example, Arsenal have scored 599.3 floor points over 12 matches, averaging 49.9 per match. However, they scored 61.8 against Cardiff City, which means they scored 537.5 floor points in their other 11 matches, an average of 48.9 per game. That figure indicates that Arsenal scored 12.9 more floor points against Cardiff than their average in their 11 other matches. Doing that for each match and for each team this season, we can see that teams playing Cardiff usually score four fewer floor points than their average against everyone else, as seen in the column second from the right (you may have to scroll over, which is why I included the team names on both sides). Cardiff are actually an interesting case, as they've allowed the joint-second-most goals this season, and subsequently the fifth-most overall fantasy points, but they've conceded the fifth-fewest floor points.

It's worth pointing out there are plenty of variables that can greatly affect fantasy points in a match. For example, the highest team floor total this season is when Newcastle scored 84.3 at home against Brighton, who went ahead in the 29th minute and subsequently bunkered down, allowing Newcastle to take 27 shots, send in 41 crosses and draw 16 fouls. Early deficits can also be accentuated by red cards, as we saw when Leicester scored 74.3 fantasy points against West Ham, who went ahead in the 30th minute but then went down to 10 men in the 38th, allowing Leicester to eventually take 21 shots and send in 45 crosses (this was the Marc Albrighton 24-cross game). Outliers will always exist, but examining the full schedule and adjusting our season-long statistical perspectives based on matches is always a healthy exercise, even if it simply reaffirms what we already know: Brighton and Fulham are terrible.