2022-23 Potential Busts

As much as we'd like to think the best of every player when planning for our fantasy drafts, we need to enter the season with realistic expectations. Some players' performances from 2021-22 will be the best we ever see out of them. For fantasy managers, the key is to identify and avoid overpaying for these potential busts. Whether a player's success was driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage or good linemates, it's important to let someone else in your league overpay for prime regression candidates. Many of the players on this list have the potential to put up good numbers, but they may still fall short of being worthy of their draft position. 

Johnny Gaudreau - It's no secret Gaudreau was one of the best players available in free agency this summer. The Blue Jackets will undoubtedly be happy to have him, but fantasy managers should exercise caution with players such as Gaudreau who are coming off massive performances in contract years. Gaudreau exceeded his previous top point total by 16 in 2021-22, and his plus-64 rating is sure to regress as he adjusts to new linemates on a new team. The 29-year-old will probably end up being just fine, but someone else can pay the second-round price on draft day for a winger not known for his consistency. 

Nazem Kadri - In a similar vein, Kadri turned a huge career year into a hefty payday this summer. In this case, Kadri's going from a championship roster to one that's experienced a lot of turnover since last season. He's produced as a solid second-line center throughout his career, with his ability to agitate remaining a plus. However, expect the 31-year-old to take large steps back in assists and power-play production one year removed from his 87-point explosion with the Avalanche. 

Chris Kreider - Kreider nearly doubled his previous best goal total last season, potting 52 in 81 games. That came with a shooting percentage of 20.2 -- that's only 0.6 percent higher than his 2020-21 mark, but still well above a sustainable rate. While he won't be playing for a new team like Gaudreau or Kadri, Kreider's fantasy value has taken a hit with the addition of Vincent Trocheck to the Rangers' power play. Both Kreider and Trocheck are net-front presences, with the former cashing in exactly half of his goals with the man advantage last year. Any reduction in power-play production could send Kreider's numbers back to the 40-50 point range they'd been at previously. 

Jason Robertson - One of the hardest things to predict in fantasy is how a player will bounce back after missing the start of the season as an unsigned RFA. Robertson will face that fate this year, as he remains without a new contract following the expiration of his entry-level deal. He was a fantasy gem in 2021-22 with 41 goals and 79 points in 74 contests, but missing time in camp and potentially into the regular season will put him a step behind the rest of the league. Most managers won't hesitate to draft him, but he was already a regression risk after shooting 18.6 percent last season, and the murkiness of his Opening Night status should lead to him going a round or two later. 

Kevin Fiala - Fiala finally cashed in on his potential last year, exceeding 30 goals and 80 points for the first time in his career. He beat his personal best in goals by 10 and posted a whopping 31 points more than he'd had in any other year. The Kings are a team on the upswing, much as the Wild were last year, but there's a non-zero chance Fiala ends up on the second line with Phillip Danault, which would lead to more of a two-way role rather than the pure offensive gig he's best suited for. He should still be steady on the power play, but there's some risk that he won't get back to the point-per-game mark in 2022-23. 

Jack Campbell - Campbell is unquestionably an upgrade in goal for the Oilers over the tandem of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen from last year. As such, Campbell is viewed as a No. 1 goalie both for his team and in fantasy. Wins shouldn't be a problem for him with the offense he'll have for support, but the Oilers' blue line remains a weakness in a way that the Maple Leafs' defense wasn't last year. You should consider Campbell a somewhat risky option that would ideally be the second goalie on your fantasy roster rather than the first. 

Devon Toews - Toews was something of a unique case last season, racking up 57 points, including 12 on the power play, despite being more renowned for his defensive skill. Playing alongside Cale Makar has its upside, but the flip-side of that coin is that any regression among the Avalanche's defense is likely to start with Toews' offense taking a step back. At 28 years old, he's likely as good as he's gonna get, and if Bowen Byram finds more success on the second power-play unit, Toews' offense could dry up quickly. 

Evan Bouchard - Bouchard is another blueliner that has a lot of scoring potential, but he may not see optimal usage in 2022-23. Tyson Barrie is likely to begin the year on the top power-play unit, and the Oilers are usually efficient enough that the second unit gets mostly scraps. Bouchard should be on that second unit, though a slow start on offense could see him cede that role to Darnell Nurse. Bouchard had 43 points in 81 games last year as a 22-year-old, so he's still trending upward, but he won't blossom as a true fantasy stud until he's pumping one-timers and dishing to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the top power-play unit. 

John Klingberg - At 30 years old, Klingberg will suit up for a team other than the Stars for the first time in his career in 2022-23. He's viewed as a midseason trade candidate, but he will likely get upwards of 60 games in Anaheim's unsteady offense before that happens. The Ducks had a solid power play last year (21.9 percent conversion rate) with Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk and Jamie Drysdale running the show, but Klingberg is expected to be on the top unit from the start. With both veteran and young options available, he'll need to hit the ground running to be worth a top-150 draft spot, as his even-strength production inspires little confidence and probably won't improve this year. 

Tony DeAngelo - DeAngelo did an excellent job of rehabbing his career in 2021-22, posting 51 points in 64 contests while avoiding controversy and the spotlight that comes with it. His reward: a draft-day trade from the Hurricanes' growing offense to the defense-first, rebuilding, John Tortorella-coached Flyers. The 26-year-old defender should get the first look on Philadelphia's top power-play unit, but the Flyers will be missing star center Sean Couturier (back) and potentially winger Joel Farabee (neck) at the start of the year, taking some of the buzz out of the offense. Along with a likely significant hit to his plus-minus rating, DeAngelo could see his scoring tail off, and he'll need to be at his best defensively to avoid a trip to his new coach's oft-used doghouse. 

Troy Terry - A breakout star last year, Terry ended the campaign with 37 goals and 67 points in 75 contests. The biggest concern with Terry is regression, as the team around him didn't improve a whole lot and he converted his shots at a gaudy 19.3 percent last year. At age 25, his game should continue to grow, but he may nonetheless experience a step back in 2022-23 as the Ducks continue to progress as a team. He should still have the top-six role and power-play time he earned last year, but with no shortage of talented forwards in the NHL, it may be best to let him slide a bit in fantasy, as it seems unlikely he'll match last year's level of production this season.