Odds & Ends: What's Trending Week 1

Kirill the Thrill

Step aside, Phil Kessel, you're no longer the thicc winger we're looking for. The Wild have practically been begging for Kirill Kaprizov to come to the NHL, and his much-hyped debut Thursday did not disappoint. He scored three points playing on the top line, including the overtime winner after picking off an errant neutral-zone pass, and then assisted on Marcus Johansson's overtime winner the following game. He is Minnesota's most talented and dynamic scorer since Marian Gaborik and suddenly gives the Wild offense a lot more legitimacy because an aging Zach Parise and Kevin Fiala alone doesn't scare anyone.

Astute owners selected Kaprizov with a late pick in most drafts (ADP: 152.3), and he is rostered in more than 75 percent of fantasy leagues. There's always tons of roster turnover in the first couple weeks of the season because players values are being adjusted and corrected, but Kaprizov's percentage will not dip, and he should be rostered in all leagues immediately. In other words, in the one-quarter of leagues where he's still available — hurry! Two minor drawbacks: Kaprizov's current center, Nick Bjugstad, has stone hands with 28 points in his last 79 games, and the Wild power play is 0-for-11 to start the season. One of these will sort itself out eventually, but the other might not be so easy.

Couturier Out at Least 2 weeks

Sean Couturier suffered a rib injury in the second game against the Pens and will be out a minimum two weeks. This is a big blow to the Flyers, but they have enough quality depth to stem the loss in the short term. Couturier's spot between Oskar Lindblom and Travis Konecny was shared between Nolan Patrick and Scott Laughton during the game, but Patrick is the better fit with his offensive upside. Couturier's absence means gifted scorer Morgan Frost likely will draw in, and even with limited playing time (2-5-7 in 20 games last season) he has shown he can be very productive. It also means a spot on one of the two power-play units is open, too, which likely will go to Lindblom to start. 

Farabee (45 percent rostered), Lindblom (12 percent), Patrick (9 percent) and Frost (1 percent) are available in most leagues, and those numbers should tick higher when everyone realizes that the Flyers have a chance to be the best in the division with a deep group of forwards. The Flyers have a favorable schedule in the short term, facing Buffalo and New Jersey in two of their next three series. 

Jarry Rhymes (Close Enough) with "Sorry" 

It's not all on Tristan Jarry, but the Penguins have had a terrible start. We can usually predict which teams face potential goalie controversies, but Pittsburgh was not among them, as jettisoning Matt Murray and going with Jarry was widely seen as the right move. Through two games, Jarry has a woeful 7.57 GAA and .710 Sv%, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Casey DeSmith smart Sunday against the rival Capitals. Pittsburgh has a funny history of usurps in net, from Marc-Andre Fleury to Murray to Jarry — could Jarry's reign be the shortest? There's a ton of pressure on Pittsburgh; it made significant changes to its roster this season and Jim Rutherford realizes that the window is closing. In a condensed season against a tough division in which the Penguins are already in last place, Sullivan may have to simply resort to whoever has the hotter hand. 

Fantasy managers who have rostered Jarry should be concerned in the short term because DeSmith (7 percent rostered) showed well enough in relief (12 saves on 13 shots) to be a threat to steal the starting job. DeSmith is worth rostering in a season already thin on quality goaltending, especially if you already have Jarry on your roster. However, the analytics say Jarry was legitimately good last season, ranked sixth in even-strength save percentage (.928, min. 1,000 TOI) and eighth in goals saved above average (9.47), according to Natural Stat Trick, so Jarry's long-term should not be greatly affected by his poor start. Grab DeSmith just to be safe because stranger things have happened. 

Oilers' Goalie Headaches have Already Started

First, the Oilers sign Anton Forsberg for added depth after making a curious decision to re-sign Mike Smith. Then, because they already have Mikko Koskinen and Smith, Forsberg is placed on waivers and subsequently claimed by the Canes, leaving them without an emergency/third-string goalie. Now, Smith is injured (undisclosed) and expected to be placed on LTIR, so the Oilers are forced to claim Troy Grosenick, who is 31 and appeared in two NHL games five years ago, and call up fourth-string Olivier Rodrigue to their taxi squad. The real gut punch: Grosenick, arriving from California, and Rodrigue, recalled from a loan to the Graz99ers in the Austrian League, will both need to quarantine per Canada's COVID travel policy, meaning the Oilers do not have any backups available until Jan. 27. Basically, the Oilers is that person in your fantasy league who forgot about goaltending. 

This is poor luck but also bad asset management, and there's no immediate solution. That means Koskinen, drafted in 77 percent of the time with an ADP of 174.7, and rostered in just 55 percent of leagues after allowing 12 goals in three games, has to start all five games until Grosenick and Rodrigue's quarantines are complete. Koskinen is now a valuable add in leagues that favor quantity over quality (ie. saves vs. save percentage), and at least he can count on Connor McDavid to singlehandedly win games. The Oilers allow 37 shots per game, second-highest in the league, and projected over their next five backup goalie-less games, that's 165 total saves for Koskinen, who already ranks first with 99. 

Rookie Report

Every season, there's a handful of rookies who pop out of nowhere and challenge for the Calder. Last year, it was Dominik Kubalik and Victor Olofsson, both of whom were seventh-round picks. The truth is, most of the hyped rookies tend to disappoint because most of the time they're playing on bad teams. Usually, it's the rookies who are depth players that have good seasons because they tend to play on better teams and face easier matchups. Vancouver's Nils Hoglander (15 percent rostered) fits this bill, a puck wizard who has started the season on Bo Horvat's right wing on the second line, a spot that has seen a Dormammu time loop of misfits (actually Loui Eriksson). Hoglander has played well enough to avoid a demotion when J.T. Miller returns, but he will definitely lose his spot on the top power-play unit. This hurts Hoglander's upside, but he remains a top-six winger whom Travis Green clearly trusts, and that still makes him a valuable add in most fantasy leagues. 

There's also fifth-round Sharks pick John Leonard (1 percent rostered), a former UMass Minuteman and Hobey Baker finalist who led the country in goals (27) last season and won a second-line job playing with Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane. There's already a ton of talent on that line, and the Sharks are so starved of quality depth, nobody has appeared to be a threat to take Leonard's job. He's on the smaller side, but he's also got quick hands and finishes very well around the net, and that's good because Hertl and Kane are capable of creating space down low with their size and skill. Leonard passes the eye test (2 goals, 4 shots), the nerd test (56.1 CF% at even strength) and the coach's test (L2, PP2), and at his current rate is a sneaky, dark-horse Calder candidate who deserves to be picked up. 

Other notable rookies who deserve at least a blue star: former Swiss league MVP Pius Suter (1 percent rostered, dual position) is skating on Chicago's top line with Patrick Kane, last year's AHL All-Rookie and First Team All-Star Josh Norris (5 percent) has two points in two games as Ottawa's top center, Yegor Sharangovich (1 percent) is an OT hero and fourth among forwards in TOI/GP in New Jersey, and former 11th overall pick and Anze Kopitar's protégé Gabriel Vilardi (4 percent) is playing well centering L.A.'s second line.