This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
Stanley Cup Bets for April 24: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals matchup. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TBS.
The Leafs outlasted the Lightning 4-3 in overtime in Game 3, with Morgan Rielly delivering a laser from the top of the left faceoff circle to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy. Toronto seized home-ice advantage back from Tampa. With another win in Game 4, it can push Tampa Bay to the brink.
After getting roughed up 7-3 in Game 1 in Toronto, the Maple Leafs have outscored the Lightning 11-5 in the past two games. Mitchell Marner, who has had some rough offensive outings in the past, at least in terms of goal scoring, already has two goals and eight points with a plus-4 rating. The two goals have already equaled his previous best for a postseason, and his eight points are just one short of the nine points he had in the 2018 playoff series against the Boston Bruins.
Rielly has managed five points, while Ryan O'Reilly has been everything as advertised in the postseason, scoring two goals with five points while winning 27 of his 44 faceoffs (61.36%). O'Reilly scored a goal with 60 ticks left in regulation with an extra attacker, forcing OT.
For the Lightning, Corey Perry leads the team with five points, and he is one of three players with two goals to top the charts this postseason. He and Nikita Kucherov have each managed a team-best three helpers.
It has been a rough postseason for Vasilevskiy, who is 1-2-0 with a 4.22 GAA and subpar .853 SV% in his three starts in the series.
Ilya Samsonov has bounced back with a pair of wins after a shaky Game 1 led to an early exit. Samsonov entered this series 1-6-0 in his previous seven postseason starts, but he is 2-1-0 with a 3.70 GAA and .878 SV% in three games this season, including wins in back-to-back outings.
We should see plenty of physicality and fireworks in Game 4. The Lightning are going to be playing with a lot of desperation, trying to avoid a 3-1 series hole before heading back to Toronto. I expect the Lightning to show their championship mettle, and square the series.
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NHL Money Line Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
- Lightning ML (-110 at Caesars)
When these teams get together, a lot of goals are sure to follow.
We have had 12 goals for the Lightning, or 4.0 goals per game (GPG), in this series, while the Maple Leafs have lit the lamp 14 total times, good for 4.7 GPG. The Over has cashed in each of the three games in this series, and 13 of the past 16 meetings overall.
In addition, the Over has cashed in nine consecutive meetings between these teams in Central Florida, while cashing at an 8-1 clip in the past nine games for both organizations in the Conference Quarterfinals round.
Look for another higher-scoring affair, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to go at the Over rather aggressively.
NHL Totals Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
- Over 6.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
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NHL Player Props for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
Checking out the NHL player props for Game 4, we have plenty of things to choose from on both sides.
Toronto's Mitchell Marner has had multi-point performances in each of the first three games in this series, going for two goals and eight points.
As such, Marner's player prop is Over/Under 1.5 points for Game 4. It's quite crazy that he could have four consecutive games with two or more points, but at plus-money, it's worth a roll of the dice with the way he is going.
- Mitchell Marner Over 1.5 Points (+140 at BetMGM)
For the Lightning, Brandon Hagel has been humming along since earlier in the month. He had three goals and five points in the final four regular-season games, while averaging a point per game (1 G, 2 A) in three outings in the series so far. He is a solid play to notch at least one point in Game 4.
- Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 Points (-125 at BetMGM)
