This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Christopher Bell had one of the fastest cars throughout Sunday's USA TODAY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway regardless of the conditions. He started fourth and went on to lead 149 of 305 laps, rain or shine, to win his third race of the season. Initially, the race looked set to play out like a typical stop at New Hampshire, but rain halted the proceedings and threatened to end the day prematurely. After the weather moved through, NASCAR made quick work of drying the track to a point where the grooved wet weather tires could be put on the cars for the final run to the finish. The damp track only served to spice up the action with drivers going everywhere on the track to find the quickest line around the course. Bell's shift to the high line paid dividends as he immediately jumped to the front and held a relatively comfortable margin over the rest of the field throughout the final restarts to claim victory in an exciting scramble to the finish.
The regular season continues its march toward conclusion this week at Nashville Speedway. With Bell's victory last week, six spots remain for first time winners this season to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Eight races remain for those spots to be clinched and pressure continues to build. Joey Logano sits in the 16th and final playoff position in the standings with Bubba Wallace just 13 points adrift. Chevrolet-powered drivers have won all three NASCAR Cup Series races at Nashville with Ross Chastain taking the win last season, and he is one of several drivers still seeking a playoff spot via a 2024 victory.
UPGRADE
Christopher Bell - Bell made his first pass for the lead Sunday at New Hampshire after 40 laps and then stretched his legs on the way to his seventh stage win of the season. That was just the beginning for him, too. Bell went on to finish fourth in the second stage and powered to the front again after racing resumed on a damp track following a stoppage for rain. His dirt track experience paid dividends as he quickly found the best line in mixed conditions, comfortably holding the lead through the final stops and restarts to claim his third race victory of the season. It was his fifth consecutive finish of ninth or better as he builds momentum in the final races of the regular season. Bell has also been exceptional at Nashville. He has three top-10s from three series starts despite starting twice from outside of the top 20.
Kyle Larson - Like Bell, Larson sprang to a new level once racing resumed on a wet track. Larson had been competitive prior to the rain, but his impact in the early miles was stunted by only qualifying 19th. Larson made his way to the top 10 in the second stage, and that set the table for his surge once racing resumed. The tricky conditions played to Larson's strengths, and he was one of the first drivers to use the apron to make a fast lap time. He was eventually forced to move up the track, but by then he was already in the top five. The day ended with a fourth-place finish, which was his eighth top-five finish of the season. He and the team continue to hone their package for the playoffs and are finding success in adverse situations. They will learn from that adversity and hope to be stronger in the championship fight as a result.
Chase Briscoe - The news about Briscoe last week started off of the track when Christopher Bell seemingly let the cat out of the bag when he referenced Briscoe as a future teammate following the retirement of Martin Truex Jr. Briscoe made sure the rumors about his future weren't the only talking point, though. He qualified just 23rd but took advantage of the wet track to barge forward. By the finish, Briscoe was second despite missing stage points in both opening segments. The result was just his second top-five of the season and leaves him 18th in the standings, 25 points out of the playoff positions. If the news is true, Briscoe should be looking forward to 2025. He will want to ensure he helps Stewart-Haas Racing leave the series on a high note, though. More races like Sunday's will certainly help, but Nashville may still be a challenge. Briscoe's average finish there from three starts is 32.0.
Martin Truex Jr. - Despite a good start to the afternoon, Truex's race suffered a blow in the final stage. Trouble on pit road caused him to lose all of his track position, and then contact with Brad Keselowski in the traffic afterward caused him to crash. The No. 19 had been a top-five car prior to the issues, and luckily that speed didn't completely go away. The team mounted a comeback and Truex clawed his way back into the top 10 for the finish. It was his eighth top-10 finish of the season and he remains the highest-placed driver in points without a 2024 win. Truex has one top-five from three Nashville starts, and he was the runner-up finisher in last years race. He led a combined 132 laps in the last two races at the track and needs a little more luck to get things moving in the right direction to keep him championship hopes alive in his final full-time season.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin won his fourth stage of the season by taking the second segment Sunday at New Hampshire. The championship contender worked his way to the front after starting 14th, but he wasn't able to maintain that strength to the finish. The stage win marked the last lap that he led in the race, and once racing resumed following the rain, he struggled to maintain position and fell backward. Despite his early pace, Hamlin finished 24th. It was Hamlin's third finish outside of the top 20 in the last three races, but the bonus point for the stage win can still be impactful as that will carry through into the playoffs to help ensure he makes it all the way to Phoenix. Hamlin has two top-10s and one top-five from the three Nashville races thus far. His best result came last season in a third place finish, and he led 195 total laps in the last two races at the track.
DOWNGRADE
Alex Bowman - Late in the second stage, Bowman's day came undone. The car suffered an engine issue, keeping him on pit road while the crew assessed the problem. The mechanical trouble was especially painful because Bowman had been running among the top 10 until the issue struck. It was the second week in a row that the No. 48 suffered from problems and it causes them to lose ground in the standings. Their prospects of turning things around don't seem good either. Bowman has not finished inside the top 10 at Nashville yet, and only one of those tries even resulted in a top-15. Bowman's best finish in the series at Nashville was 14th in 2021 and his average finish is just 22.3. With three finishes from the last five races being outside of the top 30, the No. 48 team needs to stop their slide as quickly as possible to salvage their playoff hopes.
Kyle Busch - Another driver watching the season slip away is Kyle Busch. The afternoon looked terrible after he fell two laps down, but then contact in in the second stage made the situation even worse. His crash with Noah Gragson resulted in his fourth finish from the last five races outside of the top 20 and his day only got progressively worse with several additional incidents after that. Busch already had fallen out of the playoff positions prior to Sunday's trip to New Hampshire, but the lack of any production from the race dug that hole even deeper. He led laps in all three series races at the circuit, but his best finish came last season with a ninth-place result. He has won several times there in different equipment, though. Things might get a bit better for him this week with that kind of track knowledge, but fantasy players may still want to stay away until his fortunes in the Cup Series start to show a positive turnaround.
Joey Logano - Contact with Chase Elliott at the start of the final stage ruined the good afternoon Logano was building. The issue came when the No. 22 washed up the track and clouted the No. 9. Logano initially accumulated one of the highest tallies of stage points, but his whole afternoon came undone on that restart. The team did well to make quick work on pit road and initially kept Logano on the lead lap, but multiple trips for repairs were required and their best efforts couldn't overcome the damage that was done. The No. 22 struggled through the remainder of the race and fell through the field to finish 32nd. It was his his second finish outside of the top 20 in the last three races, but Sunday's stage points were enough to stay among the playoff contenders in the championship standings. Logano has two top-10s from the three Nashville races to date.
Bubba Wallace - One of the biggest stumbles at New Hampshire was Wallace. After scoring two top-10s at the track in the last two races, Wallace was poised to take another step toward consolidating a spot in the playoffs. However, he failed to score stage points after qualifying 17th and exited the race early due to a crash in the final stage. He collected just three points for the work and slipped out of the top 16 in the standings. Wallace now faces an even more stressful stretch of summer races needing to make up points and hope no new race winners take playoff spots or win a race himself. Wallace finished in the top 15 just once since the All-Star Race and needs to overcome a 13-point deficit to Logano to get back into the playoff positions. He faces a significant task in doing so and has an average finish of 15.7 from his three Nashville starts.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Sunday's seventh-place finish was the second top-10 in a row for Stenhouse. The finish was his best at New Hampshire and his first top-10 there since 2016, and it wasn't just the uncertain conditions that caused his outsized performance. Stenhouse qualified 13th, missed stage points, but collected thirty points to help his cause in the standings. While his early-season problems mean he is still facing a must-win situation to be part of the playoffs, his back-to-back top finishes demonstrate he and the team are overcoming those struggles. Stenhouse finished sixth in the first series race at Nashville but did not qualify in the top 20 in the last two races at the track. His upswing in results is good news for fantasy players but his Nashville qualifying effort could be a big determinant of his chances of continuing that run.
