Ally 400 Preview: Music City Showdown

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Nashville Superspeedway after debuting at the track three seasons ago. This oval is a moderately-banked 1.33-mile track that is concrete paved and features 14-degree banking in the turns. The event is 300 laps, divided into three stages of 90 laps, 95 laps and 115 laps. Average speeds will be near 160 mph as the concrete surface provides high grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing. The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals and concrete paved. From its opening in 2001 Nashville Superspeedway hosted Xfinity Series and Truck Series events until the track's closure in 2011. The facility had not been a part of the NASCAR schedule for close to a decade until three years ago and the Ally 400's successful return.

Since this is just the fourth race at a new track, we have very limited data to examine. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals, as well as the loop data from the last three Nashville Superspeedway races. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks. This loop data will be fresh, but bear in mind that the sample size is very small. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from the last three races at Nashville Superspeedway.

Coming into this weekend's 400-mile event we're going to rely a lot on current hot streaks and we're going to look with a critical eye at recent performance on intermediate ovals. We believe the statistical table above will be some help in determining drivers to target this week. However, we have to realize the small sample size of three races and one of those being in the old generation stock car.

In last season's race at Nashville, we witnessed Ross Chastain win a battle with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin to surge into the lead late and capture the win. He would dominate most of the race and lead a race-high 99 laps, but would have to survive the challenges of those two Joe Gibbs Racing stars to nab the victory. That win by Chastain gives Chevrolet three-straight victories at Nashville Superspeedway and puts control of this oval squarely in the bowtie brand's hands. We believe a potential power shift could be stirring for this weekend and we could see a completely new victor and new manufacturer in victory lane at Nashville. For example, we've seen Ryan Blaney (Ford), Austin Cindric (Ford) and Christopher Bell (Toyota) win the last three oval events in the schedule. Each of those races saw multiple lap leaders, lots of parity and margins of victory less than 1-second, with the exception of Cindric's Gateway win. We should be in for more of that uncertainty Sunday in the Ally 400. In the outline below, we'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games at Nashville Superspeedway.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event three years ago in a dominant performance. Larson led 264 of the 300 laps and pounded the field into the pavement to win by more than 4-seconds over Ross Chastain. Larson is one of only two drivers to finish inside the Top 5 of all three prior races at Nashville Superspeedway, and he owns a series-leading 264 laps led at Nashville. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been great on intermediate ovals already this season with wins at both Las Vegas and Kansas. Larson has shown the ability to dominate at this oval and he has been a strong performer on the cookie cutter tracks this season. He'll be the man to beat Sunday in Nashville.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been an up-and-down performer this season, but he's generally had strong performances on the cookie cutter ovals. He has Top 5's recently at Charlotte and Kansas, and Hamlin has led 139 laps thus far this season on the intermediate ovals. Hamlin was a non-factor in his Nashville Superspeedway debut three seasons ago, but he came to this track with a roar in 2022. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota led 114 laps and finished a strong sixth-place in that Ally 400. The Joe Gibbs Racing star would return to Nashville last season and not lead as many laps, but collect an impressive third-place finish. Hamlin will race among the leaders and battle for the win in the Ally 400.

Ryan Blaney – His recent power surge nabbed a win a couple weeks ago at Iowa Speedway, and we believe Blaney could be very relevant again this weekend. The Penske Racing star has crashed out of two Nashville starts, but in 2022 he piloted the No. 12 Ford to a strong third-place finish in the Ally 400. Blaney has been up-and-down on the cookie cutter ovals this season, but he did grab a pair of Top 5's early in the campaign and should be able to rediscover that form at Nashville Superspeedway this weekend. The Penske Racing star is likely Ford's best shot at victory lane this weekend, and he shouldn't be overlooked going into this 400-mile battle.

Christopher Bell – Coming off the big, convincing win at Loudon this past week, we like Bell to stay on a roll coming to Music City this week. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is turning around a slow start to the season and in a big way. Bell also won a few weeks ago at the mid-sized oval in Charlotte and grabbed a pole and sixth-place finish at Kansas Speedway. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has made three prior visits to Nashville Superspeedway and he's come away with three-straight Top-10 finishes. Those work out to a stellar 8.0 average finish for the JGR youngster. Bell is on a roll and visiting an oval where he can easily do more damage to the point standings.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing driver narrowly missed winning his first two starts at Nashville Superspeedway. Chastain would cash in last season and win from the pole in a very strong performance. He would lead 99 laps that day and grab the victory, which was his third-straight Top-5 finish at the Nashville oval. His average finish now stands at a stellar 2.7 at the concrete paved track. Chastain hasn't been quite as strong on the intermediate ovals this season, but he still sports a 60-percent Top-10 rate on these cookie cutter ovals. The driver of the No.1 Chevrolet brings tremendous potential to the table in this Ally 400 and narrowly misses making the contenders group of drivers.

Chase Elliott – Elliott led 42 laps and won this event two years ago. The Hendrick Motorsports star would return to Nashville last season and grab an impressive fourth-place finish in the Ally 400. Despite wrecking in his first Nashville Superspeedway start, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been very strong since then. Elliott has been very sharp in recent intermediate oval evens with a win at Fort Worth and three-straight Top 10's on the cookie cutter tracks. The concrete surface of Nashville's oval seems to really appeal to this driver and team and Elliott respond with good performances. He should easily crack the Top 10 and possibly challenge the Top 5 Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway.

Joey Logano – Logano has been somewhat inconsistent on the mid-sized tracks this season, and the reason primarily he's not in the contenders list this week. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford was recently a fifth-place finisher at Gateway and sixth-place finisher at Iowa, so that underscores his worth this Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway. Now Logano can set his sights on the 1.33-mile Nashville track and look for another strong performance. He has qualified extremely well at Nashville Superspeedway with an average start of 3.0 across his three attempts. Logano has nabbed a pair of Top-10 finishes in those effort and it works out to a strong 12.7 average finish. We expect Logano to be on his "A" game in the Ally 400.

William Byron – Byron has been razor sharp on cookie cutter ovals this season and has three Top 10's (60-percent) on the 1.5-mile tracks and sharp 11.2 average finish. Most recently he was third-place at Charlotte with 49 laps led at that similar sized oval. The 11.2 average finish on these tracks is only tarnished by Byron's poor Kansas performance. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished third- and sixth-place in two of his three prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway. The sixth-place came in this event last season with 5 laps led. The notes from that outing will come in very handy for this driver and team in Sunday's Nashville battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been his usual dominant self on these intermediate ovals in 2024, but Truex has been consistent. He's racked up two Top 10's in the five events to-date and strong 9.8 average finish. Truex will now set his sights on the oval at Nashville Superspeedway. He's coming off a steady ninth-place finish this past weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In this Nashville event one year ago, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota qualified well (sixth), led 50 laps, and finished runner-up in the Ally 400. We expect a hungry Truex to come to Tennessee this weekend and a Top-10 finish will be the result.

Tyler Reddick –  The 23XI Racing youngster has been on a roll of late. Reddick has grabbed four Top-10 finishes in the last five events and collected the third-most championship points of any driver in the field. He'll ride that momentum into the Ally 400 this weekend. Reddick has three Top-5 finishes in five starts on the cookie cutter ovals this season for a steady 12.0 average finish. His three prior starts at Nashville have not been noteworthy to this point, however, Reddick did qualify on the outside pole last season and lead 33 laps before fading to a poor finish. We believe Reddick has what it takes to challenge the Top 10 Sunday in Nashville.    

Brad Keselowski – After a slow start to the season, Keselowski has been a steady performer in recent weeks. The intermediate ovals have been kind to the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford. Keselowski has finishes of second-, 11th- and second-place in this last three starts on 1.5-mile ovals. He's not been a big performer at the Nashville oval, but the better of his three starts came in this event one year ago. Keselowski qualified mid-pack and drove to a respectable 11th-place finish in the Ally 400. We believe he has more in the tank for this outing. He'll likely collect a career-best Nashville finish this Sunday afternoon.

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been an up-and-down performer on the intermediate ovals this season, so we've slotted him in the sleepers list this week. The driver of the No. 17 Ford did have an impressive runner-up finish at Kansas recently, and that's very encouraging ahead of the Ally 400. Buescher is coming off a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three races and brings some momentum into Nashville this week. He's not really made his mark on this speedway yet in his three prior starts, but we believe this changes starting this weekend. This driver and team have the momentum and experience recently on mid-sized ovals to turn in a great performance in this 400-mile battle. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman is another driver who's yet to make his mark on Nashville Superspeedway, but we believe that should change this Sunday afternoon. His last two intermediate oval starts have netted seventh- and ninth-place finishes. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has reversed some early-season struggles he had on these mid-sized tracks. His three prior starts at Nashville work out to a subpar 22.3 average finish, but this weekend's start will be the one that sets a new trend for the No. 48 team. Bowman has the ability to crack the Top 15 and maybe even challenge the Top 10 in the Ally 400. We expect a decent qualifying effort and even better race performance at Nashville Superspeedway.   

Daniel Suarez – With a strong ninth-place finish at Iowa Speedway a few weeks ago Suarez may have signaled that his recent lean times are coming to an end. That's a good sign for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team heading to Tennessee this week. Suarez has had three good outings at Nashville Superspeedway to this point. He has one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in those efforts for an eye-catching 11.3 average finish. The veteran Mexican driver is certainly not a major threat to win this race, but his trajectory indicates some steady improvement and some potential to challenge the Top 10 at Nashville this weekend. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week 

Kyle Busch – Busch has had a struggle-filled season to this point. He comes to Nashville a disappointing 17th-place in the driver point standings and mired in a six-race Top-10 drought. The Richard Childress Racing star was decent earlier in the season on intermediate ovals, but his recent hard times cast a shadow of doubt on his potential for the Ally 400. Busch has been pedestrian at best at Nashville Superspeedway thus far, with just one Top 10 in the three starts and 13.7 average finish. We believe the No. 8 team is one to pass on in weekly lineup games this Sunday.

Chase Briscoe – Even though Briscoe has been improved of late with his runner-up finish this past week at Loudon, we're calling for the fantasy fade at Nashville. His three prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway have netted three finishes outside the Top 30 for a woeful 32.0 average finish. It could be that the concrete surface is simply not to Briscoe's liking and a real challenge for the Stewart Haas Racing driver. Briscoe has just one Top-10 finish in five starts on intermediate ovals this season, so they haven't been his best tracks. We believe Briscoe and the No. 14 team are bench candidates for the Ally 400.  

Austin Dillon – Despite some past success at Nashville Superspeedway, Dillon is a driver to fade this weekend. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has scored three-straight Top-15 finishes at the Nashville oval for a reasonable 13.0 average finish. However, things have been quite different this season for this driver and team. With just one Top-10 finish and a 19.6 average finish on the intermediate ovals, Dillon hasn't been as sharp. Dillon comes to Nashville this weekend mired in a three-race Top 10 drought and a lowly 32nd-place in the championship standings. He's a driver to avoid in the Ally 400.

Michael McDowell – Despite a recent runner-up finish at Sonoma and Top 10 at Kansas, McDowell has had a lot of struggles this season. The Front Row Motorsports veteran sits 22nd in the championship standings entering the weekend and looking like a long shot to make the NASCAR playoffs. McDowell had some good early-season performances on intermediate ovals, but has since cooled. The driver of the No. 34 Ford has one Top-15 finish in his three prior Nashville Superspeedway starts and a lower than desired 19.0 average finish. In this event one year ago, McDowell struggled to a 28th-place finish in the Ally 400. There are better fantasy options in the driver pool than McDowell this week.