Cook Out 400 Preview: Short Track Survival

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The NASCAR Cup Series continues their short track schedule this week as the series pulls into the small town of Martinsville, Virginia for the Cook Out 400. This Martinsville event marks the second short track event in consecutive races. NASCAR shortened this race a few seasons ago from 500 to 400 laps and now uses stages of 80/100/220 laps. Martinsville Speedway is very flat track with only 12 degrees of banking in the turns and is truly flat on the long straight-aways. A couple weeks ago we witnessed tire preservation/fall off and issues with tire wear at Bristol. Will we see a similar game played at the Martinsville oval? To a certain extent yes, but likely not as dramatic as the Bristol race. Brake preservation is the name of the game in Martinsville, because you essentially have two long drag strips with hairpin corners on either end. The oval looks very much like a paperclip when viewed from above, thus the nickname "the paperclip" has taken hold over the years. Taking care of your brakes for the full 400 laps becomes as important as passing on this tricky short track.

Like any bull ring in the Cup Series, not only is equipment preservation important but getting and maintaining good track position is of the utmost importance. If you get stuck in the back of the field here, you can find yourself a lap down in a matter of minutes from the start or any restart, so teams must place high priority on getting and keeping good track position. You won't be able to race your way through traffic and back toward the front as easily here as some other small ovals. Track position will become so important over the course of the race that you will see teams chose either not to pit certain cautions, or to take on two tires in order to grab valuable track position on pit road. All these factors make any Martinsville race a battle of survival and often times the best equipment preservation and pit strategy wins.

Since Martinsville Speedway is like no other track on the NASCAR Cup circuit, we'll have to pay close attention to the loop stats this week. Recent historical statistics at Martinsville will be one of the biggest considerations in our weekly projections. Hot streaks go out the window to a certain extent when we visit this facility, so it's these recent numbers that require close scrutiny. The loop stats in the table below span the last 19 years or 38 races at Martinsville Speedway. 

In this event one year ago we saw Kyle Larson rise late and take the lead from Joey Logano after the final caution of the day. He would cruise the final 30 laps and take his first-career win at Martinsville Speedway by over 4-seconds that afternoon. That performance was right on the normal trend here in recent seasons. We've typically seen most Martinsville winners rise late in this event and overcome a more dominant driver in the closing laps. This phenomenon is due in part to pit strategy and also car preservation, saving something for the end. We'll see if this trend and phenomena hold up Sunday in the Cook Out 400.  

When the NASCAR Cup Series returned to Martinsville Speedway last fall, it would be Ryan Blaney sweeping into victory lane for the first time at the historic short track and foiling Aric Almirola for the victory by nine-tenths of a second. Denny Hamlin would dominate most of that race with 156 laps led, but would eventually fade to third-place by the checkered flag. We'll take a look at the recent Martinsville stats as well as current short track trends and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues at Martinsville Speedway in the Cook Out 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – No other driver has as much knowledge and success at Martinsville Speedway as does Hamlin. His five-career Martinsville victories, 19 Top 5's and close to 2,400 laps led lead all active drivers at this facility. In his last start at the Virginia short track last October, the Joe Gibbs Racing star led 156 laps and finished third-place. That only bolstered his career Top-5 rate here to an amazing 53-percent. Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team are on fire coming to Southern Virginia this week. Coming off the big wins at both Bristol and Richmond this veteran driver and team are locked in right now. A possible sixth Martinsville win and grandfather clock trophy await the clear odds-on favorite.  

Kyle Larson – Larson won the pole and led a lot of laps at Richmond Raceway this past Sunday, but a late spin and caution would take Larson's chances to win down the drain. He'll look to rebound at Martinsville Speedway this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event last season and he won the pole and finished runner-up here in October of 2022. Larson has overcome a lot of his early-career struggles at this track with his performances in recent seasons. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has led 181 laps and accrued an impressive 8.0 average finish at the Martinsville short track since 2019. Larson represents Chevrolet's best threat to win and upset Toyota in the Cook Out 400 this Sunday afternoon.

Martin Truex Jr. – The three-time Martinsville Speedway winner has been a top performer at the track since 2015 after his big move to Furniture Row Racing. Truex was just minutes away from winning at Richmond Raceway this past weekend before a late caution and race flow would force overtime and take him out of contention. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota will look to rebound to victory lane at Martinsville Speedway. In addition to Truex's three wins he also has 10 Top-5 finishes at the paper clip. One of those came in this event one year ago when Truex lined up fifth on the starting grid and raced to an impressive third-place finish in the NOCO 400. This driver and team are not to be underestimated in the Cook Out 400.

Christopher Bell – Bell is off to a good start this season on the short tracks. He won to kick the campaign off in Phoenix a few weeks ago and he's since collected 10th- and sixth-place finishes at Bristol and Richmond. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is a one-time Martinsville winner (2022) and he finished a respectable seventh-place at the half-mile oval last October. Bell's Cup Series career has been brief and his accomplishments at Martinsville Speedway have been few, but he's just beginning to etch out what appears to be a fantastic career of short track racing in the making. Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team will be a factor in this 400-lap Martinsville battle.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been a model of consistency so far on the bull rings in 2024. Keselowski grabbed fourth-, third- and eighth-place finishes so far at Phoenix, Bristol and Richmond. The average finish works out to an eye-popping 5.0. Although he's led just 1 lap across those three events, the veteran driver has been a fixture among the Top 5. Keselowski brings that momentum to Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the Cook Out 500. He is a two-time Martinsville winner and his 17 Top-10 finishes pull down a strong 61-percent Top-10 rate. His last three trips to Southern Virginia have not been very good, but we're willing to bet he breaks that cycle this Sunday afternoon.    

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has been quite impressive this season and his short track efforts have been on point. The young driver scored an impressive third-place at Phoenix and more recently a ninth-place at Bristol. Gibbs was on the cusp of a Top 10 at Richmond this past week, but the late caution and full-field pit stops prior to overtime would not play to his favor and Gibbs would end up 16th-place. Martinsville Speedway should be another opportunity for him to shine. His three prior Cup Series starts at the flat half-mile oval have all been Top-20 efforts, but nothing spectacular thus far. This weekend's Cook Out 400 is ripe for Gibbs to impress. We could see laps led, possible stage wins and likely his first-career Top-10 finish at the Martinsville short track.

Chris Buescher – With finishes of second-, seventh- and ninth-place at Phoenix, Bristol and Richmond, Buescher has been razor sharp. He's led just 17 laps in those events but he's posted a brilliant 6.0 average finish. We should expect more of the same from the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran at Martinsville. Buescher owns just two-career Top 10's at Martinsville Speedway, but they've both come since the 2021 season. His last start at the half-mile oval paid off with a steady eighth-place finish in last October's Xfinity 500. Buescher is not a major threat to win this race, but he has the goods to run up front and stay on the lead lap. That should be good enough to place the No. 17 Ford within the Top 10 at the end of the afternoon this Sunday.         

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing ace has become a pretty dominant force at the Martinsville short track since 2014. His last 10 seasons of racing at Martinsville has yielded well over 1,000 laps led, one victory, two runner-up finishes, 10 Top-5 and 16 Top-10 finishes. Logano rides a nine-race Martinsville Top-10 streak with over 250 laps led coming into this weekend's action. The driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang is coming off a rebound second-place performance at Richmond this past week. That's significant because Logano has struggled to this point in 2024 on the short tracks. We're confident Logano will race with the leaders and challenge the Top 5 in Sunday's 400-lap Martinsville Speedway battle. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has had some struggles on the short tracks thus far, so we've moved him to the sleepers list this week. He'll hope to reverse his fortunes at a short track where he's been very successful. He's grabbed one win, two runner-up finishes and rides a four-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into this weekend. Those performances have lowered his career average finish at the facility to a strong 9.0. Blaney finished seventh-place in this event one year ago and he returned last fall to capture his first Martinsville win in the Xfinity 500. The Penske Racing star's current short track struggles are a bit concerning, but Martinsville is a different animal and will likely spur a rebound performance for the No. 12 Ford team.  

Chase Elliott – Elliott's slow start finally showed a glimmer of hope at Richmond this past week. He piloted the No. 9 Chevrolet to a strong fifth-place finish in the Toyota Owners 400. It was Elliott's best performance to-date in 2024. He'll ride that momentum into Martinsville Speedway this Sunday. The Hendrick Motorsports star has some pretty good performance stats at this oval. Elliott is a one-time Martinsville winner (2020) and his 10 Top-10 finishes check in at a sound 59-percent rate and 13.2 average finish. With over 1,000 career laps led at this small oval, it's obvious that Elliott loves racing here. We're willing to bet he checks into the Top 10 in Sunday's Cook Out 400.  

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is in a similar situation to his teammate, Chase Elliott. Byron has been great on the bigger ovals but the short tracks have been lean until this past Sunday's Top 10 at Richmond. The Hendrick Motorsports star earned an impressive victory in this event two years ago, and he's nabbed four Top-10 finishes in his last six Martinsville Speedway starts. Byron now sports a reasonable 50-percent Top-10 rate and steady 14.9 average finish at the southern Virginia oval. Coming off the good seventh-place performance of this past week at Richmond, we believe this driver and team will carry that forward into Martinsville Speedway.     

Ross Chastain – Chastain returns to the scene of his "Hail Melon" maneuver that netted him a Top-5 finish at Martinsville Speedway two seasons ago and into the championship round of the Chase at Phoenix. The Trackhouse Racing veteran had a tough time earlier in his NASCAR career at Martinsville Speedway, but his last four visits since moving to Trackhouse have been noteworthy. Chastain has nabbed 31 laps led, two Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes during that time for a strong 9.0 average finish over the last four events. This driver and team are not a major threat to win the Cook Out 400, but they are good enough to battle through the field and forge a Top-10 or Top-15 finish.

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 14 Ford has been locked in during his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway. Briscoe has qualified well (7.3 starting spot over the span) and he's finished well with four consecutive Top-10 finishes. He's also led 134 laps during that time at the Virginia short track. Briscoe has been reasonably good on short tracks to this point in 2024 with one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in the three events. Martinsville Speedway really holds some appeal to this driver and team, so we expect Briscoe to respond accordingly in Sunday's Cook Out 400. He makes a great deeper tier fantasy racing play in weekly lineup leagues.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace led some laps and was a Top-15 finisher at Richmond this past week. He should present similar fantasy racing value at Martinsville Speedway as well. His last four starts at the half-mile track have netted two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes for a sound 11.0 average finish over the span. Wallace's ninth- and 11th-place finishes at the track one year ago speak volumes of his ability on this small oval. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has just a 19.3 average finish on the short tracks thus far in 2024, but don't let that number fool you. This track really appeals to Wallace and he tends to perform very well at Martinsville Speedway.      

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch is a two-time Martinsville winner and his strong 46-percent Top-5 rate at the short track would normally lock him into contender's status this week. However, the No. 8 RCR team and Busch are struggling right now on the small ovals. Busch has finishes of 22nd-, 25th- and 20th-place at Phoenix, Bristol and Richmond to open the season. Those are marks well below our expectations for this driver and team. The handling setups have been awful and Busch simply can't drive the car and maintain the lead lap. It would be a major risk to deploy him for fantasy racing purposes at Martinsville Speedway given how poorly they've performed and as lately as this past weekend.         

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster is fresh off an impressive 10th-place finish in Richmond and he's been trying to build some momentum in recent weeks. However, Martinsville Speedway has been nothing but a track of struggles for Reddick to this point in his career. In eight previous Cup Series starts he has just one Top-10 finish and an inflated 20.9 average finish. In the two events at Martinsville Speedway last season, Reddick struggled to 22nd- and 26th-place finishes despite reasonably good qualifying efforts. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has been a pretty steady short track performer to this point in his NASCAR career, but Reddick has had his struggles at the Martinsville short track.

Alex Bowman – Bowman is a past Martinsville winner (2021) but his performance at this small oval has been spotty at best over his Cup Series career. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has just four Top-10 finishes in 15 starts at Martinsville Speedway (27-percent) and a less than inspiring 19.6 average finish. The short tracks thus far this season have been a bit of a puzzle for the No. 48 Chevrolet team. Bowman has just one Top 10 in three starts and a pedestrian 13.7 average finish. He's led just 3 laps in those outings and he never really has been a big lap leader on short tracks during his career. We believe Bowman is a better fantasy racing play on the intermediate and larger ovals and is worth benching this week.                  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Coming off a disappointing 33rd-place finish at Richmond this past week, we're calling to fade Stenhouse and the No. 47 team at Martinsville Speedway. The veteran driver's struggles to this point in the season on short tracks are part of the reason why and the other is his career-long struggles at Martinsville. In 22-career starts at the Virginia short track, Stenhouse has just three Top-10 finishes for a lowly 14-percent Top-10 rate. His average finish at the oval stands at a subpar 24.0 across those starts. His 29.0 average finish thus far in 2024 between Phoenix, Bristol and Richmond are a huge caution sign heading into the Cook Out 400. We expect this veteran driver and team to underperform in this 400-lap battle.