Homestead-Miami Speedway produced another thrilling race, further defining what will be the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship race, as the eight playoff contenders battled tooth and nail throughout the race's 400 miles. Tyler Reddick led 97 laps, pulling off a late-stop strategy that gave him the fresh grip he needed to move from third to first in the final lap of the race to win for the third time this season, securing his spot as a championship finalist. The playoff drivers made the afternoon a great show as they battled each other for supremacy, filling out the top six finishing positions. Six of those eight playoff contenders also led at some point in the afternoon. While many of them had top finishes, Reddick's victory leaves the others (besides Joey Logano) in a less than comfortable position for the coming week's trip to Martinsville.
With Reddick and Logano locked into the championship fight at Phoenix, two championship slots are left to be decided in the coming days at Martinsville. Christopher Bell and William Byron will enter the race weekend in those transfer spots, but Kyle Larson lurks just seven points adrift. Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott sit even further behind. Byron won at the short track earlier this season, but fantasy players should expect another close-fought battle like we saw at Homestead as the remaining six championship hopefuls duke it out to ensure they remain standing after 500 stressful trips around Martinsville's flat oval.
UPGRADE
Tyler Reddick - The Homestead race weekend was a perfect one for Reddick. First, he qualified on pole, then jumped straight to the lead to win the first stage. In all, he led 97 laps, pulling off a convincing last-lap pass that earned him a chance to race for the season's biggest prize at Phoenix. The team now has the benefit of using the coming week's race at Martinsville to ensure they have everything buttoned up for that championship race, too. That is good news because that short track has not been one of Reddick's best. He has just two top-10 finishes there from nine series starts. His best finish was from earlier this season when he finished seventh, too. Reddick has never led at the track either. It may be difficult to keep the momentum from last week's win flowing, but all of the team's focus will be on preparing for the trip to Phoenix in two weeks.
Ryan Blaney - Despite qualifying on the 10th row, Blaney had a very quick car in Sunday's race. He swiftly clawed his way forward and proceeded to run inside the top 10 all day, scoring stage points in both stages, and had the lead on the final lap before getting passed in the final turn. Despite Sunday's speed and runner-up finish, Blaney finds himself in a very precarious position with one race remaining before the championship finale. Somehow, Blaney will have to overcome a 38-point deficit to the top four positions, which means his only hope of keeping his championship effort alive is to go out and win at Martinsville. The speed he showed Sunday at Miami shows not to count him out, though. Last year Blaney did just that, leading 145 laps last fall to win his way into the finale at Phoenix, where he won the championship.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin won the second stage and scored his second top-five finish of the playoffs Sunday. It was his 11th of the season, and it marked a step forward for the playoff contender. While the increased performance is welcome, it comes on the cusp of being too late. Hamlin is 18-points outside of the championship spots in the playoffs with just one race remaining to earn his way into the championship race. That one race happens to be at Martinsville, though. Hamlin is a five-time winner there and boasts an incredible average finish of 8.8 from 37 career starts. However, he hasn't won a race there since 2015. He finished 11th in the spring race and will likely need something significantly better than that this coming week to make it into the final four. Hamlin's step up last week could be him peaking at the perfect moment, though.
Christopher Bell - Bell wasn't one of the major headlines Sunday, but his consistent top-five finishes have him in enviable position with one race remaining before Phoenix. He spent the entire weekend at Homestead running in the top five, picking up stage points, and padding his position as best in the points. If he can do that just one more week at Martinsville, he will be one of the four championship finalists. Bell has a 22-point margin over William Byron, which is a comfortable cushion to maintain for just one more race. Fantasy players can expect Bell's positive momentum to continue in the coming week, too. He won at Martinsville in 2022 and was seventh last fall. He only finished 35th there earlier this season when tire trouble ruined his afternoon, but a good points day should be all he needs to make another final four appearance, though.
William Byron - Byron's sixth-place Homestead finish was his fifth top-10 finish in a row. While it wasn't as much as he and the team were hoping for, it still leaves them in the championship positions with just one more race to navigate. With Reddick's victory, there is little room for error, though. Byron sits just seven points ahead of teammate Kyle Larson in fifth, and the potential of a new playoff winner this week at Martinsville makes his standing even more uneasy. However, there haven't been many drivers much better than Byron recently. He came from the 25th starting spot to grab Sunday's top-10, and he knows which competitors he will have to beat this week at Martinsville to advance. Byron is also a two-time Martinsville winner. No driver has swept victories at the same track yet this season, but Byron will be hoping he changes that trend to advance to the championship decider in style.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Larson - An early flat tire Sunday left Larson in a stressful position for the coming week at Martinsville. Sunday's issue brought out a caution in the first stage, and forced Larson's team to make repairs to keep the car from losing too much ground the remainder of the race. Despite a late spin while racing for the lead, those efforts still paid off with a 13th-place finish, but the lack of points from the afternoon's stages leaves Larson outside of the top four with just Martinsville to force his way back into the picture. Only seven points separate him from teammate William Byron in fourth, but Christopher Bell is ahead of both drivers and there is only room for two. Larson is a former winner at Martinsville, and he finished second there in the spring race. With the points margin as tight as it is, Larson and team must execute flawlessly this coming week.
Chase Elliott - After several top finishes, Elliott finally showed the extra edge that made him look like a potential race winner Sunday afternoon. He led 81 total laps, which was second only to the winner. Unfortunately, that edge came up short with another fifth-place finish, and it leaves Elliott last among the eight remaining championship hopefuls. His 43-point deficit to teammate Byron in fourth means that Elliott will need to win the coming race at Martinsville to earn a chance to win a second series title. Pulling off a clutch victory like that isn't unheard of, though. It could be within reach of this team, too. Elliott won at the flat track in the fall of 2020 and he finished third there earlier this season. The No. 9 team still has hope and a realistic chance of elbowing their way into the championship race, and their mission is very clear this week.
Ty Gibbs - The difficult end to the season continued for Gibbs. The former playoff contender qualified inside the top 15 but failed to stay there. He missed stage points in both segments before a gearbox problem and collision hampered his afternoon even more. The day's 36th-place finish was his third finish of 30th or worse from the last three races and he still only has one top-10 finish in the playoffs. Despite being one of the 16 playoff contenders in 2024, Gibbs and team are still winless from nearly two full seasons in the series. While there are still two races to make that victory a reality, it feels like work toward an improved 2025 effort are already the focus. Fantasy players will likely expected that muted run to continue at Martinsville, too. Gibbs has an average finish of 18.5 from four series races at the track with two finishes each of 18th and 19th.
Joey Logano - Last week's visit to Homestead wasn't a week Logano needed to score a top result. Having already secured his spot in the finale at Phoenix, Logano and team were free to focus on honing their equipment and strategies for that race. However, the loss of momentum with a disappointing weekend is more difficult to quantify. First, Logano qualified just 26th. The team then changed the car's steering and started at the rear of the field for doing so. During the race, Logano was never a factor and finished the day in 28th position. While we don't know what the team learned or what exactly they hoped to get out of the weekend, the anonymous afternoon makes it difficult to gauge what they'll be capable of at both Martinsville and Phoenix. With one more week for the team to focus on their championship preparation, it might be wise for fantasy players to avoid selecting him again before the championship race.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Carson Hocevar - Hocevar continued to capitalize on his opportunities Sunday at Homestead. The Spire Motorsports driver qualified 15th for Sunday's race and quickly established himself as a top-10 contender. He scored stage points in both segments and went on to finish ninth for his sixth top-10 finish of the season and his fourth top-15 finish since the playoffs began. One could say they expected a better-than-average finish from him at Homestead since he won the CRAFTSMAN Truck Series race there last season, but Hocevar has delivered marked improvement in finishes in the second half of this season. It would be reasonable for fantasy players to expect that top-15 trend to continue, too. Hocevar's best Cup Series finish at Martinsville was 25th in April, but he did score three top-10s from four races there in the trucks, though.
