Coca-Cola 600 Preview: Memorial Day Marathon

This weekend NASCAR comes to North Carolina and returns to the intermediate oval in Charlotte.  On the heels of this past weekend's All-Star Race, we visit Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600. This has been the traditional event for Memorial Day weekend for many years now. This 600-mile marathon, the longest race of the season, is the perfect way to celebrate the long holiday weekend. Charlotte Motor Speedway sets the stage for this high-speed, big stakes battle of survival. CMS is one of the NASCAR Cup Series' many 1.5-mile tri-ovals. It's very similar to both Atlanta & Texas in many respects, but the oval at Charlotte seems to produce more side-by-side racing than the other intermediate tracks. Horsepower is the name of the game at this high-speed oval, and the durability of the equipment is pushed to the max. The 400 laps run during the Coca-Cola 600, under the lights, and late into the night take their toll on both the cars and the drivers. In summary, this race is about equipment preservation, driver preservation and fuel preservation. The long green-flag runs we typically see in the 600 can often set up a fuel-mileage run to the finish, so crew chiefs have a lot to keep their eyes on in this very long race. The extra 100-miles raced may not seem like a lot, but rest assured it's enough to make a major difference in who wins and who loses this Sunday night.

This past week's unusual All-Star Race at Texas did little to prepare the teams for the Coca-Cola 600. While it was racing on an intermediate oval, the short distance and short segments won't resemble most of the action we'll see at Charlotte this weekend. One thing is for sure, the 600-mile distance provides the teams with several pit stops and chances to improve the handling of their race cars. It will be the team that keeps up with the constantly changing surface and cooling evening air that will be doing a victory burnout at the end of the night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The team that starts out this race the fastest doesn't always end the evening the fastest, as we have seen many times over the years. Some practice and qualifying laps this weekend will help to temper this factor some for the 600, but the race is so long that the track is never the same from a handling standpoint at 6 PM vs. 10 PM.     

We need to take a brief look at the historical loop stats for the oval at Charlotte. The extended length of this event does play a major factor in the performance of the drivers.   The long green-flag runs and pit strategy we'll see in the Coca-Cola 600 cannot be replicated in any other race. For this event, the loop data from Charlotte Motor Speedway will play a significant role in our fantasy racing picks. The 1.5-mile oval in Charlotte has been a track of streaks the last few years, and that could make it an easily-predictable race this weekend. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 16 years or 31 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota teams have each won in the last four events at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The track that bowtie teams dominated for years has become a venue of parity the last few seasons. With Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson's victories in the last two Charlotte races, we'll see if CMS is tilting toward Chevrolet this weekend in the Coca-Cola 600. Ford driver, Brad Keselowski, won this event two years ago. He ran a smart and strategy-based race, led 21 laps and took the checkered flag at the end of 600 miles. Martin Truex Jr.'s victory in the 2019 installment of the Coca-Cola 600 was Toyota's last victory at the Charlotte oval.  If this manufacturer hopes to climb back over both Ford and Chevrolet, the burden will largely fall on Truex and his No. 19 Toyota team. 

Considering what we've seen to this point in 2022 on the cookie-cutter ovals the two best-positioned drivers to win this Sunday night could be Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. The two Kyles have yet to rack up a win on the 1.5-mile tracks but have led a combined 229 laps and registered a combined six Top-5 finishes on these ovals this season. When all the variables are considered we could be looking at a new victor at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend. With so many young talents now in the NASCAR Cup Series, we could easily see a first-time Charlotte winner in the Coca-Cola 600. Below, we'll outline the drivers you need to stock up on to dominate your fantasy racing leagues at Charlotte Motor Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been sharp on intermediate tracks so far this season with Top-5 finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas, and he's coming off a strong performance in the All-Star Race at Texas that could have led to a win were it not for a flat tire. Busch has led well over 1,400 career laps at Charlotte Motor Speedway and he cracks the Top 5 at a strong 46-percent rate. He finished an impressive third place in this event one year ago and really seems to like the 600-mile format at this track. It's a good preview of what to expect this Sunday night in the Coca-Cola 600. With four Top-5 finishes in his last five Charlotte starts, Busch is cracking the Top 5 at a whopping 80-percent rate recently.   

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star is coming off an impressive runner-up finish at Kansas and seems to be finding his stride with these new Next-Gen cars. The return to Charlotte Motor Speedway should favor Larson very well in his pursuit to win his second race of the season. He's led 119 total laps on these style ovals in 2022 and has three Top-5 finishes so far. Larson had never won in 11 prior starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway until last season's Coca-Cola 600. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet led a dominating 327 laps from the pole and secured his first-career Charlotte victory in this event one year ago. Larson's upside in this event is hard to overlook.

Ross Chastain – With a third-place Las Vegas finish, second-place Atlanta finish and seventh-place Kansas finish, Chastain has been dialed in on these size tracks. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has led a lot of laps in these events as well (129). The victory has yet to come for Chastain on these style ovals, but he's already a two-time winner in 2022. There's little doubt about the capabilities of the No. 1 Chevrolet team coming into the Coca-Cola 600. Chastain doesn't have a sterling record at the 1.5-mile North Carolina track, but this is an all-new driver given his team's current level of performance. We expect to see Chastain racing among the leaders late into Sunday night.

William Byron – This will be Byron's sixth-career start at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and while he has just two Top-10 finishes in his five prior efforts, we believe he'll be a driver to "click" this weekend. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is a two-time pole winner at Charlotte and has led 61 combined laps to this point. In this event one year ago he piloted his team's Chevy to 19 laps led and a strong fourth-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. Byron won earlier this season on the 28-degree banking in Atlanta and cracked the Top 5 at the similar-sized Las Vegas oval. He could take a strong race car to victory lane in Sunday night's 600-mile marathon.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a three-time Charlotte winner since 2016 and he had up until last season a sharp six-race Top-10 streak at the track. The recent performance surge for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota at Charlotte Motor Speedway has brought up his Top-10 rate at the track to 43-percent. This season, in the new car, Truex hasn't been a world-beater on these style tracks but he has been consistent. Top 10's at Las Vegas, Atlanta and Kansas are good indicators heading into the Coca-Cola 600. Truex knows this track well and should have the speed to easily post another Top-10 finish in 2022.       

Chase Elliott – The No. 9 Chevrolet team has been quite a performer at the Charlotte oval in recent races. Elliott has one win and three runner-up finishes at this track in his last seven starts. With over 130 laps led in his last four Charlotte races, he's quite used to racing up front here. These recent performances have lowered his average finish to 11.9 at the Charlotte oval. Elliott cracks the Top 10 at a stellar 60-percent rate at Charlotte Motor Speedway. With Top 10s at Las Vegas and Atlanta this season, he should be ready for this 600-mile race.   

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been a tough-luck performer much of this season, but there's ample evidence that he could be strong Sunday night in the Coca-Cola 600. Last week's All-Star Race at Texas saw Hamlin drive to a strong runner-up finish. Finally, some signs of life from the No. 11 team on an intermediate oval in the Next-Gen car. Hamlin has 19 Top 10's at Charlotte in 33-career starts for a stellar 63-percent rate. His last two starts at the North Carolina speedway have netted second- and seventh-place finishes. With the Joe Gibbs Racing star seemingly turning his season around, this could be a very timely visit to Charlotte Motor Speedway.    

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has been uneven in intermediate oval performances this season. However, Logano showed some signs of life at Texas in the All-Star Race this past Sunday. He would finish a strong fourth place in that exhibition event and carry some momentum into this week for the Coca-Cola 600. Logano is a one-time Charlotte winner (2015) and he cracks the Top 10 here at a respectable 48-percent rate. Logano's recent Darlington win is a great example of his upside right now in terms of fantasy racing deployment.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – This season has been rather a struggle for Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team on these cookie-cutter ovals. Then, last Sunday night, Blaney struck gold at the All-Star Race in Texas. He would lead 84 laps and take the victory in that exhibition race. Blaney has been a spotty career performer at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but recent performances have been strong. Two of his last three visits to the track have netted a pair of third-place finishes. Given Blaney's current momentum and riding the All-Star win into Charlotte this week, Blaney should be a big performer in the Coca-Cola 600.  

Kevin Harvick – Harvick's 2022 season has had its ups and downs, but he fits the mold of a driver who's had a solid run at Charlotte, racking up three top 10s, including one top-five finish over three races at Charlotte in the last two seasons. He's collected the third-most fastest laps during that span and the sixth-most laps led at Charlotte as well, so he's one of the better drivers when it comes to this track, averaging a finish just worse than eighth overall (8.3). That being said, he wasn't particularly quick at a similar track last week in Texas, finishing 14th in the All-Star Race. His past performances at this track still make him an intriguing play if you're looking for a candidate outside of the inner circle of contenders.

Tyler Reddick - Granted he has only run three Cup Series races at Charlotte, but Reddick does have the best average finish of any active driver at the famed 1.5-mile facility (10.7). Speaking of 1.5-mile tracks, this will be the third straight for the Cup Series if you include the All-Star Race at Texas last week. Reddick showed a lot of speed at both Kansas and Texas, before being relegated to a poor finish due to a crash. That first Cup Series win feels like it is coming sooner rather than later and the Coca-Cola 600 has been a great race for drivers to pick up that first checkered flag in NASCAR's top series with names like Jeff Gordon (1994), Bobby Labonte (1995), Matt Kenseth (2000), Jamie McMurray (2002), and Austin Dillon (2017) accomplishing that feat within the last 30 years. 

Kurt Busch - One thing has been clear in 2022. The Toyota's have been bad fast at the 1.5-mile tracks. That was evident in the last points race at Kansas where Kurt Busch won stage two and the race while leading a whopping 116 laps. That strength should continue at Charlotte, which has always been a good track for Busch for whatever team he has been driving for. The Las Vegas native has the third-most laps led (626) and the fourth-most fastest laps (326) at Charlotte of any active driver. Busch won the 2010 Coca-Cola 600 for Team Penske and sat on the pole for NASCAR's longest race in 2020 for Chip Ganassi. 

Alex Bowman – Another driver we find hiding amongst the weeds is Bowman, who has managed four three top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes at Charlotte and other cookie-cutter ovals since the start of the 2021 season. Excluding DNFs, Bowman has an average finish of 5.5 at these tracks, placing him among the best in the Cup Series. He doesn't have a ton of laps led but did lead five of them last season and led a combined 215 in the previous two races at this track. There's certainly reason for optimism regarding his performance this week given his recent forays at this track and similar ones.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Chase Briscoe - Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole has really struggled on the higher-banked 1.5-mile tracks for the last couple of years. Their setups have been better suited for flat tracks during that time frame. For a guy that has already picked up a win this season, Briscoe is a driver that will have no value in all formats. He ran consistently at the tail-end of the lead lap at both Kansas and Texas the last two weeks, two other 1.5-mile tracks. Briscoe also lacks experience at Charlotte compared to a lot of other drivers who are in a similar range.

Bubba Wallace – While Wallace is coming off of a Top-10 finish in the race prior to All-Star weekend, he hasn't fared nearly as well in his attempts at Charlotte. In five career races at the course, he's averaged a 26th place finish and has not collected a top-10 run to date. He's also finished on the lead lap just once in those attempts at the course. He's fared slightly better when we include similar tracks of Atlanta and Texas, with Bubba averaging a finish of 19.4 in 14 races overall, but he still has just one Top-10 finish in 14 career races at the tree courses, so there isn't a ton to like in regards to his prospects this weekend.

Aric Almirola - Almirola is on this list for much the same reason as teammate Chase Briscoe, SHR has lacked speed on the 1.5-mile tracks. Almirola finished 26th at the last points-paying race at Kansas, in what was one of his worst performances of the season. Charlotte has also been mostly a nightmare track for Almirola, with just one top-10 finish in 16 career starts. Outside of Penske, this is a week where you want to try to stick in the Toyota or Chevrolet camp. 

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski owns the fifth-best average finish of all active drivers at Charlotte, including two victories and 322 laps led. There's just one problem, that all came with Team Penske. Now he will be going there with RFK Racing equipment, which he has largely been outrun all season by teammate Chris Buescher. Again outside of Penske, the Fords early in the season just have not performed that well on the higher banked tracks like Charlotte. There are plenty of other names that will be in a similar range as Keselowski that will be better fitted for this 1.5-mile package.