This article is part of our NHL Waiver Wire series.
Second-Half Predictions, and How to Benefit from Them
Now that the All-Star Break is upon us, we can look back at the first half with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. While you might be kicking yourself for taking Sidney Crosby first overall in your draft, there was little indication at the time that your decision was misguided -- I myself made that mistake in one of my pools. You might also feel relatively comfortable in your Washington-heavy team, a feeling definitely borne out by the standings today. Wherever you are, things change after the deepest dark of the winter -- the trade deadline is on the horizon, and the playoffs are not too far after that. I have looked deep into my crystal ball, and pulled out the following nuggets of truth for the second half.
Florida is no joke -- and will continue the break-neck pace of the first half
It wasn't that long ago at all -- two seasons, in fact -- that Florida was a travesty of a team. Yes, it was laden with young, up-and-coming talent, but there wasn't any hope of playoffs in its future. The Panthers were a rebuilding project with many years ahead of them. Fast forward to today, and the future is now. With Jaromir Jagr providing sage wisdom and guidance to the youthful budding superstars in Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Aaron Ekblad, along with an extremely deep roster of secondary scoring, and phenomenal goaltending with Roberto Luongo,
Second-Half Predictions, and How to Benefit from Them
Now that the All-Star Break is upon us, we can look back at the first half with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. While you might be kicking yourself for taking Sidney Crosby first overall in your draft, there was little indication at the time that your decision was misguided -- I myself made that mistake in one of my pools. You might also feel relatively comfortable in your Washington-heavy team, a feeling definitely borne out by the standings today. Wherever you are, things change after the deepest dark of the winter -- the trade deadline is on the horizon, and the playoffs are not too far after that. I have looked deep into my crystal ball, and pulled out the following nuggets of truth for the second half.
Florida is no joke -- and will continue the break-neck pace of the first half
It wasn't that long ago at all -- two seasons, in fact -- that Florida was a travesty of a team. Yes, it was laden with young, up-and-coming talent, but there wasn't any hope of playoffs in its future. The Panthers were a rebuilding project with many years ahead of them. Fast forward to today, and the future is now. With Jaromir Jagr providing sage wisdom and guidance to the youthful budding superstars in Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov and Aaron Ekblad, along with an extremely deep roster of secondary scoring, and phenomenal goaltending with Roberto Luongo, you've got a dangerous team poised to rock the second half. Based on their play in the last two months, there is the very real possibility that they could challenge Washington for the Eastern crown.
Suggested Acquisition:
Aleksander Barkov C, FLA - The crown jewel of this franchise's offensive output, Barkov is in the midst of taking the next step from young phenom to superstar. Entering his third year in the NHL, he's very nearly made his point total from all of last season by the halfway point this year. In 39 games played, he's tallied 13 goals and 18 assists for 31 points, including seven points in his last 10 games. To go along with those relatively gaudy numbers, he's a responsible plus-12 and has eight power play points -- both valuable secondary category numbers to help with his overall fantasy value. Interestingly, his ownership rate is about a coin toss in most leagues (46 percent), which is bizarre given he's nearly a point per game player. The second half of the season should see his point production continue, with my estimates putting him at around 60 points to finish the year in 70 games played. Not too shabby for a player you have a shot of picking up on the wire.
Montreal will recover -- when Carey Price does
Fear not, Habs' fans, the darkest days are behind you, and the prodigal son will return to help right the ship. Any player will tell you that the team plays differently in front of different goalies, and the confidence and swagger the Canadiens play with when Price is in net is completely absent. They play tentative and scared, clutching the sticks a little too tightly, afraid that any mistake will end up in the back of the net. The result: an epic collapse midseason from the lofty start they had. Fantasy-wise, this poses an interesting opportunity for GMs to go out and grab a few key Canadiens in advance of Price's return, when their value is at an all-season low.
Suggested Acquisition:
Brendan Gallagher W, MON - There is nobody on Montreal who has the five-tool talent that Gallagher possesses, in a package that is readily acquirable via trade. He is, quite simply, the best value on the team, and with an ownership rate of 74 percent, there's even the slight possibility he's available in your league. If so, grab him immediately and snicker to yourself: you got the goldmine. Since he's probably taken, reach out to see what the asking price is from the owning GM; chances are, the prices are reasonable. With 12 goals and 14 assists on the year along with 16 PIM, a plus-three and seven power play points, his totals aren't overly noteworthy -- except for the fact he's been injured this year, and only played in 33 games to date, for a team in an epic slump. His rankings are in the mid-100s, which will definitely be the worst it gets this season. Carey Prices return will see his numbers soar, and your investment will pay huge dividends.
The Anaheim comeback completes itself
After an absolutely atrocious start to the year, the Ducks find themselves only two points back of the Arizona Coyotes for a playoff spot with two games in hand. Anaheim will not simply find itself in the hunt, but will definitively fight for the top of the Pacific once again with local rival Los Angeles by the time March rolls around. The team has been on a tear lately, going 7-3 in its last 10 and 13-7-2 since the start of December, among the best in the league. This has largely been the work of the offense waking up -- both Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf returning to form -- and the emergence of solid goaltending and defense. Watch the Ducks intently on the back-nine of this season: they will be key producers for your team.
Suggested Acquisition:
John Gibson G, ANA - While his ownership numbers are steadily climbing -- 60 percent -- they're too low for how he's been playing lately. His record of 11-7-2 with four shutouts is missing some of the underlying numbers currently in play. He started the year 4-4-2, and finally wrestled the starting position away from Frederick Andersen mid-December. Since then, he's never looked back, putting up a fantastic 7-3 with two shutouts. Even when he has lost, his numbers have not dipped below .880 in those games, which is remarkable for any goalie picking up an L. As Anaheim marches forward to claim the position in the division where we all thought it would be, Gibson looks to hold claim to the net for the remainder of the season. It's possible to get him on the wire in some leagues, which I cannot stress enough. For those leagues where he's already taken, he's worth a trade before his numbers approach the top of the league. He's got the pedigree to be an elite goalie in the league, and he's starting to show it. Get him now while the prices are reasonable.
Some of the lights dim in New York
There's a wonderful statistic that I love to use to predict luck in the NHL. The metric is a simple addition of team save percentage and team shooting percentage -- called PDO. It's quite available to look up at any given time online. Teams who have a PDO more than 100 are having a lot of good luck; those less than 100 are getting all the bad bounces. As it turns out, the luckiest team in the league is the New York Rangers, with a PDO of 102.5. Luck has a way of catching up to a team eventually. While their save percentage is .933 -- due in large part to the yeoman's work of Henrik Lundqvist as per norm -- they are shooting at a 9.21 percent clip, almost a half-percent higher than the next highest, Washington. Watch for a cooling of the offense in the Big Apple in the second half, not so much to drop significantly down the standings, but to realign where they should be statistically.
Suggested Divestiture:
Mats Zuccarello W, NYR - With 18 goals and 17 assists for 35 points in 49 games, he's one of the highest scoring Rangers this year, second only to Derick Brassard. He's also solid in secondary categories, posting a plus-three, 16 PIM and 10 power-play points. By all accounts, he's a fantasy golden boy who you would want as a key piece of your championship team, right? Based on his shooting percentage to date, there's plenty of statistical keys to say this cannot continue at the same clip. He's the highest shooting percentage player on the Rangers at 17.39 percent, good for sixth in the league among players playing at least 40 games this year. That clip is almost 50 percent higher than his average of 11.85 percent in his previous two years of playing more than 40 games. Statistically, it's improbable to continue in this fashion. As fantasy GMs, it's always harder to say when to sell high than it is when to buy low. I think this is one time where you should look for an amenable trade partner, and get decent value out of him while it's still as high as it is.
