Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

The Mississippi native has fallen into a bit of a predictable rut the last three seasons. Stenhouse has averaged about three Top 10's and a 23rd-place slot in the driver points for the last three years. While he improved his average finish slightly in 2021 (19.7), the Top 10 totals failed to impress and he finished 22nd-place in the final standings. The big news at JTG Daugherty Racing during the off-season is the reduction from two to one race team as Ryan Preece and the No. 37 Chevrolet are now no more. The change could be good for Stenhouse as he'll receive all the support and attention this race team can muster. There are no changes to the crew chief or team lineup, so chemistry should continue to improve. The lone x-factor would seem to be how quickly Stenhouse adapts to the new Next-Gen race car. From most feedback it's more difficult to drive and that favors veteran drivers like Stenhouse.

The 33-year-old veteran has fallen into a bit of a rut the last couple seasons, and is now posting similar stat lines that slot him in the middle portion of the driver standings. Stenhouse notched just four Top 10s in all of 2020 and finished 24th in the driver point standings. These were remarkably similar marks to his 2019 campaign and a sign that Stenhouse has stalled in terms of performance. The move to JTG Daugherty Racing has failed to yield the fruits that this driver posted in his career-best Cup Series campaign of 2017 at Roush Fenway Racing. He now enters a contract year at the No. 47 Chevrolet team. Stenhouse will again be paired with crew chief, Brian Pattie, and the two will look to figure out a way out of this malaise. He will be racing for his job in 2021, but will face major hurdles to get back where Stenhouse was just three seasons ago.

Stenhouse has been on a two-season slide after posting his career-best Cup Series campaign in 2017. The slump cost this veteran driver his job at Roush Fenway Racing, so now he moves to JTG Daugherty Racing this season. Crew chief Brian Pattie also makes the move with Stenhouse to the No. 47 Chevrolet team. This familiar face should help in the transition. Pattie guided Stenhouse to that two victory, nine Top-10 finish campaign back in 2017. However, they do come to a team of fewer resources than the No. 17 RFR Ford so we have to be a bit reserved about the potential for the upcoming season. Stenhouse and Pattie need a fresh start, but it could take them some time to find their way with this new race team. We have a very cautious and reserved outlook for Stenhouse in 2020.

Stenhouse took some steps back last season after his career-best 2017 campaign. He registered just five Top-10 finishes during the year, and finished 18th in the final driver standings. The six-season veteran failed to make the Chase field, and failed to crack the win column after picking up two victories in 2017. Still, Stenhouse was pretty fast and reliable on the superspeedways. That's has been this team and driver's biggest strength the last few seasons. Two of Stenhouse's three Top-5 finishes last year came in both Talladega races. However, we saw the 31-year-old driver take some steps back on intermediate and larger ovals. The good news is that the team is the point car for the Roush organization and sponsorship and contracts look good for the foreseeable future. Brian Pattie returns at crew chief, and he and Stenhouse will look to regain some of their lost 2017 swagger.

Last year was a career season for the driver of the No. 17 Ford. Stenhouse nabbed a couple victories on the superspeedway circuit and posted nine total Top-10 finishes. It all led to a career-best 13th-place mark in the final driver standings. The entire No. 17 team and crew chief Brian Pattie return in 2018. It's taken five seasons to turn around this floundering race team, but Roush and Stenhouse have finally started to make some headway. We don't expect any quantum leaps for this driver and team, but another campaign of steady improvements and consistency. Another berth in the Chase for the Cup would be dependent on winning a race. Stenhouse has proven to be a dangerous driver on the superspeedways, so we wouldn't rule out a playoff seeding win.

With the departure of Greg Biffle, Stenhouse now finds himself the elder statesman of this now two-team stable at Roush Fenway Racing. The trend line for this camp hasn't been good, but at least they have some youth to point to in the driving department. Stenhouse is a two-time Xfinity Series champion, but he's yet to make his mark on NASCAR's top division. Now entering his fifth full-time season of competition in the Monster Energy Cup Series, the pressure to perform will be squarely on Stenhouse's shoulders. He posted career-best marks in Top 5s and Top 10s last season with four and six respectively. However, his 21st-place finish in the driver standings is what is most concerning. Unless some major things change in the No. 17 Ford camp, a berth in the Chase is a slim possibility this season.

As we enter season four of the Stenhouse era at Roush Fenway Racing, the young driver comes to a crossroads in his Sprint Cup Series career. Rather than improvement, we've seen some fairly consistent performance marks from the driver of the No. 17 Ford through his first three seasons in NASCAR's top division. Last year he only collected three top-10 finishes and ended up a lowly 25th in the driver standings after Homestead. Those are marks comparable to previous years. The time to improve is now, and the burden is on Roush to give Stenhouse better cars and better guidance. Nick Sandler returns as crew chief for this driver and team in 2016, but both Sandler and Stenhouse will be on the hot seat if they turn in another lackluster performance this season. This is a contract year for the young driver so we believe they'll be some improvement, but not tremendous by any measure.

1. The two-time reigning Nationwide Series champion will take on his first full season of racing in the Sprint Cup Series. Stenhouse takes over the famous No. 17 Ford for the departed Matt Kenseth and he has some pretty big shoes to fill right off. The young driver is not completely unacquainted with the Cup car. Stenhouse made five starts in NASCAR’s top division over the last two years. He’ll use that experience to his full advantage in 2013. When we look back in history and Roush Fenway Racing rookies we’re reminded of David Ragan. The comparisons between him and Stenhouse are striking. In fact, we think their rookie campaigns could be just as similar. Lots of lessons learned and around 7-9 Top-10 finishes for the ROTY candidate.