Frozen Fantasy: Raise or Fold?

The last couple weeks have been hard on fantasy owners. Players are falling like flies.

Big names. With big fantasy impact.

Tuukka Rask. Dougie Hamilton. William Karlsson. Miro Heiskanen.

And before that? Jake Guentzel, Logan Couture, Joonas Korpisalo, Victor Olofsson and Ryan Ellis.

Wow. None are easily replaced. So what do you do?

Raise or fold? Ugh. There's no easy answer.

A buddy of mine is in second in a big money league. He already had Anthony Mantha on the shelf when Brendan Gallagher's headaches returned this week and Rask went on the IR. Oh yah —Sergei Bobrovsky also missed time with an upper-body ouch.

He sacrificed a bit of his future to bolster his chances now. Ville Heinola, Ville Husso and Michael McLeod netted him Aaron Dell — yes, this is a tough league to get goalies — and Zach Hyman.

Did he overpay? He got a maybe starter on a bad club and a sturdy forward who gets zero power-play time.

It took a lot. He sent out a couple other guys to get Oliver Ekman-Larsson, too. He took his shot.

And like in poker, he's hoping that raising will make a couple of his strongest competitors fold.

That's an interesting byproduct that comes when a contender makes some big moves. It happened to me this week.

A team I co-own with Darryl Houston Smith (@dhoustonsmith) seemed like it would be a real contender in the RotoWire staff league. We had Connor McDavid, Jonathan Huberdeau and Brayden Point, plus Thomas Chabot, Mikhail Sergachev and Jordan Binnington. We loaded up with Taylor Hall and Brent Burns.

Did we have enough? Especially with McDavid on an expiring contract, a barren farm team and no draft picks.

We folded. Why? It weighed heavily on us that another contender — Jon Litterine, RotoWire's prospect guru — had essentially done the same, even though he was in a playoff spot, too. He said he just didn't have enough to compete.

We weren't forced into it, but we were certainly influenced. Maybe you can force that, too.

Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Will Butcher, D, New Jersey (3 percent Yahoo owned) – I almost gave up on this guy a couple weeks ago. Butcher has been horrible so far, but he suddenly has five assists in his last four games heading into play Saturday. None have come on the power play, where his skills truly shine. But Butcher is seeing time on the second unit. Call it a hunch or maybe it's simply hope that he can reprise his rookie success. But he's on my watch list.

Phillip Danault, C, Montreal (32 percent) – Danault is one of the most unlikely top-line centers in the NHL. Or so we all thought. His 53-point season last year couldn't be for real. Or could it? Danault is on pace for almost 60 points, 150 hits and nearly 900 faceoff wins. In fact, he's fourth in the NHL in faceoff victories, behind only Ryan O'Reilly, Bo Horvat and Jonathan Toews. That's incredible! Danualt's a stud in so many ways, but his lack of power-play production keeps his ownership a little low. But he can help if you can get special-teams' points somewhere else.

Jordan Eberle, RW, NY Islanders (15 percent) – I think Eberle will be in and out of my crosshairs all season. He had two, two-point games in a row this week and 11 shots in three games. And he added a power-play goal on three shots Saturday afternoon. I'm not sure I'm investing again, simply because I can't just plug Eberle in and let him ride (that's the only way to soften the peaks and valleys in his game). But your team might be able to absorb it.

Jake Gardiner, D, Carolina (11 percent) – I highly recommend you avoid replays of Dougie Hamilton's injury Thursday night. It wasn't as bad as the infamous Joe Theismann snapped leg (graphic warning; you might lose your lunch), but it wasn't pretty either. Hamilton underwent surgery Friday, which means a metal plate. And a long recovery. Gardiner is the obvious recipient of Dougie's power-play time and it might just resurrect his game. He's sitting out there in a lot of formats. And while Jaccob Slavin got the first-unit time on Friday night, Gardiner could still ascend to the top the next couple months.

Conor Garland, LW/RW, Arizona (11 percent) – Garland looked like a star Tuesday night. He scored into an empty net and added two assists, one of which came on the power play. And he added two helpers Friday night. Garland is skating on the Dawgs' top line with Taylor Hall and Christian Dvorak (18 percent Yahoo owned). Both Garland and Dvorak were top-50 producers this past week. The Coyotes don't get the respect they deserve, and that's great for you and me. It just means they're often available on the wire.

Alexandar Georgiev, G, NY Rangers (23 percent) – Georgiev is being showcased, and he's looked damn good. He has two wins and allowed just four goals in those two starts. And with the Rangers playing the lowly Red Wings in a back-to-back at the end of the month, Georgiev could deliver some easy points for your squad. Pick him up and reap the reward in the short term.

Robert Hagg, D, Philadelphia (1 percent) – Admittedly, I never really paid attention to the heavy-hitting Hagg — he's just another tough blue liner with marginal offensive value. But Thursday night, he caught my eye when he fought Montreal's Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Or should I say, babied the skinny Finn to the ice after letting the kid land several inconsequential rabbit punches. After all, it was the Hab's first NHL fight. Hagg was remarkably gentle, in a wise beyond his years way. It made me want to check him out, and guess what? He's been remarkably productive in 2020. Hagg has four points (one goal, three assists) in his last six games heading into the weekend. And he has seven PIM, seven blocked shots and 17 hits. Hagg still sits out games here and there, so he might be benched occasionally. But he can help in deep leagues when he's on the ice.

Adin Hill, G, Arizona (8 percent) – Antti Raanta has been cleared to play again, so Hill's time in Arizona's blue paint may be limited. But Hill is talented and Raanta can't be trusted from an injury perspective. The latter missed half of last season with a lower-body injury and is returning from another now. And Raanta looked more than rusty Saturday afternoon before he was yanked. Hill has played well in spurts with the Desert Dawgs and GM John Chayka prefers to look within to address injury back-fills. Stash Hill if your roster is deep enough, even for matchups. He might deliver even more.

Zach Parise, LW, Minnesota (21 percent) – Parise is no longer the fantasy beast he once was. But can you use a guy on pace for 30 goals and 50 points, with about one-third of them coming on the power play? Thought so. Just watch that plus minus.

Wayne Simmonds, RW, Philadelphia (23 percent) – Simmonds has been a shell of his former self in the last two seasons. I don't get it. He has always been a good skater, so he should be able to keep up with the speed of today's game. Chemistry with line mates is critical for him — he doesn't drive offense, so he needs the right guys to help him shine. Simmonds seem to have solid chemistry with Pavel Zacha and Nico Hischier, and he was riding a four-game, four-point (one goal, three assists) streak heading into the weekend. That includes eight shots and one power-play point. This could be the start of his resurrection. Maybe.

Back to folding.

My staff league experience this week made me give pause and reconsider my position in my home league. After winning the title in six of 10 years last decade, my team has faltered. Badly.

Or should I say, I got caught with my proverbial pants down.

It was built on superstars, but suddenly, a chunk of them seemed old. I just didn't have a strong cohort of 26-29 year olds, other than John Tavares.

So, I folded. You already know I moved Taylor Hall, Marc-Andre Fleury and P.K. Subban. Now Anze Kopitar, Nicklas Backstrom and Brent Burns are gone.

In return, I got back Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Victor Olofsson, Noah Dobson, Andreas Johnsson and Alexandar Georgiev. And a top-eight pick from the tasty 2020 junior class come June.

My team is still decent and I'll push hard in a wild-card game come playoff time. But instead of continuing to sink, I'll be pushing for the title in two seasons. I have arguably the best farm team in the league, a potential top-two junior pick in 2020 and that number eight pick, too. Plus Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Jonathan Huberdeau, William Nylander and Brock Boeser.

I wasn't about to sacrifice my prospects — numbers three, four, five, 13 and 14 from RotoWire's top 200 list. Check 'em out — it's a great list.

Raise or fold. Be realistic. And then make your choice.

Until next week.